Over/under on Symmonds' 3k?

And for the record, mcmillian calculator converts his 1500 PR to 7:39, but I still say 8:18.

I see no reason why a strength based 800m runner like N S doesn't have a future in the 1500. Seems to me like his time is now.

He better move on to the 1500, because the Sir Shaq train is going to run him over in the 800 this summer.

hitmonlee wrote:

I see no reason why a strength based 800m runner like N S doesn't have a future in the 1500. Seems to me like his time is now.

He'll go sub 8. This is a 1:42.95/3:34 guy who does weekly 25 minute 5M tempos in the offseason. But I'm not going to predict anything insane like low 7:40s. I'd guess more like 7:55-58 first time out.

SweatingWithNick wrote:

Be honest, do you think he will make another USA team? And let's say somehow he does, you think he will make a final? His best days are long gone. Which is why he is trying to stay relevant by (kinda) writing books, creating run gum, running in beer miles, and fighting with USAT&F. He just looks desperate to me.

And which sub-elite 800m runner might you be?

He's ran 3:34 for 1500m twice

Accounting for injuries/higher distance/winter season, he's still at least in shape for a 7:55

vegasned wrote:

I put it at 8:00.00. Seems like most people here will bet the over. So be it.

Under.

"weekly 25 minute 5M tempos in the offseason."

-weekly? Cmon, man. I've read his training journal. I live in Eugene. He's not doing that weekly. This place is like the telephone game on steroids.

8:13.45

Symmonds obviously has huge amounts of talent. But he wont run that fast at this meet:

1. He's an 800m runner

2. He doesn't care as much about indoors/never runs well indoors

3. His strength does not translate great from 800 to 1500. 3k will probably just be worse.

4. He is not training for a 3k. He is using it as a strength builder to help him bump up to the 1500m.

5. He's going to go out very conservative. He does it in 800's and will be even more inclined to do it in a longer, less familiar race

Its tough to guess, but I will put him at 8:20

I'm saying this without having seen him do anything this year, but I 100% think he will be on the US team in 2015 (I'll wait to decide on 2016 after 2015 is over). He's a World silver medalist! Sure he did it when Rudisha and Amos weren't there, but then even if you want to say he was 4th in the world in 2013 that's still extremely good. Yeah, he got hurt in 2014 and took it easy because it was an off year. Usain Bolt did the same thing. You think Bolt won't make it to the final at Worlds?

Will Symmonds make the final in Beijing? That can be a crap shoot even if he's in the best shape of his life. It's very deep and only 8 are in the final. Rudisha, Amos and Aman are the only three guys I would say are guaranteed a spot in that final. I'll wait until May to start throwing out predictions, but if I wouldn't bet against Symmonds fighting for a top 5 spot at Worlds.

Rather than over/under, it seems we have the haters (slow) and the disillusioned (using his 1500m conversion). I propose inside/outside. Will he be inside the range of 8:05-8:15 or outside.

This is a guy who has run 3:40 or better for 1500...If he slows down to a 4:00 1500 pace, that's 8:00. He's probably not in peak shape, and he's definitely not approaching this race as more than a rust-buster, but I'd say 8:10 is very realistic...and maybe faster. I'll be conservative though and say he runs 8:14.

8:16

Check out the heat sheets over at UW's track site.

He's in the 2nd-to-fastest heat, not the fastest heat with teammate Garret Heath and other top collegians who will be dragged along to 7:50 or under.

The winner of NS's heat *may* hit 8-flat so Nick should have the opportunity to run with the lead pack and not overextend himself early on.

Presuming he's healthy and "February fit," I would be looking for around 8:05 and would be surprised if NS broke 8-flat or ran any slower than 8:10.

If everyone else in the heat is over 8:00, then that definitely decreases the odds of a sub 8 for Symmonds, but I would still think that he'd drop a quick last quarter to win by a lot and go sub 8.

Way outside the 8:05-8:15 range....cuz he's a sub-8:00 dude all day long.

Sub 7:50. Won't be too impressive until the final 800(1:54).

He's too big. blocky and short legged for any distance over a mile. After 2000 meters of 61 400 meter pace he will feel it. If he doesn't totally fall apart and runs hard the whole race he will run around 8:15-18. Only if he guts it out at the last 800 to try to beat whoever would be dead last if he dropped out.