Oh I totally agree with you on my prediction date. It is just a friendly bet with POTO. The bet is actually 13,000 DOW. Believe me I realize that making any such prediction is just a shot in the dark.
I do not underestimate investors willingness to believe that low interest rates and easy money can support the market. I just disagree that it makes a fundamental change in the economy that is lasting and when reversed can be done in a benign way. Central bank policies have led to dangerous mal-investment.
Before this market cycle is complete a low of 1,100 S&P is a reasonable level. The market has already shot to the upside so if earnings are falling it is reasonable to believe that the S&P falls below fair value of 1,384 ( $85.47 x 16 = 1,384).