agip,
True, Bill Gross' prediction has been wrong, but I actually believe his analysis is correct. What about all the predictions of rising S&P earnings and stock prices? That is a laundry list of people that have been wrong.
Igy
agip,
True, Bill Gross' prediction has been wrong, but I actually believe his analysis is correct. What about all the predictions of rising S&P earnings and stock prices? That is a laundry list of people that have been wrong.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
True, Bill Gross' prediction has been wrong, but I actually believe his analysis is correct. What about all the predictions of rising S&P earnings and stock prices? That is a laundry list of people that have been wrong.
Igy
yeah - predictions are not much use, yr right
agip,
Case in point, JPM Guide to the Markets, March 31, 2008:
(1) Stocks look cheap historically and relative to bonds.
(2) Large-cap stocks look particularly attractive on a valuation basis and remain well-poised to take advantage of global growth.
(3) Municipal and high-yield bonds have become attractively valued.
(4) Stronger economic growth overseas should aid international stocks.
Igy
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
Case in point, JPM Guide to the Markets, March 31, 2008:
(1) Stocks look cheap historically and relative to bonds.
(2) Large-cap stocks look particularly attractive on a valuation basis and remain well-poised to take advantage of global growth.
(3) Municipal and high-yield bonds have become attractively valued.
(4) Stronger economic growth overseas should aid international stocks.
Igy
touche
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip,
True, Bill Gross' prediction has been wrong, but I actually believe his analysis is correct. What about all the predictions of rising S&P earnings and stock prices? That is a laundry list of people that have been wrong.
Igy
You're in good company, Igy.
POTO,
Now, now, let's keep some perspective. 1) I said China was bubble overvalued, check; 2) I said high quality bonds were not in a bubble, check; 3) I said domestic market bubble overvalued, check. I have been right so far.
Igy
At some point "bad news" is not a reason for the market to rise. They Flipped The Switch to Off:
Ghost,
If you go back to 9/29, when I said there was significant accumulation going on--and the SP500 has gone up over 100 points since then--do you really want to say that it is only because of bad news? GE, Q2 GDP revision, consumer spending revision up don't matter?
Yes, the employment data was weaker than expected (still +144K) meaning the FED is not hiking any time soon, and that IS a positive for everybody (including China and EM) except bank deposit holders (if there is such a thing any more).
I bought FB and UA a week ago with about half the profits from being short commodities, and wonder if anyone else has been doing any buying. Also, there is a chart gap on the S&P at 2035, and that is also where the longer end of EMAs that have crossed is going to come in, which may be a good place to take profits/cut losses.
Something else, which is the "official" business cycle list from NBER:
http://www.nber.org/cycles.html
This one is clearly on borrowed time...but that doesn't mean it's quite over yet.
coach d,
You have good points. Of course you may be correct, but I think what you are seeing is institutions covering shorts when the S&P did not break below 1872 Friday. They are now into buy programs trying to ride a wave. For many of these managers career risk is on the line. Look at how many hedge funds are underperforming their benchmarka. Many of the managers riding biotech ate a meal a bit too large. We will see how this progresses, but I think their is enough damage to say it ain't over.
Igy
Wolf Richter's article summarizes what may be going on in the economy:
http://wolfstreet.com/2015/10/05/last-two-times-this-happened-us-fell-into-recession/
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
POTO,
Now, now, let's keep some perspective. 1) I said China was bubble overvalued, check; 2) I said high quality bonds were not in a bubble, check; 3) I said domestic market bubble overvalued, check. I have been right so far.
Igy
I see that as 1-for-3; not a bad baseball batting average, but more than a little shaky in the investment world. Hey, even a blind squirrel occasionally finds an acorn. Meanwhile, you conveniently ignore your other misses. No surprise there given your history - or lack thereof - of admitting your mistakes.
POTO,
One out of three, how so? I certainly do not want to convert you or anyone else to my views, and for the haters see the attached:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2YHHIOocxs
Igy
agip wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:agip,
Case in point, JPM Guide to the Markets, March 31, 2008:
(1) Stocks look cheap historically and relative to bonds.
(2) Large-cap stocks look particularly attractive on a valuation basis and remain well-poised to take advantage of global growth.
(3) Municipal and high-yield bonds have become attractively valued.
(4) Stronger economic growth overseas should aid international stocks.
Igy
touche
$10,000 invested in VFINX on 3/31/2008; now $17,649. VBMFX now $13,581. VFITX now $13,345. VB now $20,452!!!
If one placed $1,000 a month in VFINX, starting 3/2008, IRR would be over 11%. For young investors semivariance is your friend, retirees your enemy.
la gente está muy loca wrote:
agip wrote:touche
$10,000 invested in VFINX on 3/31/2008; now $17,649. VBMFX now $13,581. VFITX now $13,345. VB now $20,452!!!
If one placed $1,000 a month in VFINX, starting 3/2008, IRR would be over 11%. For young investors semivariance is your friend, retirees your enemy.
gente, I'm a big fan of yours, but come on...
sure, while what you are pointing out is literally true - markets have gone to new highs...the problem is that not much money is int the hands of young investors - most money is in the hands of older folks, and when teh market falls 50% the lives of those old folks is damaged. Semivariance is the enemy of anyone over 65 and the mortal enemy of those living on income from portfolios.
but yeah, if you bought right before the crash after reading the guide to the markets, you'd be making solid money by 2015
Just read in barrons that this is the first year since 1990 that cash has beaten both stocks *and* bonds.
portfolio theory isn't working that well this year. One is supposed to make money when the other doesn't.
although the vanguard balanced index, 60/40 stocks/bonds is down just 0.9% this year so no disaster.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
POTO,
One out of three, how so? I certainly do not want to convert you or anyone else to my views, and for the haters see the attached:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2YHHIOocxsIgy
"haters"??? Are you in 6th grade?
Igy check out page 7 of the new guide to the markets - it shows how that decline in sp500 earnings is due to energy - and as soon as we start lapping the crash in energy prices...sp500 earnings are expected to rebound.
point is that making the 'sp500 earnings are falling so I am bearish' argument is short term and could go away pretty soon.
agip,
What about China? Evidently it caused a stomach ache in YUM and blemishes in NUS.
Igy