rekrunner wrote:
Just do the best you can with basis and logic. But when there is room for doubt, uncertainty, or ambiguity, you are right, I will not be completely convinced one way or another.
The rarity of controlled studies doesn't mean that non-blinded anecdotes or propagated mythology transforms into solid proof.
Honestly I don't have any particular interest in convincing anybody that drugs work or don't. In some ways I find your adherence to "innocent until proven guilty" admirable.
I guess I just draw a different line on proof and probabilities and the burdens required.
We know that EPO works on some runners (albeit it not elite Kenyans, per se) in double blind studies. We know (as close as we can without controlled studies) that it works in other endurance sports. We know that people in running have used it an exhibited quite good gains (eddy, Cathal, deeja, etc). In extrapolating from that, it seems very reasonable for me to believe that it works on elite runners. I think that really puts the burden of proof on those who believe that it does not work on elite runners (plus whatever qualifications some want to put on that--born at altitude, training at altitude, etc). I understand the basis that Renato argues that it does not work. I find it an interesting hypothesis but I don't find the evidence that he marshals for that argument compelling.
A further factor is something I referred to earlier in the thread--just because it may not work does not mean that athletes won't use it. Vijay Singh used Deer Antler Spray. Paavo Nurmi took Rejuven, which I'm not convinced worked. Elite athletes search for an edge.