The current numbers for week ending 8/7/2020 are decidedly worse, current quarter especially, but Q3 and Q4 estimates are also heading south. That really should be of no surprise since a V-shaped recovery is highly unlikely.
So where are we? Q2 GAAP estimated EPS marked down in one week from $18.17 to $15.09. For full year 2020 GAAP EPS estimate now $87.18 marked down from last week’s $92.59, and compares to 2019 Full Year of $139.47. The current rate of decline is mirroring the early stages of the financial crisis.
Revisiting valuation with the updated data gives you a 2020 fair value estimate of 1,394.88 ($87.18 x 16 = 1,394.88). Now, with close to 90% Q2 reported you are at $26.97 in GAAP EPS at the year mid-point, or a fair value of 863.04 ($26.97 x 2 = full year equivalent GAAP EPS of $53.94 x 16 = 863.04). I suspect Q3 and Q4 will be closer to $15.00 than the current projected $28.23 and $31.98. If so, the above valuation metrics would be similar to past episodes of GAAP EPS during the financial crisis, and that is without and mean inversion.