What if Mo Farah had gone for a WR 1500m

I believe several runners could have broken the 1500 record. I have to admit that I hope they don't.

Deanouk wrote:

A laughable and lame attempt at trying to show any credibility.

Your method of working out splits is nonsense.

Farah's first lap was no faster than 54.9.

Your suggestion they ran 54.1 and 54.5 is clearly wrong just using the need eye. There is no way Farah is only 0.4 behind Kiprop at 400m. That's less than 3m in distance. Anyone with a clue can see that there was 5m between them.

Edit. I made a mistake. The suggestion they ran 54.1 and 54.6 (not 54.5 as I put above) is wrong.

There was more than 0.5 (or 3.5m ) between them. It was 5m/ 0.7

Your earlier post suggesting EPO has an effect over 400m is a red herring. It would be negligible. Perhaps a couple of tenths at most for a miler. It's difference over 1500m would be more like 3 seconds.

None of those that have run 3:26/3:27 or 3:43 have shown anything approaching 47.5 400 ability between them. Not 1.

In fact none have run sub 1:43 for 800, where EPO use would probably make a difference of around 1-1.5 secs.

However practically all of them (El G, Lagat, Morceli, Ngeny) showed incredible endurance over 2,3 or 5k.

The ability to run significantly faster over 3000m than the WR had been 10 years previous by a supposed 'pure miler' with little credentials over 800 and nothing approaching sub 47.5 400 ability suggests either incredible and hithertoo unheard of endurance for milers, or else something more relative to the era in which they ran.

The only sub 3:30 1500 runner who has actually run 46 for 400 is Coe. His speed is backed up by 1:41 800m.

If these so called 3:26 1500 guys also had 46 second 400 ability like Coe, then they should have the ability to go 1:39/1:40 low for 800 too. Yet none have got anywhere near.

And don't you dare try and justify this nonsense by saying that they couldn't be bothered to run an 800 because it didn't have the kudos of the 1500. They would all have been capable of smashing Kipketer's 800 WR at the time, himself only having a 46.8 pb, which would be a huge kudos for anyone.

There are 3 conclusions that have to be made from your adamant claim that 3:26 athletes must have 46 sec 400 ability.

1. They would all have been 1:39/1:40 800 runners with that combination of speed and endurance. None have bettered 1:43.

2. If they were all as fast as Coe over 400 yet slower than him over 800 then his endurance must have been better than theirs and he was capable of significantly faster than the 3.29 he ran.

3. The 3:26 brigade must have had unhuman levels of endurance that was derived from EPO use or something similar.

Or, of course there is a 4th possibility. That your suggestion they could run 46 seconds is nonsense.

Pick whichever line you consider the best fit!

laughable ??

laughable is your flawed method

you didn't even realise the camera was moving & claimed moving camera gives same view !!!

nonsense is using flawed method of moving camera

i used freeze frame & direct distance measurements allied to ~ 54 - 54.5s speed

this is embarrassing

you are still claiming your wrong method with moving camera angle is correct ???

it was 54.6/54.7

do you not understand the concept of a different camera angle & different angle of viewing ???

naked eye is nonsense

not enough accuracy

it was 54.1 & 54.6/54.7

he is 0.5/0.6s behind

read properly

no

it is ~ 4m

no it isn't

naked eye is useless

you have to use ruler measurements on a big screen

wishful wrote:

I dunno man, that 3:28, I feel like for someone who has only come out and raced that event for real once, if that was his focus than he could have at least gone low 3:26 on the perfect day

If that night in Monaco wasn't the perfect day, then I can't wait to see Kiprop run 3:24 and another 12 guys under 3:30

big surprise

no

it is correct

no

it was ~ 4m

it was ~4m / 0.5 or 0.6s

is this a joke ??

you are saying epo doesn't help 400 ???

why have iaaf/wada not followed your lead & made epo legal for 400 guys ???

wrong

it woud be 0.5/0.75s for 400

is this a joke ???

you claiming epo only helps a mile by a couple of tenths ???

then how does it help a mile by just coupla tenths ???

eh ???

where is your proof ???

where is your record of their flat-out fully rested 400s at their 1500/mile peak ???

where is their record of flat-out 800s at their 1500/mile peak ???

what did you miss about noah splitting an outrageous 49.8/49.9 then holding on for 1'44-mid in his 2'11.9WR ???

what 800 coud he have run that day ???

what 800 ability is indicated by a 1'46+ last 800 in athens where the last 800 was virtually speeding up all the way & not 2s +ve split ???

