Rank the mid-d / distance events in order of most likley to least likely for a US medal at 2015 Worlds

Some percentages I'm pulling out of my ass for medal chances:

1) I'd give Simpson 60% to medal and Rowbury maybe 30%. 72% chance of an American medal

2) Ajee is probably around 60%, but our other two are contenders as well. Maybe 10% each? Roughly 68% chance of a medal.

3) Give Jager a flat 65% chance to medal. Probably the best shot at gold, or maybe tied with Ajee.

4) Centro will probably medal, but he can't be better than 50% to do so. I'll say 55% for a medal form any of the three.

5) Huddle has a great shot in a weak year, though if Defar actually runs her odds are hurt. 50% amazingly.

6) Hard to know where Rupp is. I'd guess 50% here too

7) Coburn has a better chance than the above; unlike Rupp or Huddle she could theoretically win the race. 55%

8) Symmonds is unlikely to make the final; maybe next year. Against this field, I'd give him 10% and the other guys zero.

9) None of the American guys are likely to medal, but all of them have a small shot. I think you are underestimating this team. 20% for a medal from one of them.

10) Agreed on women's 5K. Whatever the actual odds, they round to 0%.

I'll call them here.

W800- Silver for Ajee

M800- nothing

W1500- Bronze for Jenny (completes the trifecta)

M1500- Silver for Centro

Wsteeple- nothing

Msteeple- Jager gets gold!

W5000- nothing

M5000- Hill or True gets top 5 but no medal

W10000- Huddle for silver

M10000- Rupp for bronze

W1500

W800

WSteeple

MSteeple (best shot for gold)

M1500

M10000

W10000

M5000

M800

W5000

the letter why wrote:

5) Huddle has a great shot in a weak year, though if Defar actually runs her odds are hurt. 50% amazingly.

I liked the way you analyzed it. Can we get a new list if you factor in the fact that Defar only has WCard for the 5000 - not 10,000? The 5000 is a very hard event to medal in. The 10,000 would be a lot easier for her but she doesn't have a WC in that.

800: no way 5% chance 1500: centro 50/50 5000 any one of em could get bronze just maybe 10% chance 10,000 rupp if he slays the last 800 25% chance

I predict no medals in d/mid-d for US.

rojo wrote:

Here are my rankings but I'm sure my rankings can be changed as I did it while watching a baseball game. I had Huddle at #8 but moved her up. What do you think?

1).women's 1500 - Two strong medal hopesfuls + entrants

2) women's 800 - Ajee might be our very best shot but only 1 entrant and the 800 can be weird at times.Plus. how much better does Caster get?

3) Men's steeple - Jager only had to beat 2 Kenyans and he's got it.

4) Men's 1500 - Centro is running so well he deserves a medal but this event is loaded. Leo has done it in the past.

I agree with the majority of this list except I would put medal chances in the M1500 > than MSteeple. My reasoning is that there is only one good steepler. Jager has an off day and it is done. He has also said that he is thinking about gold, which is worrisome because there is a chance he blows up if he runs for the win as opposed to running for a medal. Leo and Centro have medaled before and Robby has an absurd kick that could help in a championship race. All three of those guys are RACERS that have a shot. The mens 1500 is one where in a slow race, a ton of guys have a shot.

To lazy at the moment for analysis.

Men's side:

Jager

Centrowitz (I have him here because of past merits, but all his last races stunk)

Rupp (besides USATF he only ran one true test in the Eugene 5000. Correct me if I'm mistaken.)

True (?)

Women's side:

Simpson

Rowbury

Flanagan (??)

Guess I'm pessimistic, but I have my doubts with other contenders (more power to them, of course!).

Women's 1500m

Women's 800m

Men's Steeple

Men's 10000m

Women's 10000m

Men's 1500m

Women's Steeple

Men's 5000m

Men's 800m

Women's 5000m

1- W800: Wilson should get silver, and Martinez has a shot at the medals as well.

2- M3000 SC: Best shot for gold from Jager, and even if he doesn't win, he should definitely be top three.

3- W 3000SC: Coburn's been bad recently, but she was sick, and I think she can rebound and win a medal in a weak event, and it could possibly be gold.

4- W1500: Simpson and Rowbury are both strong contenders, especially Jenny, but this event is so loaded that it may be harder than some of you seem to think. I do think Simpson will get at least bronze.

5- W10000: Huddle definitely has a great opportunity here, but anything can happen in this race.

6- M10000: Rupp's performance at USAs convinced me that he's ready to once again push Farah and the East Africans, but his inconsistency this year is obviously a red flag.

7- M1500: Centro's having a great year, but this race is so deep. When you consider Kiprop, Kiplagat, Makhloufi, Souleiman, Iguider, etc., I don't think he does it.

8- M800: Symmonds has a very outside shot if Rudisha sets a suicidal pace and he hangs back. Don't bet on it.

9- M5000: All three could place in the top half of the field, but none look to be in medaling position. True may have a small chance.

10- W5000: No chance.

