What the above results indicate is that by using current statistics it
would seem that the likelihood of being caught doping is somewhere
between 0.1 and 10% in a single test. To put this in perspective, the
most complete and considered official current statistics pertaining to
adverse analytical findings are provided by the World Anti-Doping
Agency [54]. These findings, per sport, range anywhere from 0 to about
18% [41]. This would seem to indicate that given the findings of this
research, the extent to which doping occurs is very high. Theoretically,
using these figures, if one were to assume that 100% of athletes dope,
because of the limited window of detection, low test sensitivity and
infrequent testing, it is likely to have result in 2.9% of adverse findings
only. To elaborate, according to the calculations, if W= 0.29 (48hours),
S = 0.4, D=1 and T=0.25, one obtains a 2.9% chance of doping detection
in a single test. Therefore if one was to then again refer to the statistics
available from WADA a sport with an adverse analytical finding of 2.9%
(such as is closely the case with darts) would seem to indicate that given
these conditions a vast majority of athletes in that sport were engaged
in doping. Assuming tests were completely random and every athlete
doped regularly, then the percentage of positive test findings (adverse
analytical findings) would be low, roughly corresponding to actual data
published by WADA.
This indicates two things. 1) That doping is far more widespread
than official figures would lead one to believe and 2) That the current
system of anti-doping testing is inadequate to eliminate doping. This
supposition is supported by a number of officials [55] in the sporting
arena, some athletes [56] and numerous others involved in sports
including academics [28,57]. It should be noted that scientific literature
does not always quote specific examples. For this reason they must
be searched for in websites and popular literature. This is why such
examples were used above. Illicit activities can hardly be researched
systematically and this is why formal scientific literature does not
provide relevant information. As outlined previously it can be said that
it appears as though anti-doping policies are in place more for reasons
of perceptions and deterrence through fear then for any effective and
efficient scientific merit. This lends further support for the assertions
by Hermann & Henneberg, [58] as to the relationship both perceptions
and image has to modern sports, their participants and anti-doping.