wrong

only hicham showed exceptional 2k/3k ability at/near 1500/mile peak

noah had 4'50pb

how is that close to 4'44 ???

bernie had rubbish 7'33pb at time of 3'26+ & he got blown away in last lap of that 3k : 7'25 v 7'33

what great endurance is 7'33 for a 3'28+ guy at the time & 3'26+ the next year ???

if he coudn't be bothered with an 800 in '98 then what is your problem ???

i'm sure he has a twitter/facebook account & you can ask him

any guy who ran last 800 in athens in a virtually accelerating 1'46+ had to have incredible 800 ability

47.5 ability is for a general "pure 1500 guy" of 3'30 ability

you think hicham woud only have same speed when running 3'26.0 with 53.2 finish ???

correct

because he was primary 800 guy & 400 running is integral to that

no

he doesn't have an auto-time 1'41.7

not suitable for ratification

learn precision

where do you see me say they had same speed as coe ???

i suggested hicham/noah/bernie/asbel had 46.0 - 47.9 range but likely quick end

coe never ran 3'26/3'43 & has no place in the discussion

none bothered with a 800 at their 1500/mile peak

what 800 for noah in rieti ???

if Souly can run intrinsic 1'41.5 for 800 & he is a 1500/800 guy with not same calibre of 1500 as the big-4, what makes you think the big-4 coudn't have run similar ???

no

800 doesn't have same prestige as 1500

that is only 1 reason they didn't run it

is that a joke ???

his 46.8pb was in '94 when he had 1'43.2pb

he was immensely better globally in '97

the reason the likes of hicham didn't run a 800 was because he knew he coudn't run 1'41.1 but almost certainly below 1'42 but it wouda been deemed a "failure"

hicham in '98/'99 only ran distances where he thought he coud have broken the wr

that's why he ran 2k & 3k which he knew he coud break but not 800 which he coudn't but wouda been close

he didn't run a 1k which he probably didn't rate as much of a target, leaving it to noah - an oversight on his part as he wouda smashed 2'12 in '98

no

i said similar to Souly who ran ~ 1'41.5

where is hicham's 800 in '98/'99 ???

where is bernie's 800 in '01 ???

where is noah's 800 in '99 ???

no

he was not capable of significantly faster than 3'29.7pb

nor were the big-4 as fast as him over 400

i said they woud be quicker end of 46.0 - 47.9

coe was capable of 45-high

wrong in bernie's & noah's case

how many times do you have to be told about bernie's rubbish 7'33pb at time of 3'26+ ?

he was blown away on last lap

how coud he run rubbish 7'33 if on epo ???

how come noah coud only run a poor 4'50pb when wr was 4'44 if noah was on epo ??

how do rubbish 2k/3k times show great endurance let alone epo use ???

wrong

you have no 800 to go on at their peak

we have proxy for them in Souly who ran intrinsic ~ 1'41.5 last year

do you understand this concept of proxy ?

the correct explanation is that the big-4 had somewhere like 46-low/mid/high speed with the kenyans being the speedy ones & hicham the slow end of that 3 figure range - that's where his superior endurance allowed him to run faster 1500/mile than them

Metric Miler wrote:

I said around 2.0:

Centrowitz 1:44.6 3:30.4 -- 2.01

Willis 1:45.5 3:29.7 -- 1.99

Grice 1:47.0 3:35 -- 2.01

Kiprop 1:43.2 3:26.7 -- 2.00

Wote 1:45.0 3:30.9 -- 2.01

Ngeny 1:44.5 3:28.1 -- 1.99

Choge 1:44.8 3:29.5 -- 2.00

Ramzi 1:44.1 3:29.1 -- 2.01

Small tatse of the red pill.

try those again with 800 & 1500 in same season

then analyse every one of thoes races to see what they couda run each time in "perfect" race, smoothly drafted to bell for 1500 & for the 800 with 2s +ve splits, smoothly drafted to bell

then come back & offer some ratios...

ventolin^3 wrote:

Metric Miler wrote:

I said around 2.0:

Centrowitz 1:44.6 3:30.4 -- 2.01

Willis 1:45.5 3:29.7 -- 1.99

Grice 1:47.0 3:35 -- 2.01

Kiprop 1:43.2 3:26.7 -- 2.00

Wote 1:45.0 3:30.9 -- 2.01

Ngeny 1:44.5 3:28.1 -- 1.99

Choge 1:44.8 3:29.5 -- 2.00

Ramzi 1:44.1 3:29.1 -- 2.01

Small tatse of the red pill.

try those again with 800 & 1500 in same season

then analyse every one of thoes races to see what they couda run each time in "perfect" race, smoothly drafted to bell for 1500 & for the 800 with 2s +ve splits, smoothly drafted to bell

then come back & offer some ratios...

