Down goes the Dow

Racket, PhD wrote:

agip wrote:

the sad history of the collapse of currencies is probably a more apt comparison, for how I feel about the thing.

The dollar is used and abused by everyone - it's just bitcoin, writ large.

Clearly our leaders have lost interest in protecting the currency.

At some point dollar owners will realize this and ask for more interest.

Which would be very bad for the nation and world.

lol what? The USD is backed by 12 nuclear powered aircraft carriers and like 25 nuclear subs.

overspending on the military is a prime reason for currency problems.

You're arguing my side.

agip wrote:

Racket, PhD wrote:

lol what? The USD is backed by 12 nuclear powered aircraft carriers and like 25 nuclear subs.

overspending on the military is a prime reason for currency problems.

You're arguing my side.

I meant : Overspending on the military has been through history a prime reason for currency problems.

You are arguing my side.

agip wrote:

agip wrote:

overspending on the military is a prime reason for currency problems.

You're arguing my side.

I meant : Overspending on the military has been through history a prime reason for currency problems.

You are arguing my side.

.....like when? Maybe for some tinpot dictatorship spending like 50% GDP.

The military aspect is nice, but our economic power is just as forceful.

Don't be such a doomer

Racket, PhD wrote:

agip wrote:

I meant : Overspending on the military has been through history a prime reason for currency problems.

You are arguing my side.

.....like when? Maybe for some tinpot dictatorship spending like 50% GDP.

The military aspect is nice, but our economic power is just as forceful.

Don't be such a doomer

I'm fully invested, man. That gives me the right to complain all I want.

Will do some research on currency collapses, maybe.

Kansas City Fed 4/23:

“It is very difficult to handle the increased business with supply chain issues across all materials and finding anyone who wants to work. The federal government has incentivized people to stay home and not be productive.”

“Stimulus and increased unemployment money are wrecking the labor pool. Lower level employees are quitting to make just as much not working.”

“Unemployed workers have no incentive to return to work given the COVID bonus payments.”

“Entry level pay will need to be increased. This will create pressure on all other positions.”

It’s all good though....

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Kansas City Fed 4/23:

“It is very difficult to handle the increased business with supply chain issues across all materials and finding anyone who wants to work. The federal government has incentivized people to stay home and not be productive.”

“Stimulus and increased unemployment money are wrecking the labor pool. Lower level employees are quitting to make just as much not working.”

“Unemployed workers have no incentive to return to work given the COVID bonus payments.”

“Entry level pay will need to be increased. This will create pressure on all other positions.”

It’s all good though....

From what i can tell, this was pulled from ZeroHedge. That much is certain.

And it appears to be a gross misrepresentation. The comments are quoted from select contractors, though they are being passed off as if from the Federal Reserve Bank.

How about, first quote your sources, Igy. Like "ZEROHEDGE" and then we can all detect it for the misleading crap it is.

Links available on request.

The Russians hacked the Kansas City Fed site, so selected comments are likely fake, and not representative of business owners. Look for yourself:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

seattle prattle wrote:

From what i can tell, this was pulled from ZeroHedge. That much is certain.

And it appears to be a gross misrepresentation. The comments are quoted from select contractors, though they are being passed off as if from the Federal Reserve Bank.

How about, first quote your sources, Igy. Like "ZEROHEDGE" and then we can all detect it for the misleading crap it is.

Links available on request.

The Russians hacked the Kansas City Fed site, so selected comments are likely fake, and not representative of business owners. Look for yourself:

https://www.kansascityfed.org/surveys/manufacturing-survey/tenth-district-manufacturing-activity-expanded-further/

The Fed is quoting the contractors that they surveyed. That is why they used quotation marks in their article.

Here it is cut and pasted:

Special Questions

This month contacts were asked special questions about how business indicators compare to pre-pandemic levels and about the greatest risks to their firm for the coming year. ...

Selected Manufacturing Comments

“It is very difficult to handle the increased business with supply chain issues across all materials and finding anyone who wants to work. The federal government has incentivized people to stay home and not be productive.”

