Down goes the Dow

All time highs

SP500

and

DJIA

Earnings Scorecard: For Q1 2021 (with 88% of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 86% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 76% of S&P 500 companies have reported a positive revenue surprise. If 86% is the final percentage, it will mark the highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive EPS surprise since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.

You said it!

And for the record, it doesn't need to be said in an efficient capitalist system except to those being fed the narrative that others would spin for their political advantage.

Friday, May 7, 2021 - 9:45am

WASHINGTON, D.C. - The following statement can be attributed to U.S. Chamber of Commerce Executive Vice President and Chief Policy Officer Neil Bradley.

“The disappointing jobs report makes it clear that paying people not to work is dampening what should be a stronger jobs market. We need a comprehensive approach to dealing with our workforce issues and the very real threat unfilled positions poses to our economic recovery from the pandemic. One step policymakers should take now is ending the $300 weekly supplemental unemployment benefit. Based on the Chamber’s analysis, the $300 benefit results in approximately one in four recipients taking home more in unemployment than they earned working.”

agip wrote:

All time highs

SP500

and

DJIA

And Dogecoin!

seattle prattle wrote:

Racket, PhD wrote:

You know what capitalism is all about? It's about finding a way to fvcking win no matter what.

If your business sh!ts the bed because you can't pay slave labor wages anymore than your business deserves to get blown out. That's capitalistic efficiency at work and it's what makes the world go around.

Pay your workers more, and if you can't then gtfo and quit drinking at the well.

You said it!

And for the record, it doesn't need to be said in an efficient capitalist system except to those being fed the narrative that others would spin for their political advantage.

That is a joke really. In an efficient capitalist system you wouldn’t have the Fed distorting markets. There would be no Dogecoin, or a Bezos who pads his pockets while treating his employees like crap. Once the Government pays people not to work what do you expect? A very broken country is what you’ve got. Masked by asset distortion for the wealthy. But we don’t want to talk about that.

Just two more years, market, come on ...

What happens in two years?

The shortage of skilled labor predates the pandemic. It wasn't borne of the pandemic relief checks. And maybe a lot of workers are sitting this out because they don't want to risk getting infected or getting exposed and infecting those they live with.

Not sure about what the rest of what you are saying has to do with it, crypto and Amazon, et. al.

Literally 6 minutes later...

You can’t make this stuff up, folks.

seattle prattle wrote:

The shortage of skilled labor predates the pandemic. It wasn't borne of the pandemic relief checks. And maybe a lot of workers are sitting this out because they don't want to risk getting infected or getting exposed and infecting those they live with.

Not sure about what the rest of what you are saying has to do with it, crypto and Amazon, et. al.

Both you and Racket spoke of capitalist efficiency. My retort was that is a joke with the Fed distorting markets. Crypto and wealth inequality are the result. If one can’t see that, I have nothing to add.

seattle prattle wrote:

The shortage of skilled labor predates the pandemic. It wasn't borne of the pandemic relief checks. And maybe a lot of workers are sitting this out because they don't want to risk getting infected or getting exposed and infecting those they live with.

Not sure about what the rest of what you are saying has to do with it, crypto and Amazon, et. al.

First, we're talking about a report that's going to have a number of revisions. Also check out the 90% confidence levels.

Labor force participation rates comparing older workers ( 55 and older and more vulnerable to Covid 19 ) to younger workers ( 25-54 ) appears to validate workers sitting out because of Covid risk.

Another factor, with children in many parts of the country not in class, it's usually the mother who's staying home and supervising them.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

The shortage of skilled labor predates the pandemic. It wasn't borne of the pandemic relief checks. And maybe a lot of workers are sitting this out because they don't want to risk getting infected or getting exposed and infecting those they live with.

Not sure about what the rest of what you are saying has to do with it, crypto and Amazon, et. al.

Both you and Racket spoke of capitalist efficiency. My retort was that is a joke with the Fed distorting markets. Crypto and wealth inequality are the result. If one can’t see that, I have nothing to add.

Okay, let's talk.

You know why crap like crypto caught on? Here's why.

Because it used to be that labor was treated for the valuable resource it is. Companies tried to build employee loyalty with things like a decent living wage, and not to mention real world considerations like health care, retirement plans, pensions, and other necessities that a responsible person could use to safeguard themselves and their families.

Then labor took a hit for several decades, union representation eroded, and labor lost ground. Pensions became a thing of the past, retirement plans became a diy enterprise, and wealth inequality exploded. The middle class shrank.

So, with things like 401K becoming the go-it-alone norm, people got more and more comfortable with chasing ever higher returns. Hence, speculation.

But frankly, crypto is a distraction. It is not a market driving force and more of an anomaly.

FWIW, if you want to talk about the real f'g things that shape standard of living, look at what Biden is trying to improve. And by that I mean access to education, raising the minimum wage, access to affordable health care, etc.

1. Labor taking a hit. Well sorta. More accurately labor gets paid in health insurance rather than dollars. It's still of value, but non-cash and not part of 'wages.' In other words, workers used to get say $1000/year in health insurance. Now they get, say, $10,000 in health insurance. If today's workers got that $10,000 cash instead of $10,000 in health insurance...their wages would obviously be far, far higher. Cash vs non-cash compensation complicates things greatly.

And most wage data is measured pre-tax. Which is silly. Measured post-tax wages, add the value of health care, and wages have risen strongly.

2. The middle class has shrunken, yes, because they moved into the upper middle class. This is a good thing, not a bad thing. Think about it...two $60,000 wages in a home, which is not that hard to get, is $120,000 and a lot of money.

3. I have no idea why crypto caught on. A lot of money sloshing around, a lot of men working from home probably did more than anything.

1m

Materials +11

Energy +9

Financials +8

Health +7

Retail +6

Industrials +6

Value +6

REITS +5

Gold +5

Non US Devlped +4

SP 500 +4

USA +3

Van MOMO +3

Emerging +3

Small Caps +3

Cons Discr +3

TIPS +2

Comms +2

Utils +2

Cons Staples +2

60/40 +2

Treas +1

Corp Bonds +1

Tech 0

Junk 0

BTC 0

TSLA 0

Hussman -1

China -1

Weed -2

GME -9

ARKK -9

Clean Energy -9

VXX -12

PTON -27

Feels like traders have decided on winners and losers this past month. Correlations are low now.

Winners: Old fashioned stocks. Industrials, materials, financials, real estate, gold.

Losers: Meme stocks, clean energy, tech

Would be fun if value stock picking gets popular again.

Non-US beat US first time in a while.

YTD

GME +755

BTC +101

Weed +49

Retail +48

Energy +43

Financials +29

Materials +22

Value +19

Industrials +19

REITS +17

Comms +16

Small Caps +15

Cons Discr +14

Van momo +14

USA +13

SP500 +13

Non US Devlped +11

Health +10

Hussman +9

Emerging +7

Utils +6

60/40 +6

Cons staples +5

Tech +5

TIPS +1

Junk +1

Treas -2

China -2

Gold -4

Corp Bonds -4

TSLA -5

ARKK -12

Clean Energy -15

VXX -45

PTON -45

Tech lagging YTD

Bonds repairing damage from 1Q 21

Still amazed by that REITS number. Geez.

I'm really jonesing for some PTON shares...

Hands up for Hussman. Killing it this year still even as market hits new highs. THe value bent of the market is clearly helping him a lot.

Maybe add Dogecoin?😬