chances for a BQ? good? bad? Indifferent?

Very similar to you: 5'7, male, > 30, ran 3:16 at NYCM at 160lbs.

At the time my 10k PR was 38:45 and half 1:27. So this is for the reality check. That being said, I am not slow twitch and suck at marathons.

The calculators you find online are usually too optimistic for the marathon for most of us.

I'd say first train for sub 40 10k (which would make 1:30 half very feasible if not a piece of cake since it's an easier time).

Ramp up the mileage, lose weight towards 150-155 at most and once you crack 1:30 half you'll be in sub 3:20 shape, and perhaps 3:15 if you can put enough work for the marathon (mileage etc.).

OK, so it sounds like you run 7:45 for tempo runs and since January, your running volume has been somewhere around 32 to 40 MPW (not sure if the split is 50/50 or 63/27 based on what you wrote).

Based on this, you do have some work to do, but over time, I think a BQ could be in the realm of possibility. It may take a little longer, it really depends on how much you can focus on the different elements that will yield improvement.

As others have said, it seems that you may have the opportunity to lose weight and assuming that is the case, you need to do that. Unless you have a truly stocky build, it seems 10 to 20 lbs is possible. Start by looking at your overall eating habits and zeroing on “low hanging fruit” such as too much eating late in the day, low-nutrient calories etc.

Next, start to convert more and more of your walking mileage to running mileage.

Concurrently with that, I would examine your current training: It is important to train all the necessary systems appropriately. I would suggest reading a good book on training “science”. For marathoning, I personally feel that “Advanced Marathoning, 2nd Edition” by Pete Pfitzinger and Scott Douglas is an excellent resource. It explains well the different types of training intensities (e.g. lactate threshold, VO2 max etc.) and provides good schedules for a number of weekly mileage ranges (the first of which ranges from 33 to 55 MPW, which is a range you may be ready for).

Run more races (e.g. 5K, 10K etc.). Aside from great training, you will get more data on your current pace capability and a better prediction of what marathon pace you can realistically target at first. Plus, this data will allow you to much better hit the right intensities for the above mentioned training (L-T, VO2 max etc.).

If not already doing so, adopt a proactive injury prevention regime which should include strength training (including the all-important core), mobility and soft tissue work (e.g. foam roller). The above mentioned book has some good info, but there are a lot of good resources out there. I like Jason Fitzgerald’s strength routines (mostly body weight and done right after your runs). You can get overwhelmed with info on this, key is to find something reasonable that you can integrate into your schedule and STICK WITH IT.

Finally, treat recovery as part of your training. Be mindful of sleep, diet and the mobility and soft tissue routines. The better you recover, the more chance you have of doing all your workouts at the right intensity and getting the available improvement.

Good luck!!

For another reference point, before Chicago 2015 I ran 19:2x and 1:32:xx (probably was in 1:30 shape but it was 3 weeks out from marathon so took it a bit easy) and then ran 3:14:xx.

Was your half super hilly or something? If not, maybe more long runs would benefit. You have the speed for sub 3:15. Just need to be able to hold it. The half time maybe indicates that this is what you should focus on. I like pfitzinger with the midweek 12-15 milers.

On the whole run/walk strategy. Here in South Africa there is currently a lot of talk around run/walk after the women's winner of the Comrades marathon last year ran a very good time using this strategy.

Her coach (he also coached the men's winner) says a lot of his athletes see an improvement using run / walk of up to 20 minutes on a standard marathon. General advice I read somewhere (I'm not sure if it is attributable to this specific coach) says 5 to 6 walks of 60-120 seconds each during a marathon. Obviously you need to factor in the course hills etc in your planning.

"I have worked far too hard to believe it's impossible"

If you're so impressed with how hard you worked to get a 1:41 half, you're not going to like how hard you'll have to work to run a 3:15 full.

"I have not suffered any injuries in my training to believe my self-training methods do not work."

