I am about to make a very bold prediction. Diego Estrada, in the next 2 years, will run a 2:05 marathon.

That is indeed a bold prediction. Here's to hoping you are right (but I doubt it).

Recognizer of Boldness wrote:

That is indeed a bold prediction. Here's to hoping you are right (but I doubt it).

Thanks Recognizer of brilliance, ...I meant boldness. Let me ask you a question. Of these runners, who do you think has the best chance of running a 2:05 in the next three years:

Ryan Hall

Dathan Ritz

Meb

Diego Estrada

Aaron Braun

Chris Solinsky

You don't know anything about his body and the type of training he can put it through.

fred wrote:

You don't know anything about his body and the type of training he can put it through.

Which is why he is calling it a BOLD PREDICTION.

fred wrote:

You don't know anything about his body and the type of training he can put it through.

I am sure in high school there were some predicting great success eventually for Ryan Hall in the marathon, YET they didn't know anything abou this body and type of training he can put it through. But they turned out to be prophetic.

His body will not take 100/120 mile weeks.

He's doing 50-60 miles a week fairly quick.

Polly P wrote:

fred wrote:

You don't know anything about his body and the type of training he can put it through.

I am sure in high school there were some predicting great success eventually for Ryan Hall in the marathon, YET they didn't know anything abou this body and type of training he can put it through. But they turned out to be prophetic.

Hall ran the miles. Do some background. Look at what people are doing.

fred wrote:

His body will not take 100/120 mile weeks.

He's doing 50-60 miles a week fairly quick.

Has he had a history of injuries? What makes you say his body won't hold up to the mileage?

Deliahh wrote:

Recognizer of Boldness wrote:

That is indeed a bold prediction. Here's to hoping you are right (but I doubt it).

Thanks Recognizer of brilliance, ...I meant boldness. Let me ask you a question. Of these runners, who do you think has the best chance of running a 2:05 in the next three years:

Ryan Hall

Dathan Ritz

Meb

Diego Estrada

Aaron Braun

Chris Solinsky

Haha, that's a very silly way to make an argument.

Hey who of these has the best chance of running a sub 13 5k in the next 3 years?

Steve Prefontaine

Me

Frank Shorter

Hillary Clinton

Just because I'm the most likely doesn't make it likely at all.

Ridiculous post aside, I will give you that it is a bold prediction and will give you much props if it indeed happens.

Deliahh wrote:

Recognizer of Boldness wrote:

That is indeed a bold prediction. Here's to hoping you are right (but I doubt it).

Thanks Recognizer of brilliance, ...I meant boldness. Let me ask you a question. Of these runners, who do you think has the best chance of running a 2:05 in the next three years:

Ryan Hall

Dathan Ritz

Meb

Diego Estrada

Aaron Braun

Chris Solinsky

Of those guys: Hall. He's the only one who has showcased the required 1/2 speed AND endurance over 26.2. Ritz would be next most likely

Seriously though, we're looking for a guy with 13:00/27:15 type credentials. Solinsky falls into that category, but he is too big.

The American college and post-collegiate system just isn't setup for producing a lot of sub 2:10 guys. We need bigger (like 30-50 member) training groups for these guys if we are to get the 1 or 2 world beaters.

I don't ever see it getting to that point.

He says that he can't do the mileage.

Here's a training week from August:

https://twitter.com/estradadiego/status/500422971098284033

Deliahh wrote:

Recognizer of Boldness wrote:

That is indeed a bold prediction. Here's to hoping you are right (but I doubt it).

Thanks Recognizer of brilliance, ...I meant boldness. Let me ask you a question. Of these runners, who do you think has the best chance of running a 2:05 in the next three years:

Ryan Hall

Dathan Ritz

Meb

Diego Estrada

Aaron Braun

Chris Solinsky

Estrada - 4%

Hall - 1%

Ritz - 1%

Meb - 1%

Braun - 0%

Solinsky - 0%

fred wrote:

He says that he can't do the mileage.

Here's a training week from August:

https://twitter.com/estradadiego/status/500422971098284033

That is one week of his 20K training. I don't see anywhere in his Twitter account where he says he can't handle higher mileage. Did he say that in an interview elsewhere?

I posted the interview

That looked so easy- he ran sub 61 alone. I agree with you.

I think he and Rupp could be our top marathoners in the next couple of years.

A strong half marathon means nothing when it comes to the marathon. The best American example would be Todd Williams. Todd was aggressive and ran a similar half marathon. He never broke 2:11. Tell me what is bettèr with Diego?

Fox News:

'"Based on training, when we first started, our goal was to run 63:20," Estrada said. "I called my coach and said I was not going to train this hard to run 63, I wanted to run under 61. He said these were the paces I had to run, so I got up to a 10-mile tempo at a 4:35 pace."'

So how do you think he's going to make the transition to turbo fat burning marathoner, if he can't do the aerobic mileage?

Does NOT translate wrote:

(1) A strong half marathon means nothing when it comes to the marathon. The best American example would be Todd Williams. Todd was aggressive and ran a similar half marathon. He never broke 2:11. (2)Tell me what is bettèr with Diego?

(1) FALSE To claim that HM performance is uncorrelated to marathon performance is absurd.

(2) No need to tell you what is "better" with Diego. The dude made a prediction. He didn't claim certainty and doesn't need to offer any "proof" that it will come true. It's just a prediction. You don't think it will come true? Neither do I. But the OP doesn't need to justify it.