Ghost of Igloi wrote:
coach d,
I opined a few days ago if we were to move higher it would be by the high multiple stocks. As Jeffrey Gundlach says I "have an aversion to things that don't make money. " I am a deep value guy, a different philosophy than your momentum trading style. We will see if we are able to break significantly above that 2131 range. Good luck.
I'm not much of a momentum guy. I'm a Peter Lynch growth guy. There's a concept in futures trading called Megatrading, which says "the big money is made in the big moves," and there is also a book by that title, which is the exact opposite in style of what most people think futures/commodity trading is about . That's really what I am. I try to buy quality companies with sustained "growth at a reasonable price" and stick with them for a long time. Yes, I have AAPL and NFLX. But I bought most of that on 6/22/2009. Yahoo Finance says that the NFLX and AAPL I bought back then are up 1809% and 573% as of today. As Peter Lynch wrote somewhere in One Up On Wall Street, "all you really need are a couple of really good stocks." Of the six stocks listed many pages above that I still have, AAPL, ROST, and LAMR were listed as "Warren Buffet Stocks" by the Buffett screeners at the time I bought them. I do not plan on selling any time soon.
I do not disagree with you at all that there is a massive bubble top coming and the buy and holders are going to eat it (again). What I disagree with you about are:
(1) The timing of said top;
(2) Your ability to predict the timing of said top;
(3) The opportunity cost of all the money you don't make by selling too soon.
That said, I went through my stock screens today, and I still see some value or growth and a reasonable price plays that are out there. You just have to look harder for them, and unless you are using quantitative analysis, you probably won't find them:
RAD
NNA
LHO
IXYS
GHC
DRH
The average PEG of these stocks is less than 1.0, even now. Rite-Aid is weird because it is selling at a very high multiple of book value (this is a turnaround case, so the future eps projections are probably way off). You can still find growth at a discount, but as I already said, you have to look harder for it.