From the peanut gallery wrote:
Does anyone know if anyone has analyzed racing tactics rigorously, either using theory or data? Both are needed if we are going get any insight into this question.
Let's look at the 2012 Olympic 5000:
Place name Country OlyTime PR 2012 Best
1 Mo Farah Great Britain 13:41.66 12:53.11 12:56.98
2 Dejen Gebremeskel Ethiopia 13:41.98 12:46.81 12:46.81
3 Thomas Pkemei Longosiwa Kenya 13:42.36 12:49.04 12:49.04
4 Bernard Lagat United States 13:42.99 12:53.60 12:59.92
5 Isiah Kiplangat Koech Kenya 13:43.83 12:48.64 12:48.64
6 Abdalaati Iguider Morocco 13:44.19 13:09.17 13:09.17
7 Galen Rupp United States 13:45.04 12:58.90 13:09.50
8 Juan Luis Barrios Mexico 13:45.30 13:09.81 13:13.54
9 Hayle Ibrahimov Azerbaijan 13:45.37 13:11.34 13:09.17
10 Lopez Lomong United States 13:48.19 13:07.95 13:11.63
11 Hagos Gebrhiwet Ethiopia 13:49.59 12:47.53 12:47.53
12 Yenew Alamirew Ethiopia 13:49.68 12:48.77 12:48.77
13 Mumin Gala Djibouti 13:50.26 13:17.17 12:21.21
14 Cameron Levins Canada 13:51.87 13:15.19 13:18.29
15 Moses Ndiema Kipsiro Uganda 13:52.25 12:50.72 13:00.68
Based on their PRs they would finish:
Oly Place name Country
2 Dejen Gebremeskel Ethiopia
11 Hagos Gebrhiwet Ethiopia
5 Isiah Kiplangat Koech Kenya
12 Yenew Alamirew Ethiopia
3 Thomas Pkemei Longosiwa Kenya
15 Moses Ndiema Kipsiro Uganda
1 Mo Farah Great Britain
4 Bernard Lagat United States
7 Galen Rupp United States
10 Lopez Lomong United States
6 Abdalaati Iguider Morocco
8 Juan Luis Barrios Mexico
9 Hayle Ibrahimov Azerbaijan
14 Cameron Levins Canada
13 Mumin Gala Djibouti
Based on their 2012 fitness they would place:
Place name Country
2 Dejen Gebremeskel Ethiopia
11 Hagos Gebrhiwet Ethiopia
5 Isiah Kiplangat Koech Kenya
12 Yenew Alamirew Ethiopia
3 Thomas Pkemei Longosiwa Kenya
1 Mo Farah Great Britain
4 Bernard Lagat United States
15 Moses Ndiema Kipsiro Uganda
6 Abdalaati Iguider Morocco
9 Hayle Ibrahimov Azerbaijan
7 Galen Rupp United States
10 Lopez Lomong United States
8 Juan Luis Barrios Mexico
14 Cameron Levins Canada
13 Mumin Gala Djibouti
Most of the fastest runners set their PRs in Paris that year.
The real question is - what place would Farah have gotten if he ran in Paris?