How many miles does it take?

Early Morning Runner wrote:

Let's take for example a 16 year old American male, in average shape (healthy weight and not sedentary) but having never trained in his life for running. He has "average" genetics; nothing that would help him easily run fast times but nothing that would ultimately set him back from attaining them either. How many miles of training does it take him to reach a sub 20 5k? 19? 18, 17, 16, 15, and so on? When does it become impossible for him to improve anymore?

I realize it doesn't exactly work this way but I'm interested to hear some people's thoughts on it.

At 16, I could break 20 for 5k off no training at all. Nearly 40 years later, it's not so easy...

I coach middle and high school XC. I see a lot of kids like you describe: not fat, mildly to moderately active. Even with all of that equal, there is a HUGE variability in raw running ability. The first week of middle school practice we turn the kids loose on a trail, with two options - an out and back that is about 3mi, or an out-loop-back that is about 5mi. Rolling hills but nothing extreme.

Even though none of these kids run much or at all over the summer, the range of ability is staggering. Some of them finish the 5mi loop faster than others doing 3mi. I run with them on occasion. Even early in the season, some kids can easily run 8:00 pace and carry on conversation. Others are huffing and puffing for breath even at 9:00 or 10:00 pace. Again to reiterate, all of these kids look essentially the same! Skinny white kids who do soccer or hockey or whatever during the summer.

Some of these kids have the potential to be a great runner and others will never break 18:00 for 5k no matter how much mileage they run. Their bodies just aren't ready for it.

That being said, for high school kids with no major injury issues who can run under 19:00 in his first season of training as a freshman or sophomore, this is the kind of progression I look for:

Sub-19: 40-50 mpw

sub-18: 50-55 mpw

sub-17: 60-70 mpw

sub-16: 70-95mpw*

Most kids run out of time before they achieve sub-16. If they run in college they pretty much always break sixteen on the track. Some run into injury problems around 60 mpw and so we can't just shove more mileage their way. Some just don't have the aerobic engine to get into the 16s for whatever reason - they respond to training, but not enough I suppose. Once in a while you get a kid who rockets to sub-16 off 45 miles a week.

There's no reason to assume training response isn't a normal distribution. For every kid that runs 16:00 off 45 mpw, there is probably one kid who can't run 18:00 on 90 mpw. Call it "untalent" - Rare, yes, but just as rare as talent.

Early Morning Runner wrote:

He has "average" genetics; nothing that would help him easily run fast times but nothing that would ultimately set him back from attaining them either.

Impossible to say. This was me at 15, and after 9 months of training I was able to run 19-mid for 5k. 2 more years got me down to 16:30, and after another 2 I was in the low-15' on the track.

It's hard to quantify talent, because when I started out, you'd think I had none. There's physical maturity/strength, and there's the physical makeup that might constitute genetic "talent". Some have both, in varying degrees. It's an interesting spectrum. The classic Kenyan that started running from a young age probably starts out with more of both than average. I started on the lowest end of physical maturity, and toward the high end of genetic talent (I can nearly wrap my hand fully around my ankle, for instance). I never had that high-end "pure speed" either. Many people start out the opposite: physically mature but less equipped with the physical makeup to get to higher levels easier.

So hard to say, i dont think you need that many miles. I have one kid running upper 16's right now, sophomore he does 30-35 miles a week. And another sophomore same miles running high 17's. Most of my kids can break 18 in their sophomore season on under 35 miles a week. I think when you get down to breaking 17 it is really when you need to start looking at higher milage of 40-45 from my experience

Hard to know capacity without having done some speed training, no? Your body will tell you it's capacity if you started getting injured from pushing too much or training incorrectly

Bob Kennedy was winning Footlocker and running about 30-35 mpw.