Happy Thanksgiving, DGTD fans.
Happy Thanksgiving, DGTD fans.
Likewise Happy Thanksgiving.
We had a few comments this week on paper wealth and net worth. I found these St. Louis Fed Charts a CFA had posted.
https://mobile.twitter.com/SZottarel/media/grid?idx=0
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
We had a few comments this week on paper wealth and net worth.
Who made those comments? Link?
Look at pages 777-779....
...of course the Troll will see nothing...
Here no evil....
.....speak no evil..
Except the Bear...
Except the Igy....
Got it. You and Econ. Thanks.
Wall Street stocks were poised to break out to new highs in a holiday-shortened session on Friday, with the retail sector in focus as Black Friday shopping kicked off.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 47 points, or 0.3%, to 19,101, while S&P 500 futures added 3.45 points, or 0.2%, to 2,204.25. Nasdaq-100 tacked on 5.75 points, or 0.1%, to 4,855.
Stock futures, often used as a gauge for how stocks will open, hinted that equities may have another run at new territory on Friday. Futures rose modestly on Thursday, with regular trading closed for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. On Wednesday, the Dow industrials closed at a fresh high of 19,083.18, while the S&P 500 index finished at a record 2,204.72. That marked the third-straight record close for those indexes.
With one session remaining, the S&P 500 and Dow industrials were up around 1% each for the week.
Wall Street will observe a shortened day of trading on Friday, closing at 1 p.m. Eastern Time, though most investors are expected to stay out of the action until Monday.
Shoppers to aid rally momentum: The extra momentum needed for blue-chip stocks to push higher may come from Black Friday, said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior market analyst at London Capital Group. Promotions around the Thanksgiving holiday make it one of the biggest shopping days of the year, she noted.
Online shopping on Thanksgiving Day itself delivered in $1.15 billion in sales, an increase of 13.6% over last year, according to Adobe Digital Insights. Of that revenue, $449 million came via a mobile devices -- 58.6% more than last year.
Ozkardeskaya said investors should expect higher volumes and more volatility on shares of retailers and e-commerce giants such as Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) , Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT).
Shares of Wal-Mart rose 1% in premarket trading, while Amazon was up 0.3%, and Alibaba up 0.8%.
"Nonetheless, traders should also be prepared [for] downside risks, given that Black Friday has already been broadly priced in," she said in a note to clients. Ozkardeskaya added that if a bump for retailers evaporates in buy-the-rumor-sell-the-fact action, that could bite into U.S. stocks later.
More records this morning! There's no post-Thanksgiving hangover for this market.
Econ 101 wrote:
Happy Thanksgiving, DGTD fans.
likewise - this is the energizer bunny of threads. Great to be a part of it for so many years.
3rd Quarter 2016 S&P 500 GAAP Earnings as of 11/23/2016
183 of 487 beat on GAAP earnings or 37.6%
265 of 484 beat on sales or 54.8%
LTM GAAP EPS at $89.33
LTM PE 24.68 based on 9/30/2016 close of 2,168.27
Highest LTM PE since 9/30/2009
Wall Street started the year with non-GAAP EPS projection of $125.56, marked down to current $109.13. Current 2017 forward non-GAAP EPS projected at $130.94 on 3/31/2016 the figure was $135.94.
Although earnings have improved this quarter, well off the original projections.
The market propels forward on algorithmic trading and the hopes that market multiples can continue to expand. As such in either case the market becomes more dangerous by the day.
Igy
Another record day extends the 3-week win streak. Even Chicken Little is having a hard time trying to cone up with any legitimate concerns.
Earnings Scorecard: As of today (with 98% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting earnings for Q3 2016), 72% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above the mean estimate and 54% of S&P 500 companies have reported sales above the mean estimate.
Earnie wrote:
Earnings Scorecard: As of today (with 98% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting earnings for Q3 2016),
72% of S&P 500 companies have reported Non- GAAP earnings above the mean estimate and 54% of S&P 500 companies have reported sales above the mean estimate.
37% of S&P 500 companies have reported GAAP earnings above the mean estimate
72% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above the mean estimate and 54% of S&P 500 companies have reported sales above the mean estimate.
Earnie wrote:[/b
72% of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings above the mean estimate.
.....all Non-GAAP numbers
GAAP numbers only 37% beat on EPS
Igy
I think all will agree that the numbers are terrific either way.
Earnie,
Not really, but whatever you think.
Igy
Yes, really.
A Different REALLY:On 11/4/2016 the Dow and S&P 500 were at the same index level as 12/31/2014. Yes, 2014 not 2015. Since then the market is up 5.8% and sitting at record highs. On the other hand since July 2016 the Ten Year Treasury has risen from 1.36% to 2.36%. These two opposing outcomes have been driven by the belief that the new administration will cut taxes and start a large infrastructure program. My view is that this is far too optimistic. Whereas the facts are that corporate earnings have been stagnant for 24 months. Corporate, government and individual debt has risen to record levels. GDP growth is stagnant, and many of these issues are replicated worldwide. My view is the performance of the stocks have been driven by large money moves that are rarely in investor’s interests. I believe that we are in the midst of one of the greatest stock market bubbles ever. That is not to say there is not risk in bonds. But the loss in value of bonds would be driven by a significant increase in interest rates which is also a negative for stocks. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve has $4.4 Trillion of bonds on their balance sheet and a significant rise in interest rates would be a negative for that portfolio. The Price/Earnings ratio of the stock market is 24 (the lower the number the better), the historical average is 15. The current level has only been surpassed during the Roaring 20s and the Technology Bubble.Igy
Earnie wrote:
Yes, really.
You are, of course, entitled too your view. The reality is that you are usually wrong. Do you really believe "it's different this time"?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
On 11/4/2016 the Dow and S&P 500 were at the same index level as 12/31/2014. Yes, 2014 not 2015. Since then the market is up 5.8% and sitting at record highs.
Up 5.8% in three weeks and record highs. Life is good!