Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Futures hit limit down in five minutes.
This is what I anticipated. It seems that everyone I hear on CNBC or stock reports is saying stay the course, but that assumes this is a normal event.
In any event like this, there's a bell curve of outcomes ranging from best case to most likely case to worst case. It seems to me that everyone I hear on TV is on the best case slope of that bell curve. We need to take a hard look at the most likely middle of the bell curve, which is...
No vaccine in the foreseeable future.
Many Americans continue to ignore the guidelines of social distancing.
The rate of progression slows, but the number of cases continues to grow at a slower compounded rate.
Promising treatments reduce death rates, ICU rates, and hospitalization rate of increase, but the total number of deaths, ICU admissions, and hospitalizations continue to increase rapidly.
Some hospitals will run out of beds/supplies in early April. If you think the news is ugly now, wait two weeks.
Some governors will declare martial law. If you're outside and not a first responder or essential, you're detained/arrested.
Look at where we were one week ago. Now, take a hard look at where we are today. Now, look at Italy and imagine that we get there in the next 2-3 weeks.
I don't see Dow 18,000 as remotely close to the bottom. If you're in the market, I would suggest getting out and waiting until the market bottoms and goes back up for several days in a row.