wondering wrote:
Gruntz wrote:
He doesn’t understand how to admit being wrong.
He wasn’t really wrong. He and Earnie were just talking about two different things.
The report both his and mine was referencing the S&P 500 Index, with “companies” being all 500 components. Take that any way you wish, but it is not two things.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
wondering wrote:
He wasn’t really wrong. He and Earnie were just talking about two different things.
The report both his and mine was referencing the S&P 500 Index, with “companies” being all 500 components. Take that any way you wish, but it is not two things.
It clearly was two different things, as I pointed out previously. Earnie was referring to a handful of individual companies and you were referencing the entire index. As I mentioned, that does not make you wrong, so there is no need to be defensive.
Baloney, you or either just dumb or a troll. Whatever, I really don’t care either way.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Baloney, you or either just dumb or a troll. Whatever, I really don’t care either way.
If you don’t care, why do keep replying and insulting him? Can you say “TRIGGERED”?
Evidently triggered is a terminal disease for you. ?♂️
How is this not going to be inflationary?
WSJ:
A quicker-than-expected recovery in U.S. manufacturing is resulting in supply disruptions and higher costs for materials used in products meeting increased demand.
Prices for steel, aluminum, lumber and other materials are rising in response to higher order volumes. Commodity supply chains are now clogged with orders, causing some producers to add weekend hours and overtime for employees. Orders that took a week or two to fill during the summer now require six to eight weeks, according to manufacturers coping with extended wait times for essential supplies.
“The lack of availability is what kills you,” said Mark Verhein, president of Church Metal Spinning Co., a Milwaukee-based manufacturer of steel parts for large industrial engines. “If you can’t get the material, that’s vexing.”
When many factories shut down for more than a month last spring to contain the spread of the coronavirus, production of industrial commodities dropped off as well. Inventories evaporated, and suppliers were wary about ramping up production during what was expected to be a slow recovery for manufacturing in a U.S. economy that had entered into a recession in February. But demand for durable goods picked up in late summer and gained momentum during fall even as Covid-19 infections soared to record levels.
wondering wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
The report both his and mine was referencing the S&P 500 Index, with “companies” being all 500 components. Take that any way you wish, but it is not two things.
It clearly was two different things, as I pointed out previously. Earnie was referring to a handful of individual companies and you were referencing the entire index. As I mentioned, that does not make you wrong, so there is no need to be defensive.
I wouldn't spend much effort trying to decipher Igy - as you can see, it's essentially like talking to a 3rd grader.
Trying to decipher Jerome "Maserati" Powell though, that's where it's at.
agip wrote:
How is this not going to be inflationary?
WSJ:
A quicker-than-expected recovery in U.S. manufacturing is resulting in supply disruptions and higher costs for materials used in products meeting increased demand.
Prices for steel, aluminum, lumber and other materials are rising in response to higher order volumes. Commodity supply chains are now clogged with orders, causing some producers to add weekend hours and overtime for employees. Orders that took a week or two to fill during the summer now require six to eight weeks, according to manufacturers coping with extended wait times for essential supplies.
“The lack of availability is what kills you,” said Mark Verhein, president of Church Metal Spinning Co., a Milwaukee-based manufacturer of steel parts for large industrial engines. “If you can’t get the material, that’s vexing.”
When many factories shut down for more than a month last spring to contain the spread of the coronavirus, production of industrial commodities dropped off as well. Inventories evaporated, and suppliers were wary about ramping up production during what was expected to be a slow recovery for manufacturing in a U.S. economy that had entered into a recession in February. But demand for durable goods picked up in late summer and gained momentum during fall even as Covid-19 infections soared to record levels.
Meh, materials for construction and building have been going up since like 2015 - although US steel is definitely sort of an interesting element. Fed only cares about bread and eggs
Dr. Racket wrote:
wondering wrote:
It clearly was two different things, as I pointed out previously. Earnie was referring to a handful of individual companies and you were referencing the entire index. As I mentioned, that does not make you wrong, so there is no need to be defensive.
I wouldn't spend much effort trying to decipher Igy - as you can see, it's essentially like talking to a 3rd grader.
Trying to decipher Jerome "Maserati" Powell though, that's where it's at.
Well, talk about somebody who’s predictions never come true. So, why would you try to decipher Powell? It is more your belief in Fed powers.
agip wrote:
How is this not going to be inflationary?
WSJ:
A quicker-than-expected recovery in U.S. manufacturing is resulting in supply disruptions and higher costs for materials used in products meeting increased demand.
Prices for steel, aluminum, lumber and other materials are rising in response to higher order volumes. Commodity supply chains are now clogged with orders, causing some producers to add weekend hours and overtime for employees. Orders that took a week or two to fill during the summer now require six to eight weeks, according to manufacturers coping with extended wait times for essential supplies.
“The lack of availability is what kills you,” said Mark Verhein, president of Church Metal Spinning Co., a Milwaukee-based manufacturer of steel parts for large industrial engines. “If you can’t get the material, that’s vexing.”
When many factories shut down for more than a month last spring to contain the spread of the coronavirus, production of industrial commodities dropped off as well. Inventories evaporated, and suppliers were wary about ramping up production during what was expected to be a slow recovery for manufacturing in a U.S. economy that had entered into a recession in February. But demand for durable goods picked up in late summer and gained momentum during fall even as Covid-19 infections soared to record levels.
My reaction since the beginning of the pandemic has been that I think things will be inflationary in the short term, yet deflationary in the long-term.
