Down goes the Dow

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Seattle,

OK, I’ll bite since you are one of the good guys. The trolling to my handle here and on the Masters thread has become so weird I am no longer posting on a regular basis. I am one of the longest posters on LRC with the same handle, going all the way back to May 9, 2006. Back then the trolling was in fun, and not the viciousness of recent years. If one wanted to motivate me to be more personally productive, the trolls were good for that, and for that thank you. I haven’t exercised this much in years, so that is good.

Now to my positioning and view since I last posted in early April. Fortunately in mid to late April I sold my NVDA single stock short ETF up 26% and Tesla single stock short ETF up 6%. I moved proceeds to SPXS, SOXS, and TECS, trading around them and selling some HSGFX up to add to position. I was about flat at Wednesday market close, and sold throughout the day. Today, I sold the SPXS position, still up slightly, with proceeds largely split between TECS and SOXS. I will go a little further leveraged short to ~20%.

AI will likely take years to be a transformative investment. Meanwhile CEOs have taken the unconscionable position of hyping their stock’s AI prospects in earnings calls. To the point where investors are counting the times AI is mentioned. The same hysterical mania we saw in meme stocks, crypto, cloud, FANG, ESG, ARKK, etc. Keep in mind NVDA had revenue down 13% from a year ago. These CEOs and other insiders make most of their wealth from stock based compensation. Unfortunately through buybacks and insiders selling back into the market. An incestuous relationship.

A debt ceiling resolution will likely take some froth out of tech and rotate to value, or under performers. Even if all the above is misguided, a recession will likely hit the highest valuation stocks the hardest. That is my view. If that view proves wrong I will reduce leveraged short positions down to 5-10% with proceeds split half to HSGFX and 6-12 month CDs.

Good luck to you and the other normal posters. I will go back into hiding lest the loons return.

Igy

Sent from my six year old iPad

Sally Vix wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Seattle,

OK, I’ll bite since you are one of the good guys. The trolling to my handle here and on the Masters thread has become so weird I am no longer posting on a regular basis. I am one of the longest posters on LRC with the same handle, going all the way back to May 9, 2006. Back then the trolling was in fun, and not the viciousness of recent years. If one wanted to motivate me to be more personally productive, the trolls were good for that, and for that thank you. I haven’t exercised this much in years, so that is good.

Now to my positioning and view since I last posted in early April. Fortunately in mid to late April I sold my NVDA single stock short ETF up 26% and Tesla single stock short ETF up 6%. I moved proceeds to SPXS, SOXS, and TECS, trading around them and selling some HSGFX up to add to position. I was about flat at Wednesday market close, and sold throughout the day. Today, I sold the SPXS position, still up slightly, with proceeds largely split between TECS and SOXS. I will go a little further leveraged short to ~20%.

AI will likely take years to be a transformative investment. Meanwhile CEOs have taken the unconscionable position of hyping their stock’s AI prospects in earnings calls. To the point where investors are counting the times AI is mentioned. The same hysterical mania we saw in meme stocks, crypto, cloud, FANG, ESG, ARKK, etc. Keep in mind NVDA had revenue down 13% from a year ago. These CEOs and other insiders make most of their wealth from stock based compensation. Unfortunately through buybacks and insiders selling back into the market. An incestuous relationship.

A debt ceiling resolution will likely take some froth out of tech and rotate to value, or under performers. Even if all the above is misguided, a recession will likely hit the highest valuation stocks the hardest. That is my view. If that view proves wrong I will reduce leveraged short positions down to 5-10% with proceeds split half to HSGFX and 6-12 month CDs.

Good luck to you and the other normal posters. I will go back into hiding lest the loons return.

Igy

Sent from my six year old iPad

Igy - Am happy to hear you are doing well. Good to hear from you. Am curious how you made money on shorting TSLA and NDVA selling in April when they have going like gangbusters.