yesstiles wrote:
The Assuma twins of the late 1970's in Rialto, Ca were an exception. They were age-group phenoms as far back as elementary school, and ended up running sub-8:50 2 miles in high school, and sub-4 in the mile in college.
Swimming says... wrote:A look at the historic US NAG Swimming records indicates that there is a correlation between setting national records at a young age and national and international success later on.
Is there a database for NAG record progression for T&F that one could make similar comparisons?
But swimming is way different. Distance runners peak about 8 years later than swimmers.
I would not say they are the exception, a large number of young phenomns do go on to success at the next level. But being great at at age 10 is certainly not a predictor of 'greatness' at age 17 or 25. Even if this kid does not get a whole lot better, he will still make a contribution to some H.S. team. What happens a lot of times is a kid like this will end up running 4:20 in H.S. and people will say the kid burned out, yet 4:20 is a very respectable time, but noadays it does not make national news and people will think the kid dissapeared.
I and looking at my AAU track champs booklet from '06 and '07, and I see as litle kids, young pheonoms like Olivia Ekpone, Hannah Cunliffe, Kendall Baisden, Ajee Wilson, Robert Griffin and many more who went on to H.S. and some level of college success. One year I recall seeing Craig Lutz, Nicole Blood, Jordan Hasay, St Geme, Alex Kosinski, Sara Bowamn and Marie Lawrence being at the same youth XC meet. A lot the kids do go on to some level of success, but I think people remember the ones like Briana J, who set all sorts of age group record, but did have nearly the same success at the next level; however, she actually did have a successful H.S. career and ran for 4 year at a D1 school. People remember mostly the ones who got away and the ones who didn't have the same success as they did as a youngster.