“Stimulus and increased unemployment money are wrecking the labor pool. Lower level employees are quitting to make just as much not working.”

So the quotes are just the opinions of some probably very biased contractors which appeared in the Fed's survey and they are repeating it therein. Again, that is clearly what it is if one looks at it in context, and since they used quotation marks.

You can apologize now.

Hold on partner. Just the other day I posted on my own observations very similar to comments in that report. And agip said no that was wrong, perhaps you did too. If it wasn’t relevant why was it nearly 30% of the report, and I didn’t even post all of the comments.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Hold on partner. Just the other day I posted on my own observations very similar to comments in that report. And agip said no that was wrong, perhaps you did too. If it wasn’t relevant why was it nearly 30% of the report, and I didn’t even post all of the comments.

Here is what is relevant, partner. Their first paragraph of the report:

"Tenth District manufacturing activity expanded further with the highest monthly composite reading in survey history, and expectations for future activity increased considerably (Chart 1, Tables 1 & 2). The index of prices paid for raw materials compared to a month ago also reached the highest level in survey history. In addition, finished goods prices expanded more from a month ago and a year ago. Materials price expectations for district firms over the next six months continued to rise, and many firms also expect higher finished goods prices."

It is a very positive report, regardless of how ZeroHedge would spin it to fit their narrative. And regardless, they f'ng lied. They are trying to pass very politically charged comments as coming from the Fed, and the Fed never said them. The Fed quoted contractors who said them.

Un-f'ng-believable.

Igy is your prototypical far-right anti-masker covidiot. He holds up a Trump head shot in one hand while the other hand works on a different head shot. There is no pro-white-supremacy conspiracy theory that he doesn’t fall for. Lying is not immoral to him.

So why do you expect him to speak truth about something that does not fit his narrative?

Gruntz wrote:

Igy is your prototypical far-right anti-masker covidiot. He holds up a Trump head shot in one hand while the other hand works on a different head shot. There is no pro-white-supremacy conspiracy theory that he doesn’t fall for. Lying is not immoral to him.

So why do you expect him to speak truth about something that does not fit his narrative?

Oh, it's Trump and masks is it?

Un fing believable it was 2/3 of the report, and it is a right wing conspiracy. Get a grip.

Special Questions

This month contacts were asked special questions about how business indicators compare to pre-pandemic levels and about the greatest risks to their firm for the coming year. Around 70% of firms indicated selling prices are higher compared to pre-pandemic levels, mostly due to increasing materials prices (Chart 2). Half of firms reported higher new orders compared to before the pandemic while 36% reported fewer new orders. The distribution of firms reporting higher or lower employment levels was relatively even and varied by industry. For the biggest risks affecting business plans over the next year, 60% of firms indicated the lack of qualified workers and supply chain issues are two of the biggest risks (Chart 3). Additionally, 28% of firms recorded the inability to pass through price increases as a primary risk, and 23% of firms noted the low demand for products/services as a risk to business plans over the next year.

Selected Manufacturing Comments

“It is very difficult to handle the increased business with supply chain issues across all materials and finding anyone who wants to work. The federal government has incentivized people to stay home and not be productive.”

“Stimulus and increased unemployment money are wrecking the labor pool. Lower level employees are quitting to make just as much not working.”

“Unemployed workers have no incentive to return to work given the COVID bonus payments.”

“Entry level pay will need to be increased. This will create pressure on all other positions.”

“We believe the shortage of workers is not an impact from the 2nd stimulus as much as a systematic problem of the gig economy and simply not enough workers for unskilled and critical skill positions. We are focused on retention.”

“We are facing significant supply chain problems due to COVID-19 issues, tariff issues, and the weather problems in Texas earlier his year.”

“Steel market needs to become stable. Steel producers recording record profits, while downstream suffers margin erosion.”

“Largest raw material provider is refusing to deliver previously accepted purchased orders at accepted prices - demanding 18% price increase to fill previously accepted orders of flat rolled USA stainless steel.”

“We could greatly grow our business if it were not for steel and labor issues. We could get more orders and employ more people. Supply chains are a mess and we cannot get people to apply. We pay upwards of $20 or more per hour with full benefits.”