Of course, what the could have run...

You do realise these are the fastest times these guys ever ran? The season best times are even worse for your point. Sub 1:44 is incredibly rare amongst 1500 guys. The proof is there.

If you want to live in the alternate reality where you massage the numbers to fit your ideas then fine. But that's bad science. So don't be telling anyone here you are using facts or reason or 'physics'. You just mould the numbers to fit your preconceived conclusions.

eh ???

what else do you expect ???

if a guy is in peak 3'30 shape, we want to know their best possible 800 at the time, not years before or even early season in a leg-stretcher

did you not realise this ???

the question is best possible 800 shape at the time not years before or semi-serious effort

just looking at those times it is obvious you have little idea of the concept :

- Asbel ran a 1'43.17 all the way back in '09 when his 1500pb was 3'31.20 !!!

he has only improved his 800 on by 0.02s but his 1500 has come down by a massive 4.53s !!!

does that indicate he has run his best possible 800 ???

- Noah ran 1'44.62 en-route to his 2'11.9WR off suicidal 49.9

do you think his 1'44.49pb the following year is representative of an accurate measure of his 800 ability in rieti-'99 ???

he actually set his then 800pb in '99 en-route in a 1k !!!

he didn't do this once but twice in '99 !!!

- Ramzi in his doped up prime looked in 3'27+ shape in '08 but had 1'44.05pb from '06

he had coruscating speed from doping, good enough to win 800wc

do you think he only had 1'44.0 speed at his peak 1500 ???

do you think he coud win global 800 gold with only 1'44.0 speed ???

but those are the 800 times you have to use

as close as possible to best 1500 shape & then consider : how much time thrown away from

- lack of serious effort in secondary event

- leg-stretching exercise

- poor pacing

- poor drafting

- weather

is that a joke ???

Asbel - 1'43.1

maloofi - 1'43.5

baala - 1'43.1

chirchir - 1'43.3

aouita - 1'43.8

laloo - 1'43.2

souleman - 1'42.9

cram - 1'42.8

rotich - 1'43.6

those are the majority of < 3'30 guys not including the 800s of large slew of 3'30 - 3'31 guys who legitimately couda claimed a 3'30.00 if had perfect race

1'44.00 ability for a "pure 1500 guy" whose ultimate is 3'30.00 looks a ballpark number to start with

eh ?

clearly you don't understand "control" conditions

a guy who runs a "perfect" 3'30.00 has to have 800 in same shape with same "perfect" run, including maximal effort

eh ?

bad science is you posting a few guys, nowhere near comprehensive & attempting to draw conclusions without factoring in controls of "best possible 800 in best 1500 shape"

is that a joke ??

you offered small, cursory list & i put up a list of nearly all the < 1'44 by < 3'30 guys

your data set was small & poor & not even just for < 3'30 guys & even put in a 3'35 guy ???!!!

no

your conclusion that ~ 2.0 is correct ratio meaning majority of 3'30.0 guys shoud have 800 ability of the time as ~ 1'45.0 is a joke in terms of moulding to pre-conceived conclusions

you settled on 2.0 & tried to find fits to it without any consideration of best 1500 shape & best possible 800 at the time

nonsense

those are 800/1500 guys

not 1500 specialists like Kippy

~2.0 is an observation of 1500 specialists

states that 3'30 is easily possible with ~1'45

3'26.00 -> 1'43.00

Wejo,

Why do you continue to allow Ventolin to insult people on these boards?

It's counterproductive to actual discussion.

ventolin^3 wrote:

Sub 1:44 is incredibly rare amongst 1500 guys. The proof is there

is that a joke ???

Asbel - 1'43.1

maloofi - 1'43.5

baala - 1'43.1

chirchir - 1'43.3

aouita - 1'43.8

laloo - 1'43.2

souleman - 1'42.9

cram - 1'42.8

rotich - 1'43.6

those are the majority of < 3'30 guys not including the 800s of large slew of 3'30 - 3'31 guys who legitimately couda claimed a 3'30.00 if had perfect race

Is your response a joke?

You have listed 9 men under 3:30 who have run under 1:44, conveniently leaving out the man with the best combined performances at both distances, Coe.

Far from representing "the majority of < 3'30 guys", you do not mention the 20 other sub 3:30 men who haven't managed to break 1:44.0.