Your self training seems to work sufficiently well enough to get you a 1:41 half without getting injured. If that's your end goal, congratulations. If your goal is a 3:15 (or 3:13ish if you actually want to be able to enter Boston) full marathon it's way too early to be patting yourself on the back.

I didn't mean the "have you run a marathon" to be an accusation. It was a legit question because you were referencing half marathon times and shorter distances but asking about BQs. If you've run a marathon that becomes a helpful data point. I also didn't say you couldn't qualify, just not in the short term. It will take time and more running.Here's what I mean: you say you can 'walk' at 9:49 pace, and your previous marathons employed run/walking. Sometimes you run:walk 50:50, but lets say for the marathon you run:walk at 70:30, in order to run 3:15 your 'walk' at 9:49 pace for 30% of it would then mean for the rest of the time you would have to run the other 70% at 6:25 pace. Do you think you are in shape to run 18 miles at 6:25 and walk 8 miles at 9:49? Based on a 7:42 paced half marathon, probably not right now. Therefore, your best option is to run more, be patient, and see what you can get to. I don't know your age, but for a lot of people a BQ is a multi-year plan.I did not mean to be condescending, I have not qualifed for Boston, I have only run 1 marathon. However, if my best half marathon time was greater than 1/2 of my BQ qualifer, I would not expect to qualify in the short term. I would be looking at a longer term plan (which is what I'm doing) with intermediate goals along the way. You can certainly do better. I believe anyone that's not already running crazy high mileage and executing a perfect diet has room for improvement.

Hmmm.While I appreciate a lot of the previous strategies and those after your posts, all of which have been done in a constructive way, offering genuine advice, I am not sure that I agree with your take on my mindset.Who said I was impressed? If I was impressed with it, certainly I would not be asking for advice on how to improve in my training, etc. Who said I had to like it? While I do love running as a sport, there are training days that I do like and training days that I don't like.For example, I did a 5K time trial (on a flat treadmill) with a first mile at a 7:09 pace and negative splitting the other 2.11 at a 13:28 (6:24 pace). This was on Thursday, 4 days after the half marathon. No, this was not "fun," but yes, I did like my time.The next thing is about patting myself on the back? Sir, what, precisely, would be gained by talking myself down and quitting because of my apparently paltry 1:41 (to you) on a course on which the winning time of the day was 1:19? Should I put up the shoes and sack my goal simply because you don't want to see me "patting myself on the back?" In fact, is this even what I am doing? This is a running forum, sir, and I would be far more foolish to NOT ask for advice, knowing that I have at least a decent half marathon (given the hills on that course). I'd farther implore you to try La Jolla and the 200', 440' and 150' hills, along with the smaller grades that pepper the course and then ask me if I am patting myself on the back.Again, for those who have sincerely given me advice positively or negatively, I appreciate it. However, sir, I am not sure what you are trying to accomplish other than try to discourage a runner who, admittedly, may not be as fast as you are, from having any sense of pride for any accomplishment.We can't all be elites, dude.Now, fundamentally,

WorkHarder wrote:

"I have worked far too hard to believe it's impossible"

If you're so impressed with how hard you worked to get a 1:41 half, you're not going to like how hard you'll have to work to run a 3:15 full.

"I have not suffered any injuries in my training to believe my self-training methods do not work."

Your self training seems to work sufficiently well enough to get you a 1:41 half without getting injured. If that's your end goal, congratulations. If your goal is a 3:15 (or 3:13ish if you actually want to be able to enter Boston) full marathon it's way too early to be patting yourself on the back.

You're asking advice on a running forum while you are still walking in races. You don't need to be elite to not walk in a race.