You can already see some inflation in things that people are consuming, namely Airbnb stays to escape the city/covid etc. This summer will put all of that into overdrive. Idk the car sale statistics, but it seems like everybody is getting a new car lately too.
Long term, demographics and technology are so deflationary that I don't see how the central bank actions we've seen will overcome that.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1353144861650804738
While sufficiently extreme conditions can still hold us to a neutral market outlook, the shift to a bearish outlook requires deterioration or divergence in our measures of market internals, which are our most reliable gauge of whether investor psychology is inclined toward speculation or toward risk-aversion.
Swaglord_the_real_one_1_1_1 wrote:
agip wrote:
How is this not going to be inflationary?
WSJ:
A quicker-than-expected recovery in U.S. manufacturing is resulting in supply disruptions and higher costs for materials used in products meeting increased demand.
Prices for steel, aluminum, lumber and other materials are rising in response to higher order volumes. Commodity supply chains are now clogged with orders, causing some producers to add weekend hours and overtime for employees. Orders that took a week or two to fill during the summer now require six to eight weeks, according to manufacturers coping with extended wait times for essential supplies.
“The lack of availability is what kills you,” said Mark Verhein, president of Church Metal Spinning Co., a Milwaukee-based manufacturer of steel parts for large industrial engines. “If you can’t get the material, that’s vexing.”
When many factories shut down for more than a month last spring to contain the spread of the coronavirus, production of industrial commodities dropped off as well. Inventories evaporated, and suppliers were wary about ramping up production during what was expected to be a slow recovery for manufacturing in a U.S. economy that had entered into a recession in February. But demand for durable goods picked up in late summer and gained momentum during fall even as Covid-19 infections soared to record levels.
My reaction since the beginning of the pandemic has been that I think things will be inflationary in the short term, yet deflationary in the long-term.
You can already see some inflation in things that people are consuming, namely Airbnb stays to escape the city/covid etc. This summer will put all of that into overdrive. Idk the car sale statistics, but it seems like everybody is getting a new car lately too.
Long term, demographics and technology are so deflationary that I don't see how the central bank actions we've seen will overcome that.
Car prices adjusted for inflation are pretty static. Used car market is crazy but that's less an inflation thing and more like a demand thing combined with the fact a lot of people have a lot of money and want weekend sports cars.
What we're seeing is deflation in traditional basket items, and severe inflation in asset things like houses, equities, literally every commodity (both physical and virtual), etc
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1353144861650804738
Grantham in 2013, since he uses 7 year returns. The guy has been a very bad prognosticator. He forecast negative returns for US big caps from 2014-2020. That ah did not happen.
"On our data, with U.S. large cap equities offering negative returns (-1.5%) except for high quality stocks (+2.2%), with foreign developed and emerging equities overpriced (+3.7%), and with bonds and cash also very unattractive, investors have to twist and turn to find even a semi-respectable portfolio," Grantham noted. "It is a particularly tough process today with nowhere to hide and no very good investments compared to, say, the time around the 2000 bubble when there were several."
https://www.businessinsider.com/gmo-quarterly-letter-q2-2013-2013-7Unfortunately, for most investors, very like correct this time.
On bonds, here's grantham missing one of the great bull markets of all time. He said that we'd have 7 years of negative bond returns, starting in 2013.
Instead it's been a bonanza of fixed income profits.
Grantham is woefully out of sync with global markets.
"With the exception of emerging market debt, bonds are priced to deliver truly lousy returns over the next 7 years--losses of 1% to 3% per year after inflation. And cash is priced to break even."
https://www.businessinsider.com/gmo-stock-forecasts-november-2012-2012-11
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Unfortunately, for most investors, very like correct this time.
well maybe, but clearly that would be just chance.
In any case, I don't put much belief in anyone who gets things wrong year after year and who would have cost me my retirement, had I listened to him.
agip wrote:
On bonds, here's grantham missing one of the great bull markets of all time. He said that we'd have 7 years of negative bond returns, starting in 2013.
Instead it's been a bonanza of fixed income profits.
Grantham is woefully out of sync with global markets.
"With the exception of emerging market debt, bonds are priced to deliver truly lousy returns over the next 7 years--losses of 1% to 3% per year after inflation. And cash is priced to break even."
https://www.businessinsider.com/gmo-stock-forecasts-november-2012-2012-11
Oh, and to add to that thought. How much in $Trillions of fiscal and monetary support postponed or made that market rebalance greater and more severe?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip wrote:
On bonds, here's grantham missing one of the great bull markets of all time. He said that we'd have 7 years of negative bond returns, starting in 2013.
Instead it's been a bonanza of fixed income profits.
Grantham is woefully out of sync with global markets.
"With the exception of emerging market debt, bonds are priced to deliver truly lousy returns over the next 7 years--losses of 1% to 3% per year after inflation. And cash is priced to break even."
https://www.businessinsider.com/gmo-stock-forecasts-november-2012-2012-11Oh, and to add to that thought. How much in $Trillions of fiscal and monetary support postponed or made that market rebalance greater and more severe?
that is irrelevant
if you predict market performance, you have to take all measures into consideration. You don't get a 'yeah but who would have thought that...' card to play
If I lose money in stocks, I don't get to say 'yeah but who would have thought a once in a century pandemic would crash the world economy' and get my money back.
Grantham made his bet and lost it. He has made the same bet and lost the same bet for years and years and years.
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