Down goes the Dow

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  • agip
    registered
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 11:37am CST
    re: s m h
    Forum Index
    s m h wrote:

    The big boys don't use their own money to buy stocks, they borrow from banks and use bank money. The price they pay for stocks is the price of the stock plus the price of the interest on the loan. When rates are cheap, the loan doesn't cost them much, so they borrow more and spend it, increasing demand, which increased demand drives up prices.

    it's not even as complicated as that - when you can borrow money at rock bottom rates, some of it will find its way into the stock market. this is not long term, rock steady money like 401k money.

    this si money that will disappear light lightning when the markets start falling. Because people who invest with borrowed money know that they can be destroyed if they can't pay back the loan.

    there is no doubt that cheap money has inflated the stock market. To what degree is unknowable.

    I suspect today's huge rise in teh vix is people who have invested with borrowed money and need to cut their losses really quickly - so they all buy options at the same time, which drives up the price of the options and therefore the VIX.
  • agip
    registered
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 11:43am CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    anyone want a gentleperson's bet?

    I just bought $500 of an ETF that tracks the Greek stock market.
    Ticker GREK - 39 shares at $12.85.

    I am willing to bet $100, paid to the winner's favorite charity, that this investment will beat my opponent's best single pick as of 12/31/2015

    any takers?
  • Flagpole
    registered
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 12:03pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    agip wrote:

    Hey Flagpole - Krugman's column today is a question I know you've thought about a lot - how much credit a president should get for good economic times. His answer is 'it depends' but thinks repubs want it both ways when they both blame obama for slow growth but don't give him credit for the current faster growth:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/05/opinion/paul-krugman-presidents-and-the-economy.html?rref=collection%2Fcolumn%2Fpaul-krugman

    I would cut and paste but apparently the NYT figured out how to stop that.

    Ah yes. A very smart column by Mr. Krugman. His most important point is that since the Republicans have been blaming Obama for the tepid economy to date, and they now can no longer do that, they can't now decide that he is irrelevant. As I have long said, if you give blame to a president for the economy then you have to give them credit too, and if you give the power to the President to affect the economy so much, then you have to also give it to OTHER presidents. So, for example, if Obama is to blame for a perceived bad economy up until recently, then you have to also blame Bush for giving us (perhaps even creating as it did start with him) the Great Recession.

    The lesson here is don't pin the ways of the economy on your opposition just because it suits you at the moment. Economies change, and the dude you ripped on before just might still be at the helm.

    This is why a Democrat will win the White House in 2016.

    Thanks for the link. Nice job and spot on Paul Krugman.
  • Next Stop K5
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 12:42pm CST
    re: Flagpole
    Forum Index
    Flagpole wrote:

    Next Stop K5 wrote:

    Sinking like a brick wrote:

    After less than 2 hours trading on what is effectively the first real business day of 2015, dow is down 256.

    Only needs to sink another 2000 and we'll have the privilege of seeing K5 back on here posting under his own name! (much needed now with mas hiding in the shadows)


    Umm...K5 predicted Dow below 13,000, so I think it needs to go down a lot more than 2,000 before he comes back to crow...and even then, it's way too late at this point. The amount of SHARES I have bought and gained since he made this prediction (started this thread) is insane. If it goes down to 13,000, I'll just continue to buy and then it will all swell back up again.


    Yay for you. But wrong on K5.

    He WILL come back in full force when HE feels comfortable doing so, NOT when YOU think he would have justification for thinking he was right.
  • Good for the goose
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 12:46pm CST
    re: Flagpole
    Forum Index
    Why is it that Bush didn't blame Clinton for handing him the makings of the worst recession since the great depression? It was refreshing to see a Republican in the white house, who got busy working on the problem and not working overtime on blaming. Wasn't long before we saw an as-yet-to-be-matched before and after, 4+ years of double digit year-over-year quarterly earnings growth from the S&P 500.

    Wow, just wow! If only those dead-beat home owners hadn't felt they were entitled to their homes without having to pay their mortgages, we'd be seeing DOW 25K.

    Another Chief Blamer In Charge with hand-outs for the lazy and stoned is the last thing we need more of.
  • agip
    registered
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 12:50pm CST
    re: Good for the goose
    Forum Index
    um, bush 2 did blame clinton. Care to start over?

    http://money.cnn.com/2002/08/07/news/economy/bush_cheney/

    NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Although last week's revision of U.S. gross domestic product data for 2001 may have been old news for the economy, it was something of a stroke of luck for President Bush, who has since used it as evidence that he inherited an economic mess when he took office.

    Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, in separate speeches Wednesday, both claimed the U.S. economy was already in recession when they were inaugurated in January 2001, implying the blame for the slowdown rested on President Clinton's shoulders.

    Both men also made assurances that they had a handle on the problems facing the economy.