“Liquidity is the BIGGEST issue. Ramp up of production is stressing cash more than usual since we depleted cash during the downturn more than what would have been typical.”

“The labor shortage is driving up the price of most proteins in food manufacturing.”

Gruntz wrote:

Igy is your prototypical far-right anti-masker covidiot. He holds up a Trump head shot in one hand while the other hand works on a different head shot. There is no pro-white-supremacy conspiracy theory that he doesn’t fall for. Lying is not immoral to him.

So why do you expect him to speak truth about something that does not fit his narrative?

On second thought you and Seattle are correct. McDonalds is paying $11/hour in a billboard advertising I passed earlier this morning. I have seen similar postings throughout town, I would say that is a decent starting wage in Boise. I am pretty sure it is Trump, Covid deniers, Zerohedge, and Russians, causing this labor shortage. This is strange being a more conservative region. Nevertheless, it is definitely not enhanced unemployment and stimulus payments. Trumpers are just trying to sabotage this brilliant program. Perhaps we should root out these evil dooers. Force them to wear blue masks with a red“T.” The Scarlet Letter for Trumpers. Pretty sure that would be effective.

Last comment, and then i give up.

First, I see that you think that a lie isn't a lie if it consumes a certain percentage of an article. BS.

Second, do you understand why those comments are listed in a section entitled "Selected Manufacturing Comments"? And do you see why each begins and ends in quotation marks? The reason is because they are merely posting selected comments. And to make that clear, they head the section with the word "Comments" and they put them in quotation marks. They are just repeating what the manufacturers said. The Fed didn't say them, the manufacturers did.

ZeroHedge misrepresented the truth. Par for the course for them....

The shortage of skilled labor pre-dates the pandemic and has a lot to do with the aging workforce and the fact that they are retiring and younger workers are not attracted to the jobs to a large extent. This has been going on for a while, as I said. No need to put a political spin on it unless you want to start talking about guaranteeing a living wage and those things.

For the record, it's not batpoop crazy to think that all this cash stimulus handed out plus extra unemployment plus lower spending due to plague conditions = some significant number of people reluctant to go back to work.

I mean you don't have to be an Ayn Rand disciple to believe that some significant number of people only work to pay the bills and no more.

Add that on top of a long-term skilled worker shortage and yeah it's going to be hard to get employees unless you can pay up for them. The higher labor costs will be passed along to consumers. Which isn't the worst thing in the world.

Clearly, inflation is on the minds of executives:

https://twitter.com/LizAnnSonders/status/1386993115102384132?s=20

I'll also say that given this nation's tech and logisitics wizardry, the fact that some supply chains are frazzled is very bullish.

Companies want to make stuff, they think they can sell stuff, but can't get the raw materials? Believe me, this country will find a way to get them the raw materials. We can do that really well.

It's a short term problem that reveals a massive amount of demand in the economy, that will be fixed quickly. Bullish.

Any short term inflation spike from shortages is likely to fade as the invisible hand gets the supply chain in order.

No surprise here, but for Igy

WSJ:

The picturesque lakeside city of Coeur d’Alene, Idaho, tops the list of the country’s hottest emerging housing markets, according to a new ranking launched Tuesday.

The Wall Street Journal/Realtor.com Emerging Housing Market Index identifies the top metro areas for home buyers seeking an appreciating housing market and appealing lifestyle amenities.

After Coeur d’Alene, the top metro areas in the ranking are Austin, Texas, Springfield, Ohio, and Billings, Mont. Spokane, Wash., just across the state border from Coeur d’Alene, ranks fifth.

Buyers from other Western states are moving to northern Idaho in droves, seeking a more rural and less expensive place to live, said Kristen Johnson, a real-estate agent at Century 21 Beutler & Associates in Coeur d’Alene. Workers able to work remotely are also choosing to relocate, she said.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/lakeside-idaho-city-is-americas-hottest-housing-market-in-new-wsj-realtor-com-index-11619515802?mod=hp_lead_pos5