Down goes the Dow

Maserati,

I follow your logic and perhaps you have the correct view. On the other hand, my 20 year experience in finance, and additional decades of life experience says this is but an excuse for more excess. Although, who would have thought that global central bankers would have embarked on such nonsense? As for myself I will work a few more years just to see how it all plays out.

Igy

Big Dog Investments wrote:

I propose another DGTD prediction contest: PREDICT THE CORRECTION.

Here are the rules:

1) Give the exact date that the Dow will reach 10% below its high.

2) Your prediction must be made before the Dow has fallen 3% from its high.

Closest to the actual date wins with the winner receiving one genuine "attaboy" as prize.

Will it happen before the end of 2016? After the inauguration? Groundhog Day?

Let's hear what you think.

Our updated prediction pool:

Igy: January 9, 2017

Big: January 13, 2017

Econ: Feb 8, 2017

agip: March 4, 2017

Maser: June 17, 2017

Let me know if I missed anyone. It's not too late to join the fun. Step up and take a chance.

Current data (as of 1/7/17):

Dow high...19,999.63

Prediction goal...17,999.66

Cut off number...19,399.64 (make your prediction before Dow reaches this)

A new high and a new participant, I think.

There's not much time left for Igy, or me for that matter, but there's still time for other participants to join the fun. Let's hear what you've got.

Just an Idaho slacker....

OK.

Maserati, That is one way to put it. Another way to put it is that current market participants are tolerating greater risk because they have to if they want to make any money. Since the financial crisis, yields for any reasonably safe bonds have been in the very low single digits. Its like saying people in Syria are just choosing to accept a greater risk tolerance for crossing the Mediterranean in rafts and overcrowded old boats. You would be right, but its an overly positive way to put it.

Maserati wrote:

Hey Igy, think about what I was saying this way:

The current population of market participants has greater, and longer-term, risk tolerance than did previous populations.

Greater risk tolerance is evidenced in greater risk premiums that drive up prices,but the longer-term of that risk tolerance is evidenced in the longer term of elevated prices.

Combine that with market regulation, and you have a bubble that is so extended in time that it is no longer a bubble, but a new norm, that reflects the new investor population.

Obviously, you did not take my first prediction seriously, so I'll do a major lowball of my 1st prediction to make everybody happy and say December 31, 2018.

Hi guys, resting after a workout and, of course, checked the DGTD thread. What a loser.

Ryan your translation does not reflect what it is that I have been trying to say. As you frame it, risk is assumed as a necessary part of fulfilling a need or desire--in your examples, the need to protect life, or the desire to make money.

The need and/or desire to preserve wealth is equally valid and affects both the assumption and tolerance of risk, as well as the actual risk level--especially where global capital flow is concerned.

I am not being condescending when I suggest that you guys don't personally know many people with money, especially internationals. US markets increasingly reflect that population, and many of them think and act using references and standards different than those that most people commonly understand.

By the way you talk about it, same as you can tell if someone has been in the military, in prison, on the diamond league circuit, etc. Again I pass no judgment, I myself would still like to make some money and am not among the class about whom I speak. I do, however, have regular social and business contact with them, by an accident of history

Maserati wrote:

I am not being condescending when I suggest that you guys don't personally know many people with money, especially internationals. US markets increasingly reflect that population, and many of them think and act using references and standards different than those that most people commonly understand.

I'll actually accept the first part of your statement - that we don't know very many international people with money. At least I don't.

I'll reject the second part - that US markets increasingly reflect that population.

It's been a huge dumb money rally for 9 years. 9 years. The 'smart money' has been hiding in terrible hedge funds and no doubt expensive tax dodges overseas and whatnot. I don't even know.

But the markets...the markets have rewarded the dumbest 401k money - just thrown at the Sp500 index and US treasuries.

So I'm curious what you mean about the markets "reflecting" ultra rich moneyed people.

My view is many Americans live well beyond their means. Financed by debt, save very little, many will either work forever or will have a dramatic shift down in lifestyle in retirement. The ultra wealthy, here or abroad, have no corner on common sense, and have roughly the same percentage of people doing foolish things. I don't buy any of this revisionist thinking whether in regards to the markets or lifestyle.

Igy

Maserati and agip,

No running today. More snow equals more core/cross training, i.e., shoveling snow.

Igy

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Maserati and agip,

No running today. More snow equals more core/cross training, i.e., shoveling snow.

Igy

in all my life I've never had to shovel snow. I grew up in a warm place and now I live in an apartment building. I feel like I've missed out on an essential activity.

I had a down week to try to rest up for my indoor track season. Starting this week I have around 4 races over the next 5 weeks.

I'm not feeling rested tho...something weird going on with my legs. I've been running fast but always sore and a bit tired. Usually those things don't go together. I think it is because I have been doing my workouts faster than usualy - more at goal paces than realistic paces.

agip,

I am racing a similar schedule and I have also been ramping up the workout paces. In fact I ran hard enough yesterday that the lower legs need a day off. I plan on doing a tough one Wednesday with a mile race Saturday. Last week I did hit 33 miles in six days of running. Hopefully I can keep building for spring and summer.

Igy

Some people have the capacity to grow as they age.

Second helpings flap gut, not beer.

agip, will get back to you with detail later, but for now, know that you have missed out on one of life's great workouts, along with running up a mountain.

Shoveling people's driveways when I was a kid was my first source of really good income. I made much more on it than on my paper route, and MAN was it a good workout. I used to do it with a friend and we would challenge ourselves to see how fast we could get it done.

To this day I love shoveling snow, but I haven't had to do it yet this year. I also live in a condo, but keep a shovel in the trunk in case the car gets snowed/plowed in somewhere.

Maserati,

I got my fill of shoveling snow today, four hours. We have about a third of an acre with a driveway situated on the side of the house. So a decent amount to clear. As the day went on the snow turned to a rain/snow mix. Very heavy and sloppy.

As I write there are three skip loaders are scrapping the street. They are piling the snow on any clear areas. There is some flooding concern since our place is between a creek and the Boise River. I have invested in flood insurance even though not required.

Igy

Macho, macho man. Everyone wants to be a Macho Man....

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Macho, macho man. Everyone wants to be a Macho Man....

The Village People?