    "When I took office, our economy was beginning a recession," Bush said in a speech at a Mississippi high school. "Then our economy was hit by terrorists. Then our economy was hit by corporate scandals. But I'm certain of this: We won't let fear undermine our economy and we're not going to let fraud undermine it either."
  • Murray (yes, really)
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 1:42pm CST
    Forum Index
    Now down 316. Somebody is making money, and it's not me.
  • Murray (yes, really)
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 2:00pm CST
    re: Murray (yes, really)
    Forum Index
    r u kidding me? now down 350. hey flagpole, start buying!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
  • Klondike5 Rocks!
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 2:47pm CST
    re: Maserati
    Forum Index
    Bounce back today, where's the bottom? I say 13,000.
  • Wasn't in diapers then
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 2:57pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    agip wrote:

    um, bush 2 did blame clinton. Care to start over?

    http://money.cnn.com/2002/08/07/news/economy/bush_cheney/

    NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Although last week's revision of U.S. gross domestic product data for 2001 may have been old news for the economy, it was something of a stroke of luck for President Bush, who has since used it as evidence that he inherited an economic mess when he took office.

    Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, in separate speeches Wednesday, both claimed the U.S. economy was already in recession when they were inaugurated in January 2001, implying the blame for the slowdown rested on President Clinton's shoulders.

    Both men also made assurances that they had a handle on the problems facing the economy.


    "When I took office, our economy was beginning a recession," Bush said in a speech at a Mississippi high school. "Then our economy was hit by terrorists. Then our economy was hit by corporate scandals. But I'm certain of this: We won't let fear undermine our economy and we're not going to let fraud undermine it either."

    Okay. So after he had solved the financial crisis and had the economy headed towards recovery, he finally had some time to imply that Clinton may have had a hand in it. You're right. Sounds just like captain zero's last six years.
  • agip
    registered
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 3:08pm CST
    re: Wasn't in diapers then
    Forum Index
    Wasn't in diapers then wrote:

    agip wrote:

    um, bush 2 did blame clinton. Care to start over?

    http://money.cnn.com/2002/08/07/news/economy/bush_cheney/

    NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Although last week's revision of U.S. gross domestic product data for 2001 may have been old news for the economy, it was something of a stroke of luck for President Bush, who has since used it as evidence that he inherited an economic mess when he took office.

    Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, in separate speeches Wednesday, both claimed the U.S. economy was already in recession when they were inaugurated in January 2001, implying the blame for the slowdown rested on President Clinton's shoulders.

    Both men also made assurances that they had a handle on the problems facing the economy.


    "When I took office, our economy was beginning a recession," Bush said in a speech at a Mississippi high school. "Then our economy was hit by terrorists. Then our economy was hit by corporate scandals. But I'm certain of this: We won't let fear undermine our economy and we're not going to let fraud undermine it either."

    Okay. So after he had solved the financial crisis and had the economy headed towards recovery, he finally had some time to imply that Clinton may have had a hand in it. You're right. Sounds just like captain zero's last six years.


    I hate to be insulting, but I will anyway. You don't seem to know what you are talking about.

    the 'financial crisis' was in 2008-9 - that was CAUSED by Bush, at the end of his admin. Clinton had been gone for 8 years by then. This article was in 2002, during a recession.

    There was nothing heading toward recovery in 2002 when Bush blamed Clinton - that was in the depths of a recession. it was a very bad time.

    you are either a semi impressive 14 year old or a really ignorant anything else.
  • agip
    registered
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 3:11pm CST
    re: Wasn't in diapers then
    Forum Index
    Wasn't in diapers then wrote:

    agip wrote:

    um, bush 2 did blame clinton. Care to start over?

    http://money.cnn.com/2002/08/07/news/economy/bush_cheney/

    NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Although last week's revision of U.S. gross domestic product data for 2001 may have been old news for the economy, it was something of a stroke of luck for President Bush, who has since used it as evidence that he inherited an economic mess when he took office.

    Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, in separate speeches Wednesday, both claimed the U.S. economy was already in recession when they were inaugurated in January 2001, implying the blame for the slowdown rested on President Clinton's shoulders.

    Both men also made assurances that they had a handle on the problems facing the economy.


    "When I took office, our economy was beginning a recession," Bush said in a speech at a Mississippi high school. "Then our economy was hit by terrorists. Then our economy was hit by corporate scandals. But I'm certain of this: We won't let fear undermine our economy and we're not going to let fraud undermine it either."

    Okay. So after he had solved the financial crisis and had the economy headed towards recovery, he finally had some time to imply that Clinton may have had a hand in it. You're right. Sounds just like captain zero's last six years.


    furthermore, Bush had been president for 2.5 years when he blamed clinton for the recession the country was in.

    Look, I agree clinton has some responsibility for the recession, but I also agree that bush 2 had a lot more to blame for the much, much worse recession Obama inherited.

    The 2002 recession was just a dot com hangover. the 2008-9 recession nearly eliminated the financial system of the country. different animals.
  • It's game over
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 3:19pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    I really can't stand the dems vs repubs BS... but, since you spout BS, I'll play...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxMInSfanqg
  • Texas Instrument
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 3:21pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    You are totally wrong, policy can take a long time to become part of the system.

