well,. wrote:
disgraceful_admin wrote:This 10k could be incredible if Bekele and Farah are running and healthy.
Think of their medals.
Now consider one of them ran 3:28.X in the 1500m last year (Farah).
and Bekele just ran a marathon likely comparable to a 2:04.X in Berlin/Dubai conditions if not 2:03.X given irregular pacing, with only a few weeks' training.
One of the world's fastest over 1500m (and 1500m is stacked) going against one of the fastest over 42,000m (again, marathoning is also at its all time most competitive now) in a 10,000m on the track.
We all know that a fast marathon alone doesn´t guarantee a fast 10k. With his injury history, I doubt KB will be able to do the necessary speed work on the track (this was exactly what happened to Geb).
A fast 1500m doesn't guarantee a fast 10k either.
26:25 for Farah? How much of a kick will he have in a 26:25 race with surges thrown in by multiple legit gold medal contenders from the very start?
Let's say they go through 5k in 13:20. Already it's down to a pack of 6 at the front (Farah, Bekele, Karoki, Tanui, Kamworor, Jeilan?) and Kamworor surges, slightly gapping the other 5.
Over the next 2 laps, this gap grows to 10m from 2nd place (we'll say it's Jeilan). Does Mo try to close the gap to Kamworor? If he doesn't, it's a fair bet he loses the gold. It's also a fair bet that he'd be the one doing the gap-closing in this psychological battle.
Repeat this and you have a situation where finishing kick will be closer to 60 than 50s.