Down goes the Dow

Maserati wrote:

Also, in your 2nd paragraph, aren't you using the argument that "this time it is different"? Can't have it both ways, Igy. Wasn't it you who said in response to me that one can always come up with some sort of flim flam evidence that this time it is different, when in actuality history is just repeating itself?

Igy is notorious for citing history when it fits his narrative and ignoring it when it doesn't.

Maserati,

The phrase "this time is different" refers to believing economic principles have been repealed to unveil some higher fantasy stock market. In my second paragraph I was highlighting that the economic environment of mid-80s thru 2000 facilitated growth, whereas today it has hindered growth. Well I think many market participant are playing a dangerous game of musical chairs. There is no market structure that prevents everyone from heading out the door at the same time.

I will admit that the theater of rising greed is truly breathtaking.

Igy

Fair weather advisor wrote:

Maserati wrote:

Also, in your 2nd paragraph, aren't you using the argument that "this time it is different"? Can't have it both ways, Igy. Wasn't it you who said in response to me that one can always come up with some sort of flim flam evidence that this time it is different, when in actuality history is just repeating itself?

Igy is notorious for citing history when it fits his narrative and ignoring it when it doesn't.

Unlike you I was actually working in the industry at that time. I remember clearly the lack of earnings supporting technology, telecom and biotechnology stocks. At that time however, dividend paying stocks were relatively undervalued, and 10 Year Treasuries yielded 6%.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Fair weather adv

isor wrote:

Igy is notorious for citing history when it fits his narrative and ignoring it when it doesn't.

Unlike you I was actually working in the industry at that time. I remember clearly the lack of earnings supporting technology, telecom and biotechnology stocks. At that time however, dividend paying stocks were relatively undervalued, and 10 Year Treasuries yielded 6%.

Your ad hominem argument does nothing to disprove my point.

And you have nothing factual to add.

There's no need to add anything. My original statement stands on its own merits. Your ad hominem offers your tacit approval.

Big Dog Investments wrote:

I propose another DGTD prediction contest: PREDICT THE CORRECTION.

Here are the rules:

1) Give the exact date that the Dow will reach 10% below its high.

2) Your prediction must be made before the Dow has fallen 3% from its high.

Closest to the actual date wins with the winner receiving one genuine "attaboy" as prize.

Will it happen before the end of 2016? After the inauguration? Groundhog Day?

Let's hear what you think.

Another high for the Dow, so the data has been updated (again!).

The clock continues to run on Econ who needs a 10% correction by Feb 20 to avoid joining the club.

The prediction pool:

Igy: January 9, 2017 - ELIMINATED

Big: January 13, 2017 - ELIMINATED

Econ: Feb 8, 2017

agip: March 4, 2017

Maser: June 17, 2017

Mellon: December 31, 2018

Current data (as of 2/15/17):

Dow high...20,609.78

Prediction goal...18,548.80

Cut off number...19,991.48 (make your prediction before Dow reaches this)

SP500 now up 28% over last year

May 15th 2017

agip wrote:

SP500 now up 28% over last year

Meanwhile this Igy idiot continues to trumpet that the sky is falling. Is there irrational exuberance in this market? No doubt, but this idiot Igy continues to say that one day he will be correct. Yes, after having been wrong so much before that.

Well, he will be correct one day. We all know the market will crash. But saying that without giving a reasonable time frame is just fear mongering. He is the epitome of the boy who cried wolf.

WOLF...WOLF...WOLF.......

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

I actually hope you will be correct soon Igy. Why don't you all have a do over? When will the market peak? Igy, you go first.

Goldie Lockes wrote:

Well, he will be correct one day. We all know the market will crash. But saying that without giving a reasonable time frame is just fear mongering. He is the epitome of the boy who cried wolf.

Igy is on record as saying the crash will happen on April 1, 2017. You can't be more specific than that.

Yes, and the bottom 60% lower than today will occur on April 1, 2019.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Yes, and the bottom 60% lower than today will occur on April 1, 2019.

No offense intended. Are these April Fools jokes?

Nostradamus has given me guidance. Sister Carrie and her ouija board is as accurate as the divining rod. Plus my charts and Fibinocci patterns have been confirmed thru the McClellan oscillator.

You're moving up. Any of those is likely to be more accurate than John Hussman.

Big Dog Investments wrote:

I propose another DGTD prediction contest: PREDICT THE CORRECTION.

Here are the rules:

1) Give the exact date that the Dow will reach 10% below its high.

2) Your prediction must be made before the Dow has fallen 3% from its high.

Closest to the actual date wins with the winner receiving one genuine "attaboy" as prize.

Will it happen before the end of 2016? (Nope) After the inauguration? (Yup) Groundhog Day? (Nope)

Let's hear what you think.

Updated to include a new player and adjusted for anther record high.

The clock continues to run on Econ who needs a 10% correction by Feb 20 to avoid joining the loser's club.

The prediction pool:

Igy: January 9, 2017 - ELIMINATED

Big: January 13, 2017 - ELIMINATED

Econ: Feb 8, 2017

agip: March 4, 2017

Ghost of 29: May 15, 2017

Maser: June 17, 2017

Mellon: December 31, 2018

Current data (as of 2/15/17):

Dow high...20,639.05

Prediction goal...18,575.14

Cut off number...20,019.87 (make your prediction before Dow reaches this)