Salazar says LA Marathon course is Rupp certified

I thought it might be a ploy at first, but Galen doesn't need ploys to dispense with this marathon field. It will be like a state champion entering a JV race (or perhaps a LRCer entering a charity 5k).

Ehhh. Meb was 4th in the last Olympics. Ritz is the former American Record holder at 5k, has run 2:07, and is and a three time Olympian. If those guys bring their A game this won't be easy for Rupp.

Hot weather scoffer wrote:

Ken Goe reports:....

Ploy or not a ploy? Discuss

Goe only writes fluff pieces concerning NOP. When Salazar-Rupp pull a DNS expect another fluff piece to posted almost immediately.

My take is that the heat makes it that much harder for Rupp. He's fairly tall, he trains in Oregon, it's his 1st marathon, and he's only run cool-weather half marathons as far as I can tell. He will also probably be instructed to drop out if he's not going to be in the top 3 so as not to mess up his indoor track season.

Heat will make the mental aspect of hanging on that much harder when everyone starts to feel bad toward the end. Of course Rupp could be a natural and blow everyone away but I don't think the heat favors him the way cool weather might.

55F overnight and low humidity. Only climbing to 81F.

So maybe 70F at noon with low humidity?

Hot weather scoffer wrote:

My take is that the heat makes it that much harder for Rupp.

Granted, yet another track 10k is different than a debut road marathon, but he ran pretty damn impressively in the WC heat and humidity.

Currently predicted 73F at the 10am start, 81F at 12pm approximate finish time.

He'll drop out if not in the Top 3 so as to not mess up his post-race workout.

Hot weather scoffer wrote:

My take is that the heat makes it that much harder for Rupp. He's fairly tall, he trains in Oregon, it's his 1st marathon, and he's only run cool-weather half marathons as far as I can tell. He will also probably be instructed to drop out if he's not going to be in the top 3 so as not to mess up his indoor track season.

Heat will make the mental aspect of hanging on that much harder when everyone starts to feel bad toward the end. Of course Rupp could be a natural and blow everyone away but I don't think the heat favors him the way cool weather might.

He trains in Oregon part time, and he runs on a treadmill in a sauna sometimes too.

He's run in Beijing twice, and he's been a good "heat" runner.

Rupp has demonstrated the ability to run a good race in the heat, at WCs last summer.

People love to dismiss Rupp as having all sorts of weak spots. Just yesterday, RoJo, in his piece on the "Big 3", cited Rupp as a guy who mostly runs his best races in indoor time trial conditions. Mr. Johnson knows better.

I sort of thought Rupp's 2012 Olympic silver run could be considered a mildly good race for him. Or how about his 26:44 AR 10,000, beating the great Paul Tanui?

Rupp's string of national championship wins might be considered worthy races too.

So, if you figure Rupp can handle heat, the real question is, can he handle 26.2? Looking forward to finding out.

Rupp might be great at the marathon but that remains to be seen.

Being good at shorter distances does not always translate to the marathon. For instance, Zersenay Tadese has the world HM record (58:23) and an Olympic bronze at 10000m. But he only has a 2:10:41 marathon PR which would have place him 5th at the US 2012 marathon trials. Teg and Bob Kennedy had a similar comparative falling off in results when they went to the marathon. The marathon is different enough that track performance is not very predictive of marathon performance.

So saying Rupp ran well in heat on the track has a bit of value but it's not at all conclusive in predicting how he will do in a debut marathon. You can also look at Ryan Hall (similar height and weight to Rupp) who was a great marathoner but never quite as good in the heat as he was in cool weather.

You have to look at the competitive landscape when comparing Rupp to someone like Tadese. Tadese was competing to win against the world's best; he was going out at 2:05-2:06 pace most the time hoping to be the last man standing. I'm sure he could have jogged a 2:08-2:09 with ease and no fear of blowing up. Rupp doesn't have to worry about being dragged along by a bunch of 2:05 guys. He can just relax in the pack and make his move late in the race, cruising in around 2:09 for the win. This will be nothing but a very tough long run.

OnPoint wrote:

Currently predicted 73F at the 10am start, 81F at 12pm approximate finish time.

What I'm seeing shows a start time before 7 am and under 60 degrees. If he takes 2:10 it might get near 70, but only later in the race.

That's the LA Marathon. The USOT starts at 10:06am PST on Saturday, women about 20 minutes after.

The 10 am start is a bend-over for NBC.

The 10 am start is a bend-over for NBC.

That may be true but I'd rather start at 10:00am than 9:00am or earlier.

rhizomes wrote:

You have to look at the competitive landscape when comparing Rupp to someone like Tadese. Tadese was competing to win against the world's best; he was going out at 2:05-2:06 pace most the time hoping to be the last man standing. I'm sure he could have jogged a 2:08-2:09 with ease and no fear of blowing up. Rupp doesn't have to worry about being dragged along by a bunch of 2:05 guys. He can just relax in the pack and make his move late in the race, cruising in around 2:09 for the win. This will be nothing but a very tough long run.

I completely agree with this (and have been making this point in offline discussions for the past week+). Everyone holds up Mo as another example of Salazar not being able to coach the marathon and that track speed doesn't translate to 26.2, and I think they are completely missing the point. Mo ran in a hugely competitive race and went for it, "blowing up" and running 2:08. If Mo had been in a race with a bunch of 2:10+ guys and decided not to push the pace, he would have looked like a great marathoner. I think the same thing will happen with Galen. I think he wins the race, but for better or worse, I don't think it will give a ton of insight into how good/bad he will actually be in the marathon.

I'm sorry, but you're wrong about Farah. He did not go out with the leaders at London. He went out in 63:07, while they were out in 62:29; indeed, he was gaped early on, and by intent. Thus, while you say he "went for it," he didn't. But as for Rupp, if one were a betting man or woman, it would be rational to bet that he'll do fine and will make the team. However, as so many properly point out, the marathon is a vindictive mistress, and the only way one can tell how one will handle the marathon is by actually running it. So I have no idea how he'll do; but I'm glad he's running it because it will make an already interesting race more interesting still.

The main variables for Rupp will be fluid management and attendant stomach issues that can arise.