trackcoach wrote:
A few months ago during early indoors I would say yes, but his last 2 indoor races and his recent outdoor performance I would say no. For a 10k, the temp, wind and pollen will make a big difference, if all of those things are in his favor, perhaps getting under 27 is possible, but it is looking more like 27 teens. Also, with out the right incentives (money), I am not sure this is going to be a fast race and I doubt Rupp will make it a fast race.
I think Rupp is a much stronger runner than in 2010. In 2010, and earlier in the season in 2010, he came out and ran 27:10 after leading from around 6K until 800 to go. He rigged up to 27:10 because people had been sitting on him and blew by with relatively fresh legs at that point. I believe that if he would have been sitting on someone in that race, or traded pace, or just not had anyone left to go around him he would have at least run 27:05 that day.
There is no way in 2010 he could have run 13:01 and 8:07 followed by 5 x mile, ending in 4:01. Just no way. He is a MUCH stronger and better runner now. That doesn't guarantee that he will blast out sub 27:00 on Friday, because who knows how this race will unfold and what the weather will end up being like.
But if conditions and race set up anything like cardinal in 2010 or PRE in 2011 for Farah, sub 27:00 is on the table at a minimum.
Also, how do we know there are not incentives in this race? I'd wager there are.