Anyone think that Rupp can run 13:19 twice this Friday?

Salah hissou did. Why not rupp?

There is no way he is in better shape than when he ran his AR. 26:55 at best.

Slightly better given his 3:50 mile: 26:32.

races wrote:

Salah hissou did. Why not rupp?

Salah >> Rupp, that is why.

Likely > 60 F at race time, with a 10 knot wind. Guessing that allergy concerns will prevent his racing, but if he does go he won't break 27:20.

Back to Back wrote:

Anyone think that Rupp can run 13:19 twice this Friday?

26:38!

If he every runs 26:38 it will won't be 13:19-13:19. Probably more like 13:22-13:16 with the last 1K making up a lot of time.

I say 13:27-13:20 this weekend if the wind dies.

Then I say the first fast 5K he gets in this summer..BOOM!

I predict that he breaks his AR by about two seconds. And finishes fourth.

Back to Back wrote:

Anyone think that Rupp can run 13:19 twice this Friday?

26:38!

nope wrote:

There is no way he is in better shape than when he ran his AR. 26:55 at best.

+1. I know it was hot at Oxy, but Rupp really didn't look great there and his 10000m AR is really good.

In this race, I'd call anything under 27:20 acceptable, under 27:10 good,* under 27 flat very good, under 26:50 great, under 26:40 best we'd ever be likely to see from him.

I hope Salazar decides to have Rupp take shots at the outdoor ARs at 3000m and 5000m this year because those are both events where I think Rupp's PRs aren't as good as they could be and the ARs are plausible for him. [I was going to say something about Rupp deciding, but I just don't think that's how it works.]

* It's worth recalling that the 27:10.74 Rupp ran to finish 2nd behind Solinsky's then AR is his fastest 10000m other than his subsequent 26:48.00 AR.

I think that there will be at least two high profile Euro 10k's this summer, where conditions and his shape will be favorable for an American record. I doubt it here, since he was not sharp for that 13:19, so of course he was running in hot weather.

I do not see this being a fast race "you first, no you first I insist, no my friend you go first' for the first 4000 for sure. The wrong person will surge and try to break it open but by 6200 he's swallowed up and the chase pack breaks for tea as everyone looks around and says "you first, no you first I insist, no my friend you go first" and them wham-o 4 Africans are 17-20 meters out with 1000 to go and they run it in. They wait till 300 to go to see who brought the best sprint to the party. 27:00 happens on the backstretch as they race in.

If Rupp has a good day, 27:10. If not he'll run 2720-2740 or drop out and blame the pollen or the pacing

It is most likely that noon will break 27:00. I predict 27:15. That is not a bad time, we just forget that because of the 26:48 race.

I think Karoki will try to go early. I predict a decent pace with a slowdown from 5000-7000. Then a hard surge by Karoki.

I didn't see that race. But Salazar claims Rupp has been focusing almost exclusively on strength work and lost that 5000M only because he hadn't done any recent speed training. At least that is his story and he is sticking to it. In other words, it sounds like Salazar has been preparing Rupp for a time trial race-type race like Friday's race appears to be. The way I see it, he is entering this race just like he did almost exactly 4 years ago when he ran the Payton Jordan. He ran 27:10 in that race. Now he has 4 years of injury free training built up. He appears to have a faster field. Running 22 seconds faster than in 2010 seems very realistic.

jjjjjjjjj wrote:

I think that there will be at least two high profile Euro 10k's this summer, where conditions and his shape will be favorable for an American record. I doubt it here, since he was not sharp for that 13:19, so of course he was running in hot weather.

I'd like to see it, but depends on conditions and pacing. A little early in the season too.

I'm just hoping he wears mask.

http://www.oregonlive.com/trackandfield/index.ssf/2011/06/what_in_the_world_is_galen_rup.html

ryan foreman wrote:

I predict that he breaks his AR by about two seconds. And finishes fourth.

Back to Back wrote:

Anyone think that Rupp can run 13:19 twice this Friday?

26:38!

I don't recall seeing any big boys wearing white socks registered. Would be hilarious though.

Answer wrote:

It is most likely that noon will break 27:00.

In that case, Rupp should try to follow Noon.

Based on his indoor fitness and if he did not have any set backs in training since then, he could run 26:47 Friday.

Maybe the Oxy 5000 was just a bad day.

It's usually nice to go into a big effort with a recent good race.

But maybe he had a good workout somewhere that gave him confidence.

well., wrote:

Answer wrote:

It is most likely that noon will break 27:00.

In that case, Rupp should try to follow Noon.

Noon is the best g*d damn runner on the planet.