Appearance Feel wrote:
How much money is an appearance fee? I can't see race directors spending thousands for a first timer.
This is just based on your feeling?
Even though appearance fees aren't published, it's easy to see the work that NYRR does to court debutants. They bring them out to NY and let them ride the lead van. The cost of that alone is thousands. Heck, NYRR sent a pacer for out to California to help Shalane run a 10k, and that was before she had ever done a marathon. Obviously they're putting up big money.
This 2010 NYT article says that top marathoners can get $400k, which is 15 to 20 times more than "lower tier runners" ($20k), and that 40-50 people at NY get some kind of appearance fee, even if it's "as little as $1000."
Another way of looking at it is this: Appearance fees and prize money serve a very similar purpose. They both help to ensure that you get a good field that runs fast. But appearance fees are far more important, because you don't need much incentive to run fast (because doing well helps athletes get more appearance fees down the road), and no incentive will make a mediocre talent truly fast. The article above supports this reasoning, as only about a third of NYRR's elite athlete budget goes toward prize money. So if you figure that $1k prizes are won by nobodies all the time, then you should figure that's a very lowball figure for NYRR appearance fees. (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/sports/04marathon.html?_r=0)
Also, your general skepticism of debutants doesn't make sense. You're suggesting that the marathon is such a different beast that it's impossible to know if someone will be able to do it. But any pro who runs a marathon has certainly done some longer road races first, and that gives you a very good idea of their potential.
Finally, being a debutant is actually a plus in some ways. If someone has any name recognition at shorter distances, there's an element of excitement and curiosity to see how well they'll do on what is increasingly becoming running's true premier stage.