How hard is a sub 3 marathon?

Go run a half, then times 2 +20 min should be a realistic goal for the first marathon. I assume you can break 80 for the half. The hardest part will be not going out too hard, as others said respect the distance.

I am a 1625 5k guy. 75:30 half, 2:42 marathoner. Once you get some marathon experience then times 2 plus 7 to 15 min should be your range

The first thing you need to do is invent a time machine. Then go back to March 28th, 2014 and follow the advice from letsrun. You will be under 3 hours in no time at all.

It was bumped for a status update. Pay attention. OP responded even. No problem.

but it's not like I'd just turn into a pumpkin at 20 miles

That actually IS what it's like.

I think you could break 3 pretty easily given your talent and credentials, but if you go out too fast -- like shooting for sub 2:40 without putting in the work -- you will bonk hard.

Hell, you could probably bonk your way to low 2:5x, but it will suck.

I ran 2:59:10 this past fall after having run 16:54 in a 5k a few weeks before. I did 1 20 miler but was otherwise just running pretty easy miles for less than 40/week.

impartial observer wrote:

CyndiLoper wrote:

If the proper training is done for a year, almost anyone can run sub3. Or so they say.

Totally disagree. Anyone can run under 20minutes. But not anyone can run under 3hours. No way. It takes years and years of training and ability to not get injured.

Anyone cannot run under 20 for 5k....a high percentage of those who try probably could though. And a sub3 M is way superior to a 20 min 5k. Probably less than 6% of runners who really try could break 3.

My 5K PR is only 18:25 and I ran a sub-3 on 50 mpw (topping out at 65-70). Sub-3 shouldn't be a problem as long as you get your long runs in.

Just get in a couple 20+ runs. I was a lousy 17 min 5k guy and ran 2:45 in my first marathon on 40-50 mpw. But I have a couple friends who were sub 15 guys and just tried jumping in a marathon to say they did it and neither broke 3 hrs.

subfive wrote:

impartial observer wrote:

Totally disagree. Anyone can run under 20minutes. But not anyone can run under 3hours. No way. It takes years and years of training and ability to not get injured.

Anyone cannot run under 20 for 5k....a high percentage of those who try probably could though. And a sub3 M is way superior to a 20 min 5k. Probably less than 6% of runners who really try could break 3.

If you randomly selected 100 people from the general population and gave each one a year to break 20 or face the death penalty, I'll bet less than 20% could do it. Maybe less than 10%. I guess that's different than the population of "those who try" (voluntarily) which may mostly consist of runners that have some indication that it's within the realm of possibility. The point is, breaking 20, or even running a single mile at that pace is out of the question for most people.

Prospective Marathoner wrote:

I ended up getting in shape for a ten-miler and doing that (55:50). One day I will run a marathon and post it on this exact thread!

Umm... where is the update? I need an update on this. I have not slept in over 3 years while waiting for your update. How did your sub 3 marathon go?

If you can really do a 16:30, then yes, you should be able to break three pretty easily, especially if you kick up the mileage to 60-80 miles per week. You have the speed, work on the distance.

It's not automatic though. I have a friend who can run 16:30 with his eyes closed, but he can't break three. He's tried several times, but he can't get the pacing, and bonks the end.

Haile just barely broke 3 hours his first marathon.

I was able to hit 1:50 for 13 with one (brief, stop to get water at my car--less than 60 sec.? as I had locked it and had to find my keys) and it was 90'F last week.

Tomorrow I'm going for 14 miles but will get up early and do it at 7 am instead of at 1030. No, these aren't fast times, but my goal is to just complete a marathon and see where my baseline is. I'd love to BQ but that may take years. I'll be at my first 50 miler once I get done tomorrow morning.