It would be suicide for Farah to run at WR pace in London

All you doubters are nuts. There are much younger east Africans who have won big marathons with much less of a pedigree than Mo. Salazar knows running...period.No has an excellent chance of winning this race. Blow up? No freaking way.

The world record pace--reading about it elsewhere--is surprising, and, although there be two guys in that field--the current WR holder and the course record holder--who could come close to a blazing fast time on the London course, I would think it a miracle for those two guys to even have a sub 2:04 clocking. In my mind, there is zero possibility for Farah, in his first time out--and, as the OP had put it, without any substantial time trialing at long distances--to break the world record on this course. So, the world record pace is quite troubling. Indeed, I think it would be a huge shock to the entire world if, after Haile drops out after 30k, the pace slows a bit and Farah still manages to reel in the leaders and steal the win on the home course somewhere between 2:05 and 2:06. I think the first option the OP mentions is, statistically speaking, the most likely. Trying to go with the world record pace--if the pacemakers manage that, faithfully, and any of the top runners go with it--Farah trying that seems, with all due respect, likely to be too much for him. As Geb says here:

Fans and Farah himself should not be disappointed if he nabs 5th through 3rd place. I think a 2:05-2:06 win by Farah would be miraculous, ecstatic and exciting for running fans.

hopefully UKAD is keeping tabs on MO while he's preparing for london

but i wouldn't bet on it

It is about the records wrote:

British Marathon Record: 2:07:13 by Steve Jones set in 1985 on an aided course (Chicago).

Chicago is an aided course?

I'm gonna feed the troll. Here are the marathon results I could find that were for Oregon Project athletes during their time at the Oregon Project. I've added Salazar's personal results because the initial request was not only completely arbitrary and meaningless, but was clearly trolling, so I don't feel any need to respond to its specific demands. You are an obvious troll, but I was interested in looking into it, so I did.

Dathan Ritzenhein: 2:07:47

Alberto Salazar: 2:08:13 (short course)

Alberto Salazar: 2:08:51

Alberto Salazar: 2:09:21

Alberto Salazar: 2:09:29

Alberto Salazar: 2:09:41

Dathan Ritzenhein: 2:09:45

Dathan Ritzenhein: 2:09:55

Alberto Salazar: 2:10:08

Dan Browne: 2:11:35

Alberto Salazar: 2:14:19

Josh Rohatinsky: 2:14:23

Chad Johnson: 2:15:03

Josh Rohatinsky: 2:15:22

Kara Goucher: 2:24:52

Kara Goucher: 2:25:53

Kara Goucher: 2:27:48

Kara Goucher: 2:32:25

Some pretty good results. The number of success stories requested is pretty good when you consider how many coaches in the United States have actually coached five elite marathoners total. To my knowledge (could certainly be wrong), fewer than five males have lined up to run marathons for the Oregon Project to date. From what I can tell there were other guys planning to move up to the marathon eventually who didn't get there, namely Adam Goucher, Mike Donnelly, Marc Davis, Dave Davis, Karl Keska, and Phillimon Hanneck. They ran very good 5k to half marathon times, several of them focusing on bringing their 10k times down before moving up, but they don't seem to have run any marathons. I imagine that's entirely Alberto's fault and has nothing to do with the athletes not continuing with the group, or with the sport, which can't possibly be blamed on the athletes themselves.

Here's a list of Jerry Schumacher's five male marathon success stories for comparison:

Matt Tegenkamp: 2:12:39

Tim Nelson: 2:14:09

Tim Nelson: 2:15:06

Simon Bairu: 2:19:52

Brent Vaughn: DNF

Brent Vaughn: DNF

Simon Bairu: DNF

Shalane Flanagan: 2:25:38

Shalane Flanagan: 2:25:51

Kara Goucher: 2:26:06

Kara Goucher: 2:26:07

Kara Goucher: 2:28:11

Shalane Flanagan: 2:28:40

playsfortheotherteam wrote:

Name 5 elite males he has coached that have failed to do well in the marathon.

Phillemon Hanneck a mid 27 minute 10k

Donnelly 28:06 10k

Dave Davis a world cross member several times

Chad Johnson world cross member and 13:30 5k

All 4 of the above guys could NOT break 2:20 under the "excellent" coaching of Alberto

Dan Browne 27:40--13:15 and a 2:27 in 2004 Olympics and followed it up with another 2:27 in New York just to prove it wasn't a fluke.

