la gente esta muy loca wrote:
https://i.imgflip.com/5ej5yx.jpgGhost of Igloi wrote:
I guess you haven’t heard, markets only go up. Thus this thread is dead. Even the Troll knows that.
Good one!
la gente esta muy loca wrote:
https://i.imgflip.com/5ej5yx.jpgGhost of Igloi wrote:
I guess you haven’t heard, markets only go up. Thus this thread is dead. Even the Troll knows that.
Good one!
😹
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I guess you haven’t heard, markets only go up. Thus this thread is dead. Even the Troll knows that.
So, you're no fun. Ok. Got it.
If it makes you feel better your ahead of me. That said, my house appreciation rivals a meme stock.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
If it makes you feel better your ahead of me. That said, my house appreciation rivals a meme stock.
+1
Our two houses are killing it, I must be a genius!
Mind you, I’m sitting on a ton of dry powder so our investment accounts are only up about 6%, I must be an idiot!
Oh, wait, ummm, yeah... 😀
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
If it makes you feel better your ahead of me. That said, my house appreciation rivals a meme stock.
No wonder. It's the paint job. :)
Earnings Scorecard: For Q2 2021 (with 13 S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 11 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 12 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise.
1 month
PTON +22
ARKK +15
TSLA +11
Clean energy +11
Energy +8
Retail +7
Tech +6
Small Caps +5
REITS +5
Van momo +5
Cons Disc +4
USA +3
Emerging +3
China +3
Comms +3
60/40 +2
SP500 +2
Weed +2
healthcare +2
Non US devlpd +1
Corp bonds +1
Junk +1
Financials 0
GME 0
TIPS 0
Treas 0
Value 0
Hussman 0
Industrials -1
Utils -1
Staples -2
Materials -5
Gold -6
BTC -15
VXX -23
Well the winner is ARKK! meme stonks are back.
tech has been strong lately, and value has returned to lagging.
Hussman still ahead of 60/40 but by less and less.
The inflation trade is sagging...gold and tips and materials not leading
YTD selected
Energy +49
Value +17
Small Caps +17
SP500 +15
BTC +12
Non US developed +12
Tech +11
Emerging +10
Hussman +10
60/40 +7
China +3
ARKK +1
TIPS +1
Clean Energy -5
tech still lagging year to date, value still leading.
US leading in general.
thanks, Agip. I find these reports really useful.
seattle prattle wrote:
thanks, Agip. I find these reports really useful.
Spasibo.
I generally do them to force myself to stay in touch with what markets are doing, but I'm glad you get something out of them too.
If you can see any larger trend, let's hear it.
I just get the sense that tech was on a tear for year, then value, small caps, and US did some catching up this year, and now things are starting to even out again., Seems like if something lags, just wait for a good entry point because it comes back.
I guess, more importantly, any sell-offs aren't sustained.
seattle prattle wrote:
If you can see any larger trend, let's hear it.
I just get the sense that tech was on a tear for year, then value, small caps, and US did some catching up this year, and now things are starting to even out again., Seems like if something lags, just wait for a good entry point because it comes back.
I guess, more importantly, any sell-offs aren't sustained.
I suppose I'd point at several discrete trades that dominate the market for some time then morph into another.
1) Inflation/boom trade - buy gold, TIPS, REITS, small caps, value, industrials
2) 2020 all over again - buy tech and ARKK
3) Slowdown coming - buy tech, buy bonds
4) Value trade: Somehow bet on the 12 year reign of tech to come to a close and it's time for the pendulum to swing toward value for some years.
but yeah selloffs just aren't a thing anymore. That's not healthy. If people aren't afraid the markets will get distorted.
all time highs sp500 and nasdaq
agip wrote:
all time highs sp500 and nasdaq
Usually you have crazy gyrations but the last 6 months or so been so smooth. A day or two of crazy stuff but then a rebound. Nothing crazy like 2 months of bad performance.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
Everyone's in. That;s the point.
Since i've already been delegated to the sheeple, i guess i might as well raise my hand.
Good. It will be fun. Either way it will be historic. Historic if it continues because it will be a first in financial history. And that is a long time. Historic if it breaks, because it was obviously unsustainable.
Here's a bet from 7/1/2020
page 2094 if you want to go read the posts.
Igy proposed a bet that AMZN would fall to $1500/share and underperform the SP500, Dow and Hussman. he asked me to put it in my calendar.
Here's where we ended up
SP500 +44.6%
Dow +39.4%
Amazon +27.9%
Hussman +8.9%
Amazon never traded much lower than the start of the bet ($2890) and is now just shy of its all time high, at $3426
So Igy was right that Amazon would underperform the US market, but he was wrong that it would go down and that it would underperform Hussman.
I had no dog in the fight - I don't predict prices of individual stocks unless I am feeling daring and foolish.
Not surprising result in my view. The bubble will continue to expand as long as investors believe that the Fed controls markets.
All eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains through June 28, 2021. The top performer is France's CAC 40 with a gain of 18.3%, our own S&P 500 is in second is with a gain of 14.2% and Germany's DAXK is in third with a gain of 10.9%. Coming in last is China's Shanghai with a gain of 3.8%.
agip wrote:
YTD selected
Energy +49
Value +17
Small Caps +17
SP500 +15
BTC +12
Non US developed +12
Tech +11
Emerging +10
Hussman +10
60/40 +7
China +3
ARKK +1
TIPS +1
Clean Energy -5
tech still lagging year to date, value still leading.
US leading in general.
agip, we're halfway through the year for our bet and these are the current narratives:
USA - we're doing so well that people actually want the Fed to raise interest rates because we may be doing too well; developed not one, but three vaccines. That's how awesome we are right now.
China - not doing great and most businesses are being taken over even more by the state; produced a single vaccine with, what was it again, a 10% efficacy rate? lol