In that thread somewhere is one of my favorites, federal spending vs receipts as a % of gdp.
In that thread somewhere is one of my favorites, federal spending vs receipts as a % of gdp.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
For the moment, the market is all about stimulus or lack thereof. Little to do with Trump or Biden,
?
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
agip wrote:
keep in mind that Obama did a pretty good job at keeping the deficit in line. His numbers are misleading because 2009 had massive stimulus, which made the deficit enormous. But Bush2 signed the 2009 budget, not Obama. After 2010 or so Obama was pretty good at keeping the deficit under control.
I'm not taking any specific actions in regard to the election, no.
I've been buying emerging markets pretty steadily, and maintaining my gold position. Those will only work if the dollar is stable or falls, so I guess I'm not optimistic about the USD.
And I'm light in equities - at around 59% vs a normal of 65%.
Energy has been a dead trade for 15 years - Seems the market is telling us loud and clear that oil is not a growth industry anymore. How the world has changed.
I have a reflation bet on. but I'm losing confidence in it. Mostly with TIPS.
Huh, so I am suppose to believe that electric car companies and solar companies that have no profit are a better investment than a major oil company. I don’t think so.
I have no idea.
but the market is telling us, via 15 years of declining stock prices, that energy companies are not growth companies anymore.
VDE, the vanguard energy ETF, is down 2% per year for 15 years.
15 years!
that's secular decline.
but sure, at some point the stocks might fall to a level where they make money for people.
But buying the cash flows of companies in a dying industry is historically a very bad idea for long-term investors.
Maserati wrote:
Lol. I showed Mrs. Maserati, and of course she already knew all about her.
Funny, I thought futures might rise on this news.
Go gold! Excluding my big purchase of miners earlier in the year, everything I have other than TSLA and AMZN are still in the red. What shiite?.
?
interesting that bitcoin is down 2% today but gold is holding value.
today anyway, btc is not a store of value in a crisis.
market down just 90 bps now.
would be such a slap to Trump if the market rose today
Punter wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
For the moment, the market is all about stimulus or lack thereof. Little to do with Trump or Biden,
?
Market bounced on Pelosi comments “middle ground will be found on stimulus.”
?
agip wrote:
Maserati wrote:
Lol. I showed Mrs. Maserati, and of course she already knew all about her.
Funny, I thought futures might rise on this news.
Go gold! Excluding my big purchase of miners earlier in the year, everything I have other than TSLA and AMZN are still in the red. What shiite?.
?
interesting that bitcoin is down 2% today but gold is holding value.
today anyway, btc is not a store of value in a crisis.
I see gold down $2.80 on the day, and miners down. Bitcoin is probably even more manipulated than gold, certainly probably more volatile—and will be, as long as gold is considered tier 1 capital and btc is not.
“Certainly probably”, one of my favorites
Getting slaughtered today, everything I have is down 2% except for Tesla, which is down 6%.
Oh happy day! Beers early today???
Too bad I don’t do drugs—from what I hear, I could use some today. C2H5OH will have to do, good thing I am a happy drunk!
Just...getting...decimated. Effing airlines in the green today.
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2020 (with 18 of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 17 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 16 have reported a positive revenue surprise.
Earnie wrote:
Earnings Scorecard: For Q3 2020 (with 18 of the companies in the S&P 500 reporting actual results), 17 S&P 500 companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 16 have reported a positive revenue surprise.
From same report: “However, it should be noted that analysts made substantial cuts to EPS estimates for Q3 during the second quarter (March 31 to June 30). During this period, the Q3 bottom-up EPS estimate declined by 23.6% (to 31.78 from $41.60).”
Wow. $31.78 is a pretty solid EPS.
George Corwin wrote:
Wow. $31.78 is a pretty solid EPS.
Last time it was that low the S&P 500 was 900 points lower. Maybe we will get there again.
[quote]Maserati wrote:
Getting slaughtered today, everything I have is down 2% except for Tesla, which is down 6%.
Same here.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
George Corwin wrote:
Wow. $31.78 is a pretty solid EPS.
Last time it was that low the S&P 500 was 900 points lower. Maybe we will get there again.
It’s an estimate. Not typically very accurate.
Try to keep up wrote:
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Last time it was that low the S&P 500 was 900 points lower. Maybe we will get there again.
It’s an estimate. Not typically very accurate.
Yes, and marked down over every quarter last five years.
https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1306580294099755008Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Try to keep up wrote:
It’s an estimate. Not typically very accurate.
Yes, and marked down over every quarter last five years.
Exactly. They’re rate of inaccuracy rivals your own.
indices made up all of the Friday drop plus some.
For once, i didn't over-react and waited it out, even adding a little while it was a bit lower this morning.,
GS says a blue wave would be a serious upgrade over trumponomics.
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