Women-800-Silver- Ajee Wilson-

Men-800-nothing

Women-1500-Silver-Simpson gets pulled to American Record, Rowbury 4th.

Men-1500- Centrowitz- is a great championship runner, but gets 4th

Women-Steeple, Coburn shocks and wins Gold.

Men-Jager had Birech and the Kenyans beat in Monaco- gets Silver as Ezekiel Kemboi shows why he is a Championship meet runner.

Woman-5000- Ethiopia sweeps with the dream team G. Dibaba, Ayana and the legendary Defar- Hopefully the Americans can go sub 15.

Men-5000- nothing.

Women-10000-Huddle gets Bronze, Flanagan 5th The Womens 10000 is really weak this year, I think if Defar wants an EASY Gold she should run the Portland 10000 to get the standard, then winning Worlds at 10000 with no Tirunesh Dibaba would be EASY.

Men-10000- Kenyans run fast to try to beat Farah and Rupp surprises and gets Gold in a new American Record. (I do think the Kenyans will try a fast (26:25-26:30) pace this time, based on Their Trials at Altitude.

Women Marathon-nothing

Men Marathon- nothing

I now saw the London Mile. So if the race would be really slow Centro has a good shot. In Stockholm I think he deliberately slowed down in the last 200m to save his legs. At least possibly.

dendronotus wrote:

W1500

W800

WSteeple

MSteeple (best shot for gold)

M1500

M10000

W10000

M5000

M800

W5000

Ok I agree with you that Jager is our best shot for gold but you think Coburn has a better shot for a medal than Jager? You are crazy.

Jager is the 2nd fastest man in the world this year. Based on 2015, there seem to be only 4 people who could possibly beat him - the 4 kenyans. In the entire world,there are just 5 people counting jager within 10 seconds of his seaonal best.

In the women's steeple, coburn is 5th fastest this year. But unlike jager, she hasn't been running great recently - she's been running awful. Within 10 seconds of her time, there are 17 people in the world.

So I'm guessing some of my opinions will be in the minority, but here goes:

Women's 10,000m: Just gonna call it now: Huddle gold, Flanagan bronze, Infeld 5th. Great job, ladies!

Men's 10,000m: Kamworor f***s up Farah's game-plan, and Rupp finally outkicks him for a shocking silver. Oh yeah.

Men's 5,000m: It's the Dejen vs. Ben True show, Dejen nabs gold, but Ben with a silver, Galen with a bronze.

Women's 1500m: A lot of people are saying things like "especially Jenny" with respect to the Simpson / Rowbury chance of medal(s) here...but I'm going to approach it like American football: The closer you get to the playoffs, the better your team should be getting. Similarly, the closer you get to Worlds, the better you should be getting--if you're going to medal. Rowbury is doing that, but Simpson's going backwards. I vote Rowbury for silver, Simpson 4th.

Women's Steeple: Like Jenny going backwards in the 1500m, so too is Coburn recently, but I think Coburn still has a chance at bronze.

Men's 1500m: A medal here is entirely dependent on how Asbel chooses to win. If he wants to go out hard, zero chance for a medal for Americans, as Silas, Makhloufi, Iguider, and perhaps even Willis will go with him, at a pace that no American can sustain. However, if Asbel is feeling lazy, it's almost a guaranteed bronze for America, possibly silver.

Women's 5000m: Is Vivian Cheriyuot (sp?) or Mercy Cherono in this race? If so, indeed no chance for a medal (as Ayana and Dibaba would have taken the other 2). But if those 2 Kenyan ladies are both absent, I think a surprise bronze is in order for one of the American ladies, as I'm betting that Defar will over-estimate her fitness and finish slower than expected (read as: not quite have her kick back yet).

Men's Steeple: Without a rabbit it'll be hard to set up a 7:55-ish pace, and as a result it'll come down to who has a better kick, even if the winning time is 7:59. Sadly, with both Kipruto's back, I think Jager STILL comes in 4th, as much as I wish, wish, wish he would win gold.

Women's 800m: Caster is going to f*** things up by going out way too hard, Wilson will go with her and burn out, and American medal hopes will go up in smoke.

Men's 800m: I love our 800 guys, but damn, this is perhaps the most competitive distance event in the Championships. Americans 6th & 7th, with one of them having not made the final.

rojo wrote:

the letter why wrote:

5) Huddle has a great shot in a weak year, though if Defar actually runs her odds are hurt. 50% amazingly.

I liked the way you analyzed it. Can we get a new list if you factor in the fact that Defar only has WCard for the 5000 - not 10,000? The 5000 is a very hard event to medal in. The 10,000 would be a lot easier for her but she doesn't have a WC in that.

Defar does Not have a Wild Card for the 10000, but if She runs a qualifier of 32:00.00 or faster, Ethiopia would put her in the 10000 because it is a lock she would get Gold at 10000 with out Tirunesh Dibaba being there, the only 10000 I know of before the August 10th deadline is Portland, although if she wanted to run one, a race could be arranged for her anywhere.

In the 5000 she could get bronze at worst, at 10000 she would be a lock for Gold, I hope she runs Portland this weekend.