Walking in races?While I walked and ran in my initial marathons, I have not walked in any 10Ks, 5Ks, or the like.I do walk in my training, sure, but I have not represented that I consistently walk in a race, except for in my past marathons.Furthermore, I don't gather you actively scrutinize your own running quite as carefully as you, personally, are attempting to pick apart mine.So is the positivity of the attempt to try for a goal an -affront- to running in general because I don't have the times yet. Did some people just wake up with a BQ? NO, of course not.I should be able to be at a time and seek improvement, no matter who I am, who I am not, who I know, or whether or not I know anyone at all.Now, do you have anything -constructive- to add?I can firmly guarantee you without a doubt that if someone asked for similar advice in a similar way, and I was in a better state physically and time-wise as you must illustriously be, I would be FAR more supportive to them and ENTIRELY less patronizing.Thanks.

hullllo wrote:

You're asking advice on a running forum while you are still walking in races. You don't need to be elite to not walk in a race.

letsrun is not about support. this is rookie mistake #1.

Ike Unker wrote:

Letsrunners:

So, yesterday, I ran a 1:41:10 at the La Jolla Half Marathon....this is a course that I would consider among the more difficult ones, and I would estimate doing better on flats. I went through the first 6 miles at 45:05 and the last 7.1 at 56:05.

My 5K PR was set last year at 19:35.

Currently, I train at a pace roughly around my La Jolla pace on my tempo runs not at race pace. (With La Jolla's hills, that might skew the ratios).

But, knowing that I train regularly and that I need a 7:26 per mile to achieve a 3:15, what are my realistic chances of qualifying? And, what is the best way to stay on (or get on) track?

Thanks

I think your chances are poor to fair. Maybe 25%. The 5k times are *moderately* encouraging. The focus on walking is not. As has been noted, the weight has to go. You’ll get more out of a 10 or 15 pound weight loss than you can imagine. Racing more 5k’s, 10k’s, etc. as has been mentioned will help too. But remember this – if you want to run a 3:15, you had better get yourself into 3:10 shape. If you get yourself into 3:15 shape, good. But that means you have NO ROOM for error, no margin at all. Margin for what? Well, like taking a leak once, twice, or three times. Or having to move your bowels at mile 16 (done it, and BQ’d). Or a hot day. Or a cold day. Or a course with more hills than you realized. Or just a day when you don’t have that snap in your legs. If you have to rely on everything going perfectly, it’s unlikely to happen Good luck to you on your quest – I wish you well.

The good news is your 19:35 5K. The bad news your 1:41 HM. Let's say adjusting for hills you could have done 6 minutes faster which I think is generous. That gives you a 1:35 HM. With a 19:35 5K you should be able to run much faster than 1:36 in the HM.

What this means is that you aren't running enough. You have the speed but not the endurance. You get the endurance by running high mileage consistently for an extended period of time.

You also need to lose weight. I'll use myself as an example, I'm 5'11" and 145 lbs. I used to be 160-165 lbs and struggled to BQ. I increased my mileage and lost weight and now I easily BQ. Honestly, a BQ isn't that hard if you put in the work. Plenty of us have no natural talent (I was the kid picked last for sports teams in school) and have managed to do it.

I think you may have a shot if you train properly. You have about 18 weeks if you find a September marathon before the registration deadline. Spend 6 weeks transitioning out of walking to 100% running. If I read your earlier post correctly (1000 miles in 13 weeks) that put you at 75 MPW. From there follow a 12 week marathon training plan. I like Daniels, others like Pfitzinger or Hanson or Hudson. Feel free to modify the plan to suit your needs as long as you meet the general intent.

And you need your flame proof underwear here. Pushback to snark will just get you more pushback. Next time just ignore it.

Let's take if back a notch here and keep it simple. The average runner starts to regress when they make things too complicated.

You seem fixated on your race times (which isn't a bad metric necessarily), but I think you should redirect that fixation on your weekly mileage. Or at least equally. But the fact that you haven't even mentioned your weekly mileage(?) is a concern.

This is how you get your BQ within the next 6-12 months...

Straight up, you need to be running 60-70 miles a week at a minimum! The more the better, but if your body's used to running 40 mpw regularly, you're not going to get much higher that 60 mpw regularly within a year. Be ok with that. Bump it up every year.

Oh and on that note, if you're not already thinking long term, do that. Think in terms of 3 years, not 3 months!