    Problems during Bush's administration were the fault of the Clinton administration, just as the problems during the Obama administration have been the fault of the Bush administration.

    The problem with this is that Obama has done so much that could be so negative, that during the next administration we may likely see significant collapse.

    What has happened thus far has not been Obama's "fault" or "doing", that will only manifest toward the very end of his term, and during the following administration. The chickens will then ALL come home to roost.
  • agip
    registered
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 3:25pm CST
    re: Texas Instrument
    Forum Index
    Texas Instrument wrote:

    You are totally wrong, policy can take a long time to become part of the system.

    Problems during Bush's administration were the fault of the Clinton administration, just as the problems during the Obama administration have been the fault of the Bush administration.

    The problem with this is that Obama has done so much that could be so negative, that during the next administration we may likely see significant collapse.

    What has happened thus far has not been Obama's "fault" or "doing", that will only manifest toward the very end of his term, and during the following administration. The chickens will then ALL come home to roost.

    what exactly am I totally wrong on?

    anyway

    you sound like a chicken little character. zerohedge much?
  • Texas Instrument
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 3:48pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    Who is to blame/credit for what, and when.

    They're all nutjobs, but it was really Clinton and the Oracle who started the final movement of the death symphony. Heaven help us when the full effect of Obama's policies manifests. Me, I've only got 1 more year in the USA, then I'm gone, I hope things stay together until then...
  • agip
    registered
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 3:53pm CST
    re: Texas Instrument
    Forum Index
    Texas Instrument wrote:

    Who is to blame/credit for what, and when.

    They're all nutjobs, but it was really Clinton and the Oracle who started the final movement of the death symphony. Heaven help us when the full effect of Obama's policies manifests. Me, I've only got 1 more year in the USA, then I'm gone, I hope things stay together until then...


    well whatever. I said clinton was partly responsible for the 2000-2003 recession and bushie 2 was partly responsible for the 2008-2009 recession. not sure what can be so wrong about that. whatever.

    ok, I'll bite. which dastardly obama policies have started the final movement of the death symphony?

    cause where I'm looking, the dollar is soaring, gold is falling, the deficit is shrinking fast, the economy is accelerating and apparently resilient to global malaise...

    nothing is brilliant and light, but it is not bad either.
  • agip
    registered
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 3:56pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    sorry - I misquoted you on the origin of the death symphony - I see you said it was clinton and greenspan.

    but go on - do tell what is going on.
  • agip
    registered
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 4:17pm CST
    re: agip
    Forum Index
    this one is very sweet:

    http://thinkprogress.org/economy/2015/01/05/3607810/ceo-fire-obama-raise-wage/

    In the lead-up to the 2012 presidential election, David Siegel, billionaire chief of Florida timeshare company Westgate Resorts, sent an email to all employees. “Of course, as your employer, I can’t tell you whom to vote for,” Siegel wrote, but offered “a few facts that might help you decide what is in your best interest.” These included that re-electing Obama would “threaten your job” and result in “less benefits and certainly less opportunity for everyone.”

    Just over two years after penning that company-wide email, Siegel informed Westgate employees that instead of layoffs, he would boost their minimum wage to $10 per hour beginning in 2015.

    In fact, according to Siegel, 2014 was a banner year. “We’re experiencing the best year in our history and I wanted to do something to show my gratitude for the employees who make that possible,” Siegel said in announcing the wage hike. He also recently told the Orlando Business Journal that “things have never been better.”

    Westgate currently employees about 12,000 people. Though the minimum wage increase won’t impact all workers, including those who receive tips, commissions, or work under a collective bargaining agreement, a company spokesman told Vegas Inc. that thousands of employees will receive a raise because of the move.

    Despite writing in 2012 that any tax increases on the wealthy would mean job losses — “Rather than grow this company I will be forced to cut back,” he said at the time — Siegel has been extraordinarily successful growing Westgate in the two years since taxes were modestly increased on the wealthy. In 2014 alone, Siegel and Westgate bought a hotel in Las Vegas for $180 million, began constructing a new $11 million retail center in Orlando, and purchased the Cocoa Beach Pier. Siegel also acquired the Orlando Predators Arena Football team and continued constructing his 90,000 square-foot mansion, which will be the biggest in America once completed.

    Of course, Siegel isn’t the only conservative to predict economic doom if Obama won re-election. Among others were Mitt Romney, who argued that unemployment would be stuck above eight percent, and Donald Trump, who foresaw a crash in the stock market. Since November 2012, the unemployment rate has dropped to 5.8 percent while the stock market has jumped 4,500 points to record highs.
  • Did that on porpoise
    5 years ago 01/05/2015 5:38pm CST
    re: Texas Instrument
    Forum Index
    Texas Instrument wrote:

    Who is to blame/credit for what, and when.

    They're all nutjobs, but it was really Clinton and the Oracle who started the final movement of the death symphony. Heaven help us when the full effect of Obama's policies manifests. Me, I've only got 1 more year in the USA, then I'm gone, I hope things stay together until then...

    Where are you going that the economy is better than the U.S,?