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Who's gaming the market? At the risk of oversimplifying, all the author is saying is to assume a sufficient investment horizon which would allow for some periods of flat (or even negative) returns. That's about it along with a lot of data to indicate very low retirement savings