THERE IS MY 5, THE BALL IS BACK IN YOUR COURT. YOU ARE CURRENTLY AT 1.

Yeah, those guys are just BRIMMING with talent. BRIMMING.

DontFeedTheTroll wrote: Chicago is an aided course?

Yes... noted with an "a"

"a = aided road course according to IAAF rule 260.28"

Who?

Providence Proud wrote:

playsfortheotherteam wrote:

Name 5 elite males he has coached that have failed to do well in the marathon.

Phillemon Hanneck a mid 27 minute 10k

Donnelly 28:06 10k

Dave Davis a world cross member several times

Chad Johnson world cross member and 13:30 5k

All 4 of the above guys could NOT break 2:20 under the "excellent" coaching of Alberto

Dan Browne 27:40--13:15 and a 2:27 in 2004 Olympics and followed it up with another 2:27 in New York just to prove it wasn't a fluke.

THERE IS MY 5, THE BALL IS BACK IN YOUR COURT. YOU ARE CURRENTLY AT 1.

Have to agree. His half PR is Bupa in 60:10. I can't see him running 80 seconds slower than that for the first half in London, and then hanging on to do it again in the second half.

I will be surprised if he runs under 2:07:00 even with perfect pacing. If he goes out with the leaders in 62:00 or faster for the first half, I would expect him to bomb and either DNF or fade to 2:07-2:10. Of course this is very interesting having Farah run a marathon, but I really don't see him excelling at the event.

I think it would be suicide if Farah deliberately took his own life, whereas going off at World Record Pace might better be described as 'ambitious'.

Glad to help clear up the misunderstanding here - these words often get confused, I know.

You know who else is a great coach Michael Jordan with all those rings. Oh wait the athlete is NOT the coach?????

Alberto was not self coached you boob.

oh wait, he didn't coach Chad Johnson to a 2:15:03 either. That was the Hansons picking up the pieces. He was over 2:20 while with AlSal.

Mike Donnelly was a DNF and Phillemon Hanneck was a 2:20

3:28/12:53/26:46

Did we forget random 18 year old Ethiopians pop out 2:04s?

He's running what in iten? 150 a week?

He will go with the pace.

#YOBRO wrote:

3:28/12:53/26:46

Did we forget random 18 year old Ethiopians pop out 2:04s?

He's running what in iten? 150 a week?

He will go with the pace.

Did you not read what the OP said? That would be SUICIDE. Suicide, I tell you!

#YOBRO wrote:

3:28/12:53/26:46

Did we forget random 18 year old Ethiopians pop out 2:04s?

He's running what in iten? 150 a week?

He will go with the pace.

Let's see. he ran a 3:28 this past outdoor season but when did he last break 27:00 or 13:00? His only other recent time we can use is a 60:10 in the half. That's not very promising if you're using that as your indicator that he can stay with the lead pack. He's not yet broken 60 in the half. I'm not hating, I'm being realistic.

He will literally not survive the pace.

madness wrote:

#YOBRO wrote:

3:28/12:53/26:46

Did we forget random 18 year old Ethiopians pop out 2:04s?

He's running what in iten? 150 a week?

He will go with the pace.

Did you not read what the OP said? That would be SUICIDE. Suicide, I tell you!

going a bit far wrote:

I think it would be suicide if Farah deliberately took his own life, whereas going off at World Record Pace might better be described as 'ambitious'.

Glad to help clear up the misunderstanding here - these words often get confused, I know.

I think it would be suicide fi Farah deliberately went out at a pace much too fast for him (see definition 2).

su·i·cide/ˈsuəˌsaɪd/ Show Spelled [soo-uh-sahyd] Show IPA

noun

1. the intentional taking of one's own life.

2. destruction of one's own interests or prospects: Buying that house was financial suicide.

3. a person who intentionally takes his or her own life.

verb (used without object), su·i·cid·ed, su·i·cid·ing.

4. to commit suicide.

verb (used with object), su·i·cid·ed, su·i·cid·ing.

5. to kill (oneself).

Glad to help clear up the misunderstanding here - definitions often get confused, Iknow.