The most important thing I've found though is to run 80% of your running really easy. Like ridiculously easy. Say your race pace is 7:15, then run easy no faster than 9-10 minute miles. If you run this easy, you won't need to walk in training anymore - my assumption is that you only walk because you're running too fast all the time. Save the 20% hard for tempo, etc. Read up on 80/20 Running for more info.

Finally, don't listen to others about dropping weight - let it come off naturally or not at all. Otherwise that's a recipe for an instant stress fracture, I see this happen all the time, and injuries regress your training waaaaaay more than dropping down to a magical weight number! I've dropped my half marathon time in the past 2 years from 1:29 to 1:20, basically staying at the same weight of 175-180 pounds. So be concerned about weight as in watching your diet, but not obsessive.

Okay, I appreciate the feedback, so I will give you more to work with inasmuch as what is working and what does not.

When I am logging miles, for instance, it would all seem, at least to me, where you put the rendering. For instance, in yesterday's mileage

#1--

5.72 run in 43:59

(.31 walk)

.66 run in 4:30

(.48 walk)

.47 run in 3:22

(.45 walk)

.5 run in 3:42

(.43 walk)

.48 run in 3:21

At this point, I could log 7.83 (58:54)running miles and 1.67 (23:57) walking miles in a collective 9.50 miles in 1:22:51 at an 82/18 ratio and call it done. However, this still puts me 2.09 miles from home. Not planning on running anymore at this time, I decide to walk the 2.09. This puts me at a collective 7.83 run and 3.76 walk, which is still a 67/33 ratio.

Assuming honesty and truth in representation, and after an afternoon walk of 3.72 miles (one complete loop around a collection of streets), this then puts my overall logged mileage at 7.83/7.48 for the day..which looks like 51% running and 49% walking. Therefore, a quick look will not show that the original 7.83 running was done with only 1.67 of walking with it, for a total of 9.50.

The day before, I did .5 warm-up miles on and a 3.11 treadmill run in 20:53 with pretty even splits 6:39-6:44-7:30[1.11])(it was wet outside), followed by 2.3 miles of walking with inclines from 5-11, then some cross-trainer, stairs and stationary bike.

When evaluating my chances, this should give more of an indication of my fitness level and potential, I hope.

You have about a 2% chance, assuming that everything (weather, wind, conditions, mood, attitude, training, taper, etc.) is PERFECT. So...shoot for the stars, I guess.

I get what you are trying to say and I understand that walking is a part of your training routine. And I am not saying that you need to completely stop doing that. I would just stop separating it from your running and including it in training.

Your example of "yesterdays mileage" would look more like this:

11.59 miles in 1:35 (made this up but its the total time from when your run started to when it ended).

Don't count the afternoon walk.

You can still do the same training, but I think mentally this will help you look at your distance in time in a new way that will help you improve. So don't say you ran 7.83 miles @ 7:15 pace. You did 11.59 @ 8:15 pace.

there's nothing more pathetic than people starting threads on Letsrun about BQ potential.you are not a good runner

Ike Unker wrote:

Letsrunners:

So, yesterday, I ran a 1:41:10 at the La Jolla Half Marathon....this is a course that I would consider among the more difficult ones, and I would estimate doing better on flats. I went through the first 6 miles at 45:05 and the last 7.1 at 56:05.

My 5K PR was set last year at 19:35.

Currently, I train at a pace roughly around my La Jolla pace on my tempo runs not at race pace. (With La Jolla's hills, that might skew the ratios).

But, knowing that I train regularly and that I need a 7:26 per mile to achieve a 3:15, what are my realistic chances of qualifying? And, what is the best way to stay on (or get on) track?

Thanks

This should have posted like this

And your comments help with that realization or the establishment of any goals in which way?

What you apparently want me, and others to do is just to stop trying because you arbitrarily do not feel that we can get to the goal we have set for ourselves. Let me remind you of this: We have set this goal for ourselves. Now, if you are not going to be part of the build-up, I certainly and wholeheartedly do not consent to you being part of the break down.

You go with your bitter self.