"Understand that I have no argument with investors who have both the investment horizon and the risk-tolerance to maintain a passive investment strategy. While my impression is that the completion of this cycle may be quite similar to what passive investors had to accept during the 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 market declines, disciplined passive investors recognize the potential depth of those cyclical risks. But they also recognize the potential imperfections of any attempt to actively manage those risks, and decide to follow the passive route. For my part, I prefer following a value-conscious, historically-informed, risk-managed approach, and likewise, I have to accept the periodic risks of that approach (which in the recent half-cycle was mainly that - so long as market internals had not explicitly deteriorated - deranged monetary policy weakened the reliable historical tendency for extreme â€œovervalued, overbought, overbullishâ€ syndromes to produce abrupt losses)."
"Iâ€™d like to end with some personal thoughts. If youâ€™re an advocate of a passive buy-and-hold strategy, youâ€™re not my enemy, and neither should I be yours. We simply see the world differently. Itâ€™s strange to me how much intolerance has infected every aspect of our culture. As meanness and incivility become increasingly acceptable, I think itâ€™s best to push the other way. Incivility is like a broken window - when it becomes acceptable, you get more broken windows, and everything deteriorates. Iâ€™ve laid out our concerns and our evidence, and weâ€™re going to do what weâ€™re going to do. To my critics - disagree as you like, but be kind, lest you invite ridicule when the tables turn. Speculative half-cycles, after all, tend to be completed badly."