Down goes the Dow

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  • Ghost of Igloi
    registered
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 1:09pm CST
    re: coach d
    Forum Index
    coach d,

    We are still in the middle of winter here. Wife and I went night downhill skiing Saturday. There is more snow than we have had in years. When we lived in Southern California we really enjoyed this time of the year. Great for running most of the time.

    Good trade on your M. My wife went to Macy's in Boise yesterday and could not find the Rockport Wing Tips I favor. She felt the shoe selection had gone down. I offered her none of my views on your investment.

    In response to you natural gas post. Perhaps changes in export laws and gas liquidifcation is a factor.

    Igy
  • agip
    registered
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 1:29pm CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    Ghost of Igloi wrote:

    Spring is a way off....then there is summer.....

    Tonight the moon's looking young but I'm feelin' younger
    'Neath a veil of dreams sweet blessings rain
    Honey I can feel the first breeze of summer
    And in your love I'm born again
  • agip
    registered
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 1:31pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    so

    we opened, fell 226 Dow points

    then we climbed 317 Dow points

    and it's only 2:31 PM

    methinks the computers are f'in with us
  • Ghost of Igloi
    registered
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 1:37pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    agip,

    Good one....I'm speechless....

    Igy
  • Sally V
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 1:47pm CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    That's a first.
  • Coach D
    registered
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 2:04pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    agip wrote:

    so

    we opened, fell 226 Dow points

    then we climbed 317 Dow points

    and it's only 2:31 PM

    methinks the computers are f'in with us

    Oil. All Oil. Nothing but Oil. Period.

    I've read that in the last few years, my profession (engineering) has been cannibalized to work on Wall Street. I don't think they're paying those people to buy mutual funds. I think one of the things that's going on is arbitrage programs trading SP500 off changes or price levels in oil. Pretty simple to do and I think I'm going to experiment with this and backtest in Metastock, and if it works, maybe I'll set up my own arbitrage with TradeStation Securities.
  • agip
    registered
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 2:08pm CST
    re: coach d
    Forum Index
    coach d wrote:

    agip wrote:

    so

    we opened, fell 226 Dow points

    then we climbed 317 Dow points

    and it's only 2:31 PM

    methinks the computers are f'in with us

    Oil. All Oil. Nothing but Oil. Period.

    I've read that in the last few years, my profession (engineering) has been cannibalized to work on Wall Street. I don't think they're paying those people to buy mutual funds. I think one of the things that's going on is arbitrage programs trading SP500 off changes or price levels in oil. Pretty simple to do and I think I'm going to experiment with this and backtest in Metastock, and if it works, maybe I'll set up my own arbitrage with TradeStation Securities.


    I think you are generally right of course

    but today was strange - oil was up all day but the US stock market was still down big - 1%.

    So the oil/stock correlation broke down this morning.

    The catch today is that the dollar fell, so maybe it wasn't clear if oil was up because of a weak dollar or because of more fundamental issues.
  • agip
    registered
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 2:12pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    I'm just staring at the screen right now...fascinating action.

    Nice big tail on the candlestick chart - that usually means we'll get a few up days. If we close at these levels.
  • Ghost of Igloi
    registered
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 2:14pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    Market is weak, headed lower....
  • Ghost of Igloi
    registered
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 2:40pm CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    I find it interesting that people are looking for a reason for the market going down in anything but the fundamentals (valuations and earnings). It is not oil, Fed, China or any other excuse.

    Igy
  • agip
    registered
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 3:00pm CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    nice 420 point rally from bottom to top today

    that'll put the hurt on some momentum traders
  • Ghost of Igloi
    registered
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 3:04pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    Putting on more hurt:

    FB -1.68%
    AMZN -3.81%
    NFLX -0.82%
    GOOGL -4.04%

    Igy
  • Pointing Out the Obvious
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 6:49pm CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    C'mon, Igy. There's no hurt there. One day means nothing. Look at the big picture.
  • Ghost of Igloi
    registered
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 7:05pm CST
    re: Pointing Out the Obvious
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    POTO,

    Considering that the FANG stocks were a major influence on the positive return of the S&P 500 for 2015, the glaring underperformance in 2016 is significant. Furthermore, Amazon and Netflix are two of the most overvalued stocks in the index. Facebook and Google are two of the largest market capitalization stocks in the index. Tracking the performance of these four stocks will say much for the direction of this market, which in the end will be the hurt locker for long only stock investors.

    Igy
  • Ghost of Igloi
    registered
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 7:25pm CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    Paul Katz in reference to the FANG stocks: "You can get hurt."

    http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/03/is-this-the-end-for-fang.html

    Igy
  • Pointing Out the Obvious
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 7:30pm CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    There's a reason their valuations are high. I know you don't like it, but a lot of smart people think differently.
  • Ghost of Igloi
    registered
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 7:43pm CST
    re: Pointing Out the Obvious
    Forum Index
    POTO,

    OK, the operative phrase is "were smart" in 2015 but not not smart in 2016.
    These stocks represents herd mentality that usually proves to be a fatal investment flaw. I plan to go the other direction and we can compare notes at our deadline.

    Igy
  • Pointing Out the Obvious
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 7:50pm CST
    re: Ghost of Igloi
    Forum Index
    FB would have to be considered a good investment so far in 2016.
  • Ghost of Igloi
    registered
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 8:19pm CST
    re: Pointing Out the Obvious
    Forum Index
    POTO,

    In my younger years there was the rock group Meatloaf. The lyrics of their most recognized song, which I can't remember, had a line: "two outta three ain't bad." in this case it's "one outta four ain't bad."

    Seriously here, when a stock like FB trades at 80 times current earnings, it is unlikely that the earnings will grow into the price. We have already seen the compression of stock prices of GPRO, VRX, CMG, TSLA, AMZN, NFLX, ILMN, NOW, and SYSS to name a few. Stock prices compress to match a reasonable valuation multiple. P/E or Price/Earnings is the appropriate metric. So if the price of FB advances at a greater rate than the earnings any value is erased.

    None of the above is new. It is as old as Benjamin Graham and as current as Warren Buffett. One either believes stock valuations matter or one doesn't.

    A warning here, stock valuations matter little at a market top. Valuations are amazingly rediscovered at market bottoms.

    Best to you.

    Igy
  • Ghost of Igloi
    registered
    3 years ago 02/03/2016 8:23pm CST
    re: Pointing Out the Obvious
    Forum Index
    Meatloaf, Two Out of Three Ain't Bad:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two_Out_of_Three_Ain%27t_Bad

    Igy