Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Perhaps I am old and out of touch at soon to be 65. However, like you I am a CFP, also have CLU and ChFC. I have a BS in Business Administration and a Master in American Studies. Right out of college I worked for two years under the VP for marketing for a Fortune 500 firm. I was a college head track coach at a Division I school for nineteen years and nineteen years in this business with a major wirehouse. So I think I have quite a bit of education in and outside of my current career. As a coach I gained a lot of experience with human nature. It leads me to believe that I am correct, and investors are being lead off a cliff. As I said in the past, I would never advise anyone to get completely out of stocks or bonds, but I think people should temper their expectations on financial asset returns. I feel my role is as a backstop, for better or worse, I am the guy who has to give BOTH sides of the argument not just what comes from conventional Wall Street sources. If you take your oathe as a CFP seriously you understand my point. I believe it is foolish to think QE Unlimited by numerous world central banks will not end in tears. THIS QE IS AN EXPERIMENT THAT HAS NEVER BEEN DONE BEFORE. Adequate price discovery is not my theory, it is the universal law of economics. Why do you think central banks PBC, ECB and the Fed are actings like their underwear is stuck in their crack? It seems uncomprehensible to me that so many people are blind to this. I have a brain and I plan to use it. Even when it comes to running, I see things we did 40 years ago are back in vogue today. As they say, history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. And yes I did have the pleasure to train under Mihaly Igloi, whom I learned much about discipline. So in summary, I find it typical behavior for people to claim this is a new era. I find it ridiculous that Netflix is bought up 11% today and trades at 185 times earnings. I think there will be Hell to pay. I have nothing to gain in these exchanges other than to offer an opinion.
very cool history - working with Igloi and coaching for so many years.
I can't really disagree with anything you said.
It is indeed frightening that the fed thinks the US economy can't handle a short term interest rate of say 1%. I don't know what to make of that.
I suppose I'm feeling frustrated and looking for collegiality more than anything else - I feel I've done everything by the book but value isn't working, dividend strategies aren't working, bonds aren't safe anymore...it's expensive growth stocks that are working. So my clients are lagging a bit and it's the old thing - stay with classic strategies or jump in to what's working now.