Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2023 (with 95% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 78% of S&P 500 companies has reported a positive EPS surprise and 76% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Market up almost 5% since this short-term bullish call in March 2023:
Henrik Zeberg @HenrikZeberg Stay Bearish all you like! #Nasdaq may retest Bull Flag trendline - but then I expect it to explode higher. There is NOTHING Bearish about this chart. Enjoy Blow-Off Top!
Stay Bearish all you like!#Nasdaq may retest Bull Flag trendline - but then I expect it to explode higher.
But a bad bearish call from this guy. Said the market would drop 13%....it did drop, but just 3%, which is noise, and then rallied 9%.
2/21/23
Reformed Trder @Reformed_Trader $SPY all 3 of my closely followed indicators have given off sell signals. The last 3 times they've all triggered together it has had led to more downside with the last time in December having the smallest follow through. I believe this next downleg will be more similar to the the 13%+ drawdowns as beginning of the year flows helped offset more downside.
$SPY all 3 of my closely followed indicators have given off sell signals. The last 3 times they've all triggered together it has had led to more downside with the last time in December having the smallest follow through.
Inflation may be cooling. Depends on measurement, but PCE says we're at just 2.74%, which is enough to stop the Fed. But it's confusing as CPI is far higher: 5.1%. I think the difference is in how housing is measured. Should be a sweet Social Security hike though - if actual inflation is 2-3% but SS gives 5%.
Corp profits are coming in above expectations and 2023 numbers are being raised
We have a new thesis: AI will change everything and inspire a new spending and investment cycle. That will get people interested and bring money to the market.
We just need to stop pointing this gun at our face in DC first.
Seven of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through May 22, 2023. Nikkei 225 finished in the top spot with a YTD gain of 19.13%. France's CAC 40 dropped to second with a YTD gain of 15.51% while Germany's DAXK finished in third with a YTD gain of 12.96%.
Talked to young couple today who were planning to leave their apartment and move in with the man's parents who were fixing up the basement to make it livable.
Given the increase in the cost of raw materials, the plan got kisboshed.
Inflation still running rampant on things that matter most in our lives.
remember back when the consensus view was that recession was 'sure-fire'? Never happened and now the economy is apparently accelerating.
127k views of this tweet from January 2023 saying recession is coming.
Odd thing is the leading economic indicators...they've been negative for a long long time but the economy doesn't care - it keeps chugging along. More post-pandemic weirdness.
David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie Fascinating how on the same day that the index of leading economic indicators slid 1.0% in December (consensus was -0.7%), making it ten down months in a row which is a sure-fire recession harbinger, that the "soft landing" narrative has gained the upper hand. #RosenbergResearch 1:23 PM · Jan 23, 2023 · 126.9K Views
Nvidia announces earnings. Must be something good - up over 17% after hours.
holy mother of Pre. That one is probably heavily shorted too, so it could go and go and go.
what a great market leader NVDA is. Will help optimists believe AI is truly going to be a long-term corporate spending boost.
Up 25% now. Good lord that's a lot of value created instantly.
Yeah, isn't that the truth.
In researching this space, I've come across another couple that ride the same AI wave.
One is CS.ai inc. (AI) and I was lucky enough to buy a little of that a couple of days ago. Another is UPST (no position). The analysts also say Alphabet (google) and Microsoft are the 1000 pound gorillas in that sector, though Nvidia is right up there amongst them. Lastly, Synopsis is another more broadbased play as I've mentioned a few weeks ago. And they even mention Facebook (Meta) as benefitting in this area.
As I see Apple flatlining recently, I have to wonder if some investors are doing a tech intra-sector rotation into the AI plays and taking profits on the prime mover in the tech sector, Apple. Just a hunch, though.
holy mother of Pre. That one is probably heavily shorted too, so it could go and go and go.
what a great market leader NVDA is. Will help optimists believe AI is truly going to be a long-term corporate spending boost.
Up 25% now. Good lord that's a lot of value created instantly.
Yeah, isn't that the truth.
In researching this space, I've come across another couple that ride the same AI wave.
One is CS.ai inc. (AI) and I was lucky enough to buy a little of that a couple of days ago. Another is UPST (no position). The analysts also say Alphabet (google) and Microsoft are the 1000 pound gorillas in that sector, though Nvidia is right up there amongst them. Lastly, Synopsis is another more broadbased play as I've mentioned a few weeks ago. And they even mention Facebook (Meta) as benefitting in this area.
As I see Apple flatlining recently, I have to wonder if some investors are doing a tech intra-sector rotation into the AI plays and taking profits on the prime mover in the tech sector, Apple. Just a hunch, though.
yeah that giant sucking sound is dollars being sold out of everything and flooding toward AI stocks.
Question as always is whether to be a contrarian or not. To say 'don't go with the crowd' or to say 'ride the wave.'
The stock market will humble you over and over. Last year I felt pretty smart…I did very well in relative terms, with my short term bonds and value stocks.
this year is absolute carnage for me I’m relative terms. Everything wrong. I’m in the black but underperformed massively. when tech skyrockets like this normal rules of investing get tossed out…they don’t work. Jut buy big tech and ride the wave.
The split between value and growth is absolutely nuts.
260 basis points today split between growth and value.
Value stocks getting crushed - down 90 bps.
every frigging dollar is going into US tech. And there are a lot of dollars out there.
insanity.
I know i know i know.
I always chuckle when they keep dragging up that trope 'irrational exuberance' in reference to tech crazes and how it went so badly back in 2000 with the internet bubble, but..... this time it really feels like it!
G-Damn it, where is Igy? I need someone to talk me out of this delusional thinking. Just when we need him...