What percent of Letsrun forum users can ACTUALLY break 18 minutes for a 5k?

Sad sad sad wrote:

Lol sub 18:00? Come on, now. Is that even a challenge?

It is if you are 70 years old.

timex sinclair 5000 wrote:

posting completely random 5Ks from around the country from this year... 18 seems pretty elusive for most runners.

Not sure I would call most of those people "runners" - lifetime, I'd guess 60-70% of people here have run under 18. Now, maybe 20-30%? I haven't run a step in months and weigh about 190, but I might be able to gut it out if my life depended on it.

I can break 18:00 on the age and weight graded equivalency tables!

I would guess well over half. I think there are more high school and college aged guys on here than you'd expect, and nearly all of them will be sub 18 if they are posting on Letsrun

I think the 15-20% estimates are probably right. That's actually quite a high number, but probably in the ballpark.

Sub-18 is infrequent for females (granting that they are probably not more than 1/4 of LRC "forum users"). Sub-18 is very rare for the has-beens (part of *why* they're has-beens) who do a lot of the posting.

And there are those of us males who probably *never were* in shape to go sub-18 for a legit 5k, and certainly aren't now.

In any case, though I'm skinny I haven't been able to run a step for 40 years. I'd bet a minority, but a very substantial percentage, of LRC folks are similarly ex-runners.

Everyone (male and female) between the ages of 18-39.

Probably 75% of guys in the 40-49 age

Maybe 25% of guys in the 50-59 age

I haven't been close to 18 in over 25 years. I'm content with that and I don't think my HS athletes care either.

formerly present wrote:

In any case, though I'm skinny I haven't been able to run a step for 40 years.

Are you serious? You haven't been able to run since Nixon was president? You missed out on dolphin shorts. Goretex. Running tights. Compression socks. Etc.

I think any able-bodied male would be capable of breaking 18 mins, perhaps excluding the very obese. It's really not that hard.

Typical letsrun thread:

1) many posts by the same person or two under many different names (you can tell by all the random never seen before names popping up on the thread)

2) several people (including the 1 or 2 from #1 category) mocking the very concept of an 18 min 5k, stating that any "able bodied male" could do it with virtually no training, and that some of these posters could do it off zero training (sure). Basically people jumping at a chance to hate on others. (and all of these posters can bench 350 too)

3) men pretending to be women.

Anyway, let'srun par for the course.

now for a reality check:

I would bet a large sum of $ that if you took every person who posted at least twice to letsrun in the last month (let's make them at least semi-regular "users"), and lined them up in a 5k tomorrow, at least 90%, maybe 95%, would not break 18. Most of the people that post here are one of the following: washed-up in some way, shape or form, retired from running, like cross fit more than running, are old, are kids who are not that good, or are simply not that talented whatever their age, etc, etc. Then there are handful of elites and very good runners. But a very large majority can't break 18.

As an example: I know several former very talented 400/800/1000 middle distance guys who used to run at a very high level in HS, college, and even very outstanding for their age in their 30's and even when they turned 40. I will pick the most talented from the group as an example: HS: 49/1:54/ 4:26 mile; college: 48/1:51 , 30-32 y.o. comeback after years off: 1:53/ 3:59 1500m; age 40: 1:57/4:24 mile ; You get the picture, a very talented guy, who is more middle distance, but can run a damn good mile. Very good speed, but sometimes puts in decent mileage. Now, he is 44 and can still run near 2:00 for 800. He recently has been running 19:00 for the few 5k's he runs. No way in hell he breaks 18:00 jumping in a road race. I don't think he has broken 18 in years and years (and barely ever). The other middle distance guys in this group, all in their early 40's, can't break 18:00 for 5k either. These are all pretty talented guys, not that old, that work fairly hard.

You can be a good runner and not break 18 jumping in a road race. That's reality. And most people that post here not very good runners.

You're welcome.

Well put.

You welcome.

I ran 15s for a decade and age grade even better. But by letsrun standards that still sucks. You have to be 14:24 or better to be considered legit here.

As far as sub 18 I would say 40% if the race were held tomorrow assuming 16 to 39 age group and let's age grade the masters. Lifetime bests it would be 70 or 80%. The demographics and egos here are highly skewed.

If everyone would post a Yes or No. And then it would be sort of like a poll.

I'm a No.

I can not break 20. I was just starting to feel I was a worthless garbage until your post. I know that I don't deserve to post with all the remarkable letsrun athletes, but I will try to be unobtrusive and not interfer with the exhcanges made by the gifted ones. I am not worthy.

I fall into one of these categories. Kind of a has been but never really did anything spectacular to begin with. At best I was a competitive runner at the collegiate level for a few years.What could I run now? 19:30 with a small prayer involved and a few very sore days ahead.What is my best ever? 14:47Touches on the point that I still enjoy talking about running but despise the physical act of doing it myself. I really don't want to run because getting older and slowing down hurts the mindset but once in a while I still do. I no longer have that competitive drive that made me tick with regard to running. Some would say I grew out of it. I'd say I just shifted focus elsewhere. Income and material possessions are more rewarding for me now.

formerly present wrote:

I think the 15-20% estimates are probably right. That's actually quite a high number, but probably in the ballpark.

Sub-18 is infrequent for females (granting that they are probably not more than 1/4 of LRC "forum users"). Sub-18 is very rare for the has-beens (part of *why* they're has-beens) who do a lot of the posting.

And there are those of us males who probably *never were* in shape to go sub-18 for a legit 5k, and certainly aren't now.

In any case, though I'm skinny I haven't been able to run a step for 40 years. I'd bet a minority, but a very substantial percentage, of LRC folks are similarly ex-runners.

Are you kidding me? Nobody that slow would waste that much time about running. I would say 95%. The 5% being occasional newbie who posted here thinking its a jogging forum.

Can I have an allowance for my age, in which case the equivalent of my all-time PR @ 52 y.o.= sub 18 for a 25 year-old?

http://www.howardgrubb.co.uk/athletics/wmalookup06.html

for the record wrote:

Now, he is 44 and can still run near 2:00 for 800. He recently has been running 19:00 for the few 5k's he runs. No way in hell he breaks 18:00 jumping in a road race. I don't think he has broken 18 in years and years (and barely ever). The other middle distance guys in this group, all in their early 40's, can't break 18:00 for 5k either. These are all pretty talented guys, not that old, that work fairly hard.

That's where you gave yourself away. 2 flat is a MUCH better time than 18 minutes, especially for a man in his mid 40s.

i'm sarah baxter, (if you know who i am, i'm fron caliFornia)

my pr is 16:40

my advice is to have fun with it, that will lead to fast times