Down goes the Dow

the answer is that yes, predictably you are beating the SP and Dow because of your tech-heavy portfolio. A stock portfolio that wasn't overweight tech would be up much less than 12.25%.

Flagpole I'm not your enemy here. I'm just explaining why your portfolio acts the way it does. Over and over it shows that it is tech heavy. Which is fine. That has been the correct way to invest for years and years. Except for 2022.

Be proud. It's been the right decision. But you are without doubt overweight tech.

This poster said a particular reading we hit in March of the 'heavy truck index' was a sure sign that stocks were about to turn down.

No.

SP500 up 6% since then.

This economy is wild - economists have been predicting recession for many quarters and it never happens. I think post-pandemic the data have been bad...just so many 'this never happened before' items.

Game of Trades
@GameofTrades_
A major warning signal has flashed for the markets
Everytime this indicator collapses, equities fall rapidly

March 28, 2023

A year ago Elon Musk was super worried about the economy. Wrong-o, rich man.

SAN FRANCISCO, June 3 2022 (Reuters) - Tesla (TSLA.O) CEO Elon Musk has a "super bad feeling" about the economy and needs to cut about 10% of salaried staff at the electric carmaker, he said in emails seen by Reuters.
A message sent to executives on Thursday laid out his concerns and told them to "pause all hiring worldwide." The dire outlook came two days after the billionaire told staff to return to the workplace or leave and adds to a growing chorus of warnings from business leaders about the risks of recession.

Heavy truck pessimism, Musk wrong, and this heavily read guy (a massive 842,000 views of this tweet!) was wrong about the shutdown.

This is why reading financial news results in worse performance than buying and holding with ignorance.

Paulo Macro
@PauloMacro
The probability of a Federal shutdown is high if a temporary limit extension can’t be reached. Put simply, this is *not* one of those “overhyped” debt dramas like 2011. In fact, nobody cares (they should). No, these don’t happen every year. I have been vocal - here is why.
1/

I don't own individual stocks...just mutual funds...TONS of mutual funds.

Nope! You're wrong...as I already stated, I could be equally Dividend and tech and be right on 12% like I am this year.

You are not correct. Also, pride isn't something I have about anything...it's a wasted emotion.

If you are not tech-heavy there is no way you could have beaten the Dow or S & P for many years, let alone 32 of 33. The NASDAQ 100 is heavily high-tech-heavy and it has pummeled both the Dow and the S & P since 2009. And when I say "pummel" I mean clobbered. I was looking at a couple of graphs yesterday comparing the NASDAQ 100 versus the S & P and the NASDAQ 100 was up like 100% more than the S & P over that time period. How can you beat the markets without being tech-heavy. Sure, the tech companies have certain bad yeas but their good years are incredible. If your portfolio is more conservative, you would have gotten clobbered in many years since 2000.

You "owe TONS of mutual funds" and are a big Vanguard guy but you previously said you only own 2 Vanguard funds. Why are you so secretive about which funds you own? I have a number of brokerage funds and would be more than happy to disclose every fund I own. But your holdings are more privately guarded than the gold at Fort Knox. Why the secrecy?

If "pride" is an emotion you care nothing about, why do you continually talk about being the smartest person here, having huge biceps and having beat the market 32 of 33 years? That seems like someone who is might proud of those things.

I think there's some semantic issue here. Tech is 25% of the US market.

If you were 50% tech and 50% dividends, you would be massively overweight tech.

I've never seen someone so dedicated to proving he is not a good investor. You did it man. You were overweight tech when you should have been overweight tech. You won. Arms up, chest puffed out, cheer. Do the YMCA dance!

Big Tech stocks have driven 86% of the S&P 500’s performance so far this year, according to the note, citing seven stocks including Apple Inc. AAPL, 0.26%, Microsoft Corp. MSFT, 0.71%, Google parent Alphabet Inc. GOOGL, 1.07%. , Amazon.com Inc. AMZN, 2.00%, Nvidia Corp. NVDA, 0.07%, Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc. META, 0.25% and Tesla Inc. TSLA, 4.43%. Most of these companies will report their first-quarter earnings this week and next.

If you look under the hoods of many mutual funds today, you are likely to find a good bit of tech in it. Esp. funds in the Growth category. People might have more of a tech. exposure than they would have otherwise suspected.

Also, as for announcing earnings, that would be well into next month for the 2nd quarter earnings, since they already announced 1st quarter earnings.

Methinks you are incapable of learning (though yes I am aware you are trying to troll me a bit here because you think it makes me mad...it doesn't). TODAY and for at least the last 10 years I have not been heavily in any one sector. Prior to that, I was not as diversified as I am today, and in some of those years I was more heavily in one sector over another, AND I tipped the scales in my favor several times as I put in a lot mid year when the market was down a lot. I've mentioned that to you before...AND, I have lost to the Dow now 2 times since 1989, not just once...both times I have lost were by a lot too...and no Agip, that doesn't mean I am tech heavy today or last year either.

Anyway Sally, I am very aware of your intellectual limitations, and I realize it's a bit silly of me to respond to you ever, but today I just felt like it, knowing full well that you can't absorb anything I said and that you will remain an a$$hole no matter what I say.

and there is sometimes difficulty defining a tech stock. Amazon? Apple? Tesla? They could be tech and they might not be, to some.

This caught my attention. I've been biased towards Tech heavy. But after the tech bubble burst in 2000, I used the correction to load up on small caps, with the premise that small caps often lead the way out of the big downturns. My instincts were right, and i started to shed that weighting more in favor of total tech. around 2014.

So, I did some checking, and to my surprise, you might want to check out how well the Russell 2000 small cap index has done since 2000 through the present. It has smoked even the Nasdaq and even the Nasdaq 100 over that period (2000 to present).

But yes, since 2014, the tech/Nasdaq 100 is the winner.

Anyway, I just mention that in the context that if FP had a small cap bias over most of these years, he may have enjoyed outsized gains - it's not just tech.

I'll just say as clearly as I can: Everything you have said over the years about your performance, and the pattern of your performance, proves that you have a good more than 25% of your stock portfolio in tech stocks. Or a least growth stocks. The only thing that would get me to think otherwise is some kind of list of your portfolio.

I think you probably would be surprised if you plugged your portfolio in the Morningstar Xray program that shows what you own. I'd be happy to do it for you if you wish.

Yes, I was surprised to see Tesla in particular described as "debatably a tech company."

More likely to grant that status to Amazon with cloud computing component of theirs. Apple earns admittance perhaps with 'internet of things' categorization (learned that term just this week and apparently their is an ETF for that).

Nah...just not true.

Also, I have never claimed to be a good investor...quite the opposite. The only thing I do better than the vast majority of other people is that I DO invest without fail as much as the law allows me into retirement accounts and then now also in non-retirement mutual funds (though I'm not actively putting money into the non-retirement funds now that I have retired...but I'm not taking money out of it either) and as a result, I don't make any mistakes with trying to time the market.

Finally, I don't take pride in things...pride is a sin, and while I'm not religious, I do recognize the good parts of Christianity, and being prideful is bad...and silly. If I WERE to falter as a human being and be prideful about something, it certainly wouldn't be that I had a good investment year seeing how I just buy multiple mutual funds with very little thought into them other than they are to make me as diversified as possible. I have no great plan or knowledge or insight that has made me successful as an investor, so nothing to be proud about.

I got out of debt other than the house decades ago. I have invested heavily without fail. I paid the house off early. That's it.