-El G, Lagat, Morceli, Kiplagat, Ngeny, Iguider, Farah, Kwemoi, Cacho, Niyongabo, Choge, Ndiku, D Komen, Saidi-Sief, Chepseba, Kipchirchir-Komen, Manangoi, Willis, Ramzi & Maree.

And of the 24 men with pb's between 3:30.0 - 3:31.0, only 2 of them have also broken 1:44.0, ~ Webb (1:43.84) and Bile (1:43.60).

That means 22 men haven't broken 1:44.0

So Metric Miler was absolutely correct. Far fewer elite 1500 guys have broken 1:44 for 800 than those who haven't. A sub 1:44 performance from a 1500 guy is rare.

In fact of the c. 54 men who have broken 3:31.0, only 12 have broken 1:44.0, and only 3 have broken 1:43.0.

12/54 is just over one fifth. So your claims are, at the least, misleading and wrong.

learn to read

i said vast majority of < 3'30 guys who have run < 1'44 not all

because all i listed had bona fide auto-timed 800s on proper 8 lane tracks all with running clocks & i happened to have seen every one of those on satellite

coe's best 800 with criteria of auto-time on 8 lane track is 1'43.07

so that counts

read

i said the vast majority of "pure 1500 guys" < 3'30 with < 1'44 not the ones who didn't break 1'44, most all from not running a serious 800 at their peaks

read

some of those outside criteria of "pure 1500 guy" with some 1500/3k or 1500/5k or 3k/1500 or 5k/1500 guys like mo/saidi-sief, mo, morceli, maree, choge, komen

others who are "pure 1500 guys" never bothered with serious 800 :

once again, what on earth does noah's 1'44.6 en-route to 2'11.9wr off a suicidal 49-9 indicate for a 800 in that shape ???

others who never ran a serious 800 at their 1500 peak of "pure 1500 guys" include of course hicham, who never ran a serious 800 ever !!!, bernie, niyongabo, cacho, iguider, kwemoi & chepseba

i see no diamond league calibre track run over 800 for any of these guys at 1500 peak

& that tells big story if you had semblance of analytical ability

most of those 1500 guys outside 3'30 were so desperate to break 3'30 that they hardly ever bothered with 800

webb's run is hugely significant

he hadn't broken 1'46 year before his 1'43.8 !!!

he ran 1'45-mid early in big year but no one was saying anything about this "pure 1500 guy's" 800 ability or whether he woud ever break 1'45

he got into a fast race v an elite canadian who almost won a 800wc & ran 1'43.8 !!!

webb showed what fast "pure 1500 guys" can run for 800 when forced to run to their limit : at worst a 1'43+

no

he had minimal, poor list of fast "pure 1500 guys" & made no effort to analyse any of their 800 circumstances ; many not being "pure 1500 guys" & many many more not bothering with a 800 at their 1500 peak

only statistic

no consideration of whether these guys ran an elite field 800 at their 1500 peak

for "pure 1500 guys" only thru lack of interest in 800 at 1500 peak

learn to read more than just read a list

Souly never ran a serious 800 in his life before '13 !!!

he was bronze medal winner at wc over 800 in same year !!! & less than 2y later ran an intrinsic

~ 1'41.5 !!!

this shows what a "pure 1500 guy" can run for 800 if he puts some semi-serious effort into 800

Souly is still primarily a 1500 guy

i'd expect vast majority of "pure 1500 guys" who have < 3'30 to be able to run < 1'44 if they had run a serious 800 at their 1500 peak, meaning quality field like diamond league

a virtually worthless stat

a stat has no meaning if the guys are not

1) pure 1500 guys

2) those pure 1500 guys didn't run an elite field 800 at their 1500 peak

3) if those guys by any chance did run an elite 800 at 1500 peak, they didn't put in 100% effort into that 800

no

i know how to look at stats & know which are of little value

the bottom line as Souly & others like cram & webb have shown, if a "pure 1500" of elite ability gets into a fast 800 at their 1500 peak, they woud expect to break 1'44

Metric Miler wrote:nonsense

rubbish

those are 800/1500 guys

you really don't have much idea about this

maloofi, baala, aouita, cram Souly & rotich were all initially 1500 guys who ran 800 off it

baala had absolute rubbish 800 of 1'45.92 before rieti-'02

no one in their right mind wouda called him an kinda elite 800 runner

however, in last race of '02 he got into fast 800 & ran 1'43.15 !!!

