Down goes the Dow

What was your performance for 2022 calendar year?

INCORRECT! I haven't told you if I'm figuring in dividends or not...mostly because it bothers you.

Greetings everyone, what did I miss? :^)

It's really me, for some reason the Maserati account isn't working, and I have no motivation to figure out why.

I hope everyone's doing well! I plan on being around for a while again, so it will take me a bit to get up to speed on things.

What a year--and I have participated in very little of it! I am overwhelmingly in very short term bills, getting my 5.3x% nominal. Individual bills, sgov, and frsxx. I have been moving $ out of Treasury and into brokerage for liquidity. I did buy a small amount of 2-year notes, which have gone down a bit since I bought.

I still have some US equities, but not enough to make a huge difference. I sold a lot recently, after a decent run-up, mostly in late Dec and Jan. I am left with nothing other than BTI, PM, and RSGUF (pink sheet).

At this point, I am going to sit back and wait for some sort of drawdown, maybe the whole "sell in May and go away" cycle, and then check out what's available.

I hope all the regulars are still active! How are your 5k times? :^). Agip did you get your Giulia yet? Retired have you been traveling? Igy are you still in remission and with Hussman? Flagpole are you still intolerable? lolololol what a bunch we are!

I almost forgot, my vaulted gold has actually finally done something! I actually have pretty much forgotten about it. I wish I had more. A few months ago I did make a pretty big purchase, but it was halted because it was the first time I had used that outlet, and they weren't comfortable with that size of a first-time transaction. But of course they accepted the money transfer, and took more than a month to give me my money back, after I had to produce documentation that it was too late for my bank to reverse the transfer. Good grief! Next time I will stick to the oldies but goodies, instead of looking around for a deal.

I wish I'd had more time to be active, I would actually have bought more Au and bitcoin, but there you go. Who knows, maybe I will have an opportunity to buy a dip in the future. I would not have bought the Nasdaq or ARKK or NVDA, etc. I was thinking about MSFT, though.

The only real trade I executed was MSTR, on which I made more than 6% in one day, and then sold quickly and never looked back. Decent size, but again I wish I had done more. As for bitcoin itself, I have a total of around $163, as of the last time I looked which was maybe a year and a half ago. Maybe a couple of hundred bucks by now. Interesting that it has breached ATH and traded around that level, it almost makes me want to buy some on that "box theory" of trading.

My stepson will be graduating from Michigan next month with a graduate degree in statistics. Your 20% a year average for last 5 years is about par for the course. The S & P has averaged about 14.53% while the NASDAQ has done much better. So your average return might be a bit lower than the typical return.

mas, welcome back! I’d assumed you’ve been lurking, just not participating. We have been traveling more than I ought to admit, which is exactly what we planned. Just touched down back home after nearly six weeks a long way from home. May travel to my family “homeland” (where my dads ancestors arrived from) with a couple of siblings at the end of the month, not sure yet though. We’ve seen a ton of former classmates in the last year or two, and will join a group of them to watch the eclipse on Monday, weather (cloud cover) permitting. We are both out of the work force, almost certainly for the long haul, so if you ever feel like reaching out somehow to admit who you really are, feel free. 🙂I feel sure that some of our long standing or recently renewed friendships would overlap.

Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2024 (with 20 S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 18 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 9 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.

“ Igy are you still in remission and with Hussman?”

Maserati,

Good to hear from you. I found you to be one of the most interesting posters.

I sold most of my Hussman HSGFX in early 2023 at a nice profit +10-20%; I maintain a 2.5% position that I am flat on. My largest positions are EM bond CEFs EMD up 26%, and FAX up 19%. I maintain smaller yet significant positions in leveraged shorts TECS up 2%, and SOXS up 10%. I have been in and out of the shorts, at an equivalent loss overall. Overall flat on the year, but willing to bet things get worse.

Last month the chemotherapy oncologist pronounced me “cured” and discharged me. The radiation oncologist is tagged teamed for August with a CT scan, and I anticipate a further downgrade to concerns. My labs are excellent across the board. On the exercise front not in racing shape, but pretty fit. I swim two sessions a week at 2,000 yards each, one session of 60:00 spin bike, 45:00 exercises and free weights, 3 days of walking and running, and one day off.

Current projects include restoring and framing copper etchings from the 17th and 18th century. They were inherited from my wife’s family, likely brought to this country by her famous wood engraver great grandfather Gustav Kruell (see below). Next month I travel to Gente Country for a reunion of one of my cross country teams. Other than that, nothing much has changed.

Best to you,

Igy

Reported for false information.

If by "intolerable" you mean smarter than everyone here and right about everything, then yes.

In all seriousness, welcome back.

^12/13/2022

20%/year is hugely different from 14%/year. Also, most actively managed funds underperform the market. Not sure what you thought your point was.

So you sold your HSGFX in early 2022, then again in early 2023. Which, of course, means you must have bought more between those two times.

I’m sorry, but it is HIGHLY unlikely that you turned around that purchase in that time for a 10-20% as you claim.

Reported.

not to speak for sally, but I believe his point is that your 20% avg. return for the last five years, while surpassing that of the S&P 500, is on par with that of the Nasdaq index. In fact, it is identical, with that index returning just under 21% avg. per year in that 50-yr. duration.

Not too shabby, imo, so congrats on that.

I got lost in lots of that accounting, but what stood out to me was his statement: "Overall flat on the year, but willing to bet things get worse".

Flat on a first quarter as compared to:

SNP 500: +8%

Nasdaq: +9%

No comment.

Anyone who said that:

1) is not investing properly, and

2) is a permabear.

I look forward to hearing about your business venture.