This has been said before but St John's only returns their no 1, 4 and 5 and 6 runners (Feichtinger, Burr, Bulger, Kuzara) They lost a few to quitting (LeClaire, Zimny and Hanson) but besides Feichtinger and Bulger the rest of their squad has been underwhelming. You'd think they'd be able to pull a few guys out of the woodwork with a massive men's team but so far that hasn't happened but they do bring in one decent freshman who was all state in the A Minnesota state meet for xc. No matter what way you look at this St John's loses more than they bring in so that's why I don't have them being a top 5 team this year.
St Thomas on the other hand loses their no 3, 5, 6 and 7 runners so losing more but guys but less scorers than St John's. Gerheatz and Baumann ran well last season but I have to agree I was thinking that they'd be faster this last track season. Trevor Smith has raced pretty well during the track season but who is after Smith? Trapp hasn't exactly been healthy for xc but there's also Long and Berkowitz who scored in the steeple this last year but only Long raced xc this last year. A lot could weigh in on what they are bringing in for this year besides a handful of all state 800m runners. I have them being a top five team for sure but it depends on their depth and if they can keep those top two guys healthy.
Hamline loses their no 1 and 3 runners and after their no 3 there was a considerable drop off but their no 4-6 runners always finished within 15 seconds of each other. Rock is the top returner and he ran alright in track this last year but nothing eye popping. Their next returners were Logan, Magnuson, Konzcal (no 4-6) and Stimson (no 7). Those guys did about what was expected from them in track. If the no 4-7 runners could make a big step forward then they could have a decent squad or if they get some freshmen to contribute. I have them being in the top five or just outside of it easily swinging either way.