Hardloper wrote:
vo2 cycling wrote:Records didn't "start tumbling on the track" in or around 1992...
they sure did buddy...recheck your facts
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_record_progression_10000_metres_men1965-1991 32 second drop...that's 26 years
1993-1996 30 second drop...in 3 short years
Blatant cherry-picking of numbers.
From 1962 to 1965 A SINGLE MAN dropped the record by 29 seconds.
Meanwhile from your same era of 1993-1996 the marathon world record DID NOT CHANGE! Does EPO not work for the marathon?
You don't understand the history of the sport, nor do you understand how random variables work. Outliers in data are completely normal, and do not need external explanation. They will not follow a nice pattern where the world record gets broken exactly every 5 years by exactly 10 seconds. I hope you don't ever hope to become a stock trader.
Vo2 Cycling is absolutely right. There is no cherry picking going on here at all!
In EVERY Men's track event from 1500m to 10000m, the average amount of improvement in terms of time (not even percentage) was greater in a 7 year period between the beginning of 1992 to 1999, than it had been in a 25 year period from 1967 to 1992.
This cannot be 'merely' an anomaly when it is across the board in all endurance events.
There has not been great advances in terms of training techniques or physiological understanding of the body since 1992. There were much greater advances in training, shoes and tracks between 1967 and 1992, and subsequently the advances during this era should have been far greater than a 7 year period in the 90's. In fact, the rate of progression in the improvement of athletic world records should surely decline over time!? With the passing of time the margin of improving should get smaller in all events.
In athletics, cycling and speed skating this was not the case in the mid to late 90s.
Here are the comparisons between the advances made for each event within a 25 year period and a 7 year period: -
1500m: - 1967 - 1992 - dropped by 3.6sec
1992 - 1999 - dropped by 3.4sec
1 Mile: - 1967 - 1992 - dropped by 4.8 sec
1992 - 1999 - dropped by 3.2 sec
2000m: - 1967 - 1992 - dropped by 5.4 sec
1992 - 1999 - dropped by 6.0 sec
3000m: - 1967 - 1992 - dropped by 10.1 sec
1992 - 1999 - dropped by 8.8 sec
5000m: - 1967 - 1992 - dropped by 18.2 sec
1992 - 1999 - dropped by 19.0 sec
10000m: - 1967 - 1992 - dropped by 31.2 sec
1992 - 1999 - dropped by 45.5 sec.
That's an average improvement of 12.2 secs per event in the 25 years from 1967 to 1992.
But in the 7 years from 1992 to 1999, the average improvement per event was greater at 14.3 secs. I'm sure a % improvement would be far more accurate and interesting, but this method serves its purpose in highlighting that this progression is far from normal.
One also has to take into consideration that some of the improvements in the 25 year period of 1967 to 1992 would have been down to changes from cinder to synthetic tracks.
There will always be the occasional outlier, but the odds that they all popped up in a 7 year period in the 90's in 6 different events, are incredibly rare.
When one then considers that the period of "outliers" also just so happens to coincide with a period when EPO emerged and there was no test for it, only reinforces the fact that the trend in the progression of these events over the past 40 + years is far from natural.
Anyone who cannot see that this is an unnatural rate of progression is naive.