if you followed the sport, you woud see that this show what elite "pure 1500 guys" can run if/when they ever get into an fast, elite 800 at/near 1500 peak

not 1500 specialists like Kippy

wrong

over 1/2 of the 1'43.00

no

a "pure 1500 guy" who can run 3'26.00 shoud be looking at

~ 1'42.0

if Souly can run an intrinsic ~ 1'41.5 off mostly just 1500 ability, damn well sure a hicham or Asbel or noah or bernie wouda been close

every "pure 1500 guy" who ran 3'26 or has plans to had to be at 1 stage a 3'30 guy even if they never exactly ran a 3'30 but may have gone from 3'31 or even 3'32 to 3'29+ as hicham did with 3'31.16 to 3'29.59 missing out the 3'30s entirely

do you think his coach said to him

"you are a 3'30 guy, to run 3'26 you have to do nothing more than get better endurance, you need no speed improvement whatsoever" ???!!!

you think it is possible for a "pure 1500 guy" who is 3'30.0 to go to 3'26.0 with NO speed improvement at all ???

do some thinking

a 3'26.0 guy & 3'26.0 is ungenerous to hicham as finished off with a 53.2 !!! meaning he likely had more 3'25.5 in him that day if the pacing had been quicker to the bell, is likely to have 46.0 / 47.0 speed & i woud go 46.0 - 47.0 range

predictor says for 3'26.0 & not even more likely 3'25.5,

3'26.0 with

47.00 -> 1'42.32

46.75 -> 1'42.08

46.50 -> 1'41.85

46.25 -> 1'41.61

46.00 -> 1'41.37

a reasonable 800 expected for "pure guy 1500er" of 3'26.00 not withstanding hicham was more likely 3'25.5, is

~ 1'42-flat

which is decidely ungenerous...

What the heck is going on here Metric Miler?

I have not had time to read any of the incredible "volume of ventolin" posted on this thread so far.

That is because I know it is all wrong without reading any of it...so I saved a lot of time.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Go Metric Miler!

rjm33 wrote:

What the heck is going on here Metric Miler?

I have not had time to read any of the incredible "volume of ventolin" posted on this thread so far.

That is because I know it is all wrong without reading any of it...so I saved a lot of time.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Go Metric Miler!

Ventolin believes that 3:30 guys can all run sub 1:44 and therefore Kiprop can run 1:41.

Except as usual he is backed by neither statistics or common sense.

OK. So the same as Jon Orange=plasma shift and Renato Canova.Refractory weak mind disease is very prevalent at this forum.Oh well. Some things never change.

Metric Miler wrote:

rjm33 wrote:

What the heck is going on here Metric Miler?

I have not had time to read any of the incredible "volume of ventolin" posted on this thread so far.

That is because I know it is all wrong without reading any of it...so I saved a lot of time.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Go Metric Miler!

Ventolin believes that 3:30 guys can all run sub 1:44 and therefore Kiprop can run 1:41.

Except as usual he is backed by neither statistics or common sense.

rjm33 wrote:What the heck is going on here Metric Miler?

can't you read

I have not had time to read any of the incredible "volume of ventolin" posted on this thread so far

then you come in "ignorant"

big shock ?

That is because I know it is all wrong without reading any of it...

wow

re-incarnation of nostradamus ?

so I saved a lot of time

you didn't

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Go Metric Miler!

i'm happy you managed to find another RNA...

More nonsense.

Since when is 9 out of 29 athletes the "vast majority?"

Answer - Never!

There is nothing in IAAF rules stating that WRs have to be set on 8 lane tracks.

Coe was a 1:41.7 runner in fact not fantasy. It was a FAT from an electronic cell not a hand time. It was ratified by the IAAF and there is video evidence of the race. To suggest he is a 1:43.0 athlete is embarrassing to you, discredits your (already) unrealistic analysis and reaffirms an extreme bias.

Coe is the only man to actually run sub 1:42 and sub 3:30, and he was running 30 years ago.

Metric Miler wrote:Ventolin believes that 3:30 guys can all run sub 1:44 and therefore Kiprop can run 1:41

no

learn to read

i said expected 3'30 with likely 400 speed of 47-mid woud indicate "perfect 800" of 1'43.91

-> most "pure 1500 guys" of 3'30.00 shoud expect ultimate 800 time in peak 1500 shape of

~ 1'44.0

not

1'45.0

Except as usual he is backed by neither statistics or common sense

eh ?

stats mean little unless you have seen lotta the 800pbs of "pure 1500 guys"

hicham's 800pb is 1'47+ !!!???

do you seriously think that was his 800 ability when he ran 3'26.00 with 53.2 finish !!!???