Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I was out running while you were still asleep in a stupor from your psyche drugs. ?
Actually I was running while you were nursing your hangover with that coffee.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I was out running while you were still asleep in a stupor from your psyche drugs. ?
Actually I was running while you were nursing your hangover with that coffee.
You’ll still always be ugly (physically and personally), slower, slovenly, and insane no matter how much I drink.
Oh, and poorer, not that it matters.
“Over the past 5 years, the revenues of S&P 500 technology companies have grown at a compound annual rate of 12%, while the corresponding stock prices have soared by 56% annually. Over time, price/revenue ratios come back in line. Currently, that would require an 83% plunge in tech stocks (recall the 1969-70 tech massacre). The plunge may be muted to about 65% given several years of revenue growth. If you understand values and market history, you know we’re not joking.”
– John P. Hussman, Ph.D., March 7, 2000
“Presently, I expect that the completion of this market cycle is likely to involve a loss in the S&P 500 on the order of 65-70%. I realize, of course, that this sounds insane. The problem is that this projection is fully in line with a century of evidence, and is consistent with the extent of market losses that would be run-of-the-mill given present valuation extremes. Indeed, the only reason that the S&P 500 did not lose a similar amount during the 2000-2002 collapse (though the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 lost a weirdly precise -83%) is that the market did not actually reach its valuation norms by the end of that cycle. Instead, the market went on to breach its 2002 bear market low during the 2007-2009 collapse. That’s when valuations finally moved to levels that I viewed as undervalued from the standpoint of historical norms (as I noted in late-October 2008).”
—John Hussman, December 2020 Market Commentary
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kevincoldiron/2020/12/01/help-my-teenage-son-is-a-stock-speculator/?sh=513d42585253
i found the article to be balanced and reasonable. It doesn't dismiss the practice but instead takes the approach that we will have to see how it plays out, while noting that their is reason for cautious optimism.
Honestly, i don't think that is a problem, though what concerns me is when these kids grow into young adults and actually have to build sustainable wealth, I hope they understand that they need to back-up and take some of the speculative money off the table and put it into savings. They don't do that now, and i hope they don't overlearn this speculation angle and forego the stable base to their finances.
Anyway, what the author describes is totally realistic from my experience. And then some....
Good points. If it was easy, there would be no one to work.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
“Over the past 5 years, the revenues of S&P 500 technology companies have grown at a compound annual rate of 12%, while the corresponding stock prices have soared by 56% annually. Over time, price/revenue ratios come back in line. Currently, that would require an 83% plunge in tech stocks (recall the 1969-70 tech massacre). The plunge may be muted to about 65% given several years of revenue growth. If you understand values and market history, you know we’re not joking.”
– John P. Hussman, Ph.D., March 7, 2000
“Presently, I expect that the completion of this market cycle is likely to involve a loss in the S&P 500 on the order of 65-70%. I realize, of course, that this sounds insane. The problem is that this projection is fully in line with a century of evidence, and is consistent with the extent of market losses that would be run-of-the-mill given present valuation extremes. Indeed, the only reason that the S&P 500 did not lose a similar amount during the 2000-2002 collapse (though the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 lost a weirdly precise -83%) is that the market did not actually reach its valuation norms by the end of that cycle. Instead, the market went on to breach its 2002 bear market low during the 2007-2009 collapse. That’s when valuations finally moved to levels that I viewed as undervalued from the standpoint of historical norms (as I noted in late-October 2008).”
—John Hussman, December 2020 Market Commentary
Igy - Please don't post anything by John Hussman. Pretty please. The guy is a clown.
Buy low and sell high.
funny you should say that. S.P. junior is well on his way to making that his work. 2nd year at a good university Business Degree program, with stated intent of going into a hedge fund firm or investment banking, etc.
He's come to understand that it isn't easy as you say, and what little i know of it, i have some great stories from seeing it evolve.
Sally Vix wrote:
Igy - Please don't post anything by John Hussman. Pretty please. The guy is a clown.
Stupid is as stupid does.
wu-tang wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
Igy - Please don't post anything by John Hussman. Pretty please. The guy is a clown.
Stupid is as stupid does.
Whooping on your portfolios over the past year, just like I said he would. And that is just tge beginning.
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hsgfx/performancewu-tang wrote:
Sally Vix wrote:
Igy - Please don't post anything by John Hussman. Pretty please. The guy is a clown.
Stupid is as stupid does.
ODB says change your name.
seattle prattle wrote:
funny you should say that. S.P. junior is well on his way to making that his work. 2nd year at a good university Business Degree program, with stated intent of going into a hedge fund firm or investment banking, etc.
He's come to understand that it isn't easy as you say, and what little i know of it, i have some great stories from seeing it evolve.
That is great and I wish him well. In my coaching days, I had a lot of free time during the summer. My son was a tool pusher on a couple of auto engine rebuilds. He would read the Chilton manuals for fun. Not surprisingly he became a mechanical engineer. While your son is at it, if he hasn’t started yet, he may begin to look at requirement/course for a CFA. I would assume that would be a requirement for most managers.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
wu-tang wrote:
Stupid is as stupid does.
Whooping on your portfolios over the past year, just like I said he would. And that is just tge beginning.
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/hsgfx/performance
He has the worst fund on Morningstar. I would post its performance but I don't want to embarrass the guy. His fund is a joke.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
funny you should say that. S.P. junior is well on his way to making that his work. 2nd year at a good university Business Degree program, with stated intent of going into a hedge fund firm or investment banking, etc.
He's come to understand that it isn't easy as you say, and what little i know of it, i have some great stories from seeing it evolve.
That is great and I wish him well. In my coaching days, I had a lot of free time during the summer. My son was a tool pusher on a couple of auto engine rebuilds. He would read the Chilton manuals for fun. Not surprisingly he became a mechanical engineer. While your son is at it, if he hasn’t started yet, he may begin to look at requirement/course for a CFA. I would assume that would be a requirement for most managers.
I have to say it is just amazing how they seem to have these drives that come out of nowhere and propel them. SP junior has been doing his business things for many years now believe it or not and it's all him - we just sit back and watch that he doesn't get into trouble.
As far as college, he's taken accounting courses though i don't think that is his favorite area by a long shot.
BTW, i work with mech. engineers and have so much respect for them. Great field to be in.
And as for Hussman Str,. Grwth outperforming our portfolios over the last year, i know you weren't directing that at me in particular, but i checked, and mine has outperformed it in the order of magnitude of a multiple of almost 4 1/2 times.
Okay, here's one for ya: I told him that Paypal and others are getting into bitcoin, and i was looking at it. He says, 'I told you not to get that. I told you!' like he's the adult in the room. LOL.
Hey Igy I just closed on a big account - it will be my biggest, actually.
Really good people - a pleasure to work with and they need my help.
Our business is maligned for good reasons sometimes...but it sure feels good when it all works and we can take good care of good people.
agip wrote:
Hey Igy I just closed on a big account - it will be my biggest, actually.
Really good people - a pleasure to work with and they need my help.
Our business is maligned for good reasons sometimes...but it sure feels good when it all works and we can take good care of good people.
Agip - serious question. Why would I ever go through you to buy mutual funds or stocks when I can purchase them on my own for free? And yes - I know a heck of a lot about investments.
Sally Vix wrote:
agip wrote:
Hey Igy I just closed on a big account - it will be my biggest, actually.
Really good people - a pleasure to work with and they need my help.
Our business is maligned for good reasons sometimes...but it sure feels good when it all works and we can take good care of good people.
Agip - serious question. Why would I ever go through you to buy mutual funds or stocks when I can purchase them on my own for free? And yes - I know a heck of a lot about investments.
It's like changing your oil. Why would you pay someone to do it if you can do it yourself?
All the same reasons apply.
I’m a D2 female runner. Our coach explicitly told us not to visit LetsRun forums.
Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year
2024 College Track & Field Open Coaching Positions Discussion
RENATO can you talk about the preparation of Emile Cairess 2:06
adizero Road to Records with Yomif Kejelcha, Agnes Ngetich, Hobbs Kessler & many more is Saturday