I see that in some cases you give too much credit to some of the guys with lower PR's, but in others, you give too little. I thought saying Ari Klau vs. Ostberg in a mile being tight is a huge stretch - Ostberg is untouchable in CT. Ari will have a breakout year in the 32, but overshadowed by Ostberg a bit. Alex Abraham will break 4:30 in the mile at least (maybe not yet in indoor... we'll see), but putting him as a dark horse is optimistic. He'll be in the race for 4th. Spencer Brown will have the luxury of jogging in the win in the 1k.
Some projections:
1000:
1) Spencer Brown
2) Tomasso
3) Stegman
1600:
1) Ostberg
2) Armstrong Noonan
3) Ari
3200:
1) Ostberg
2) Ari
3) Armstrong Noonan
Ordinarily, Ostberg would be too smart to run hard at Class L's. However, he could probably take all 4 records (1600, 3200 at each L and the Open) if he wanted since there's time between then and nats - who even cares about NE's anyway? So, maybe he'll go for all 4. The ones at L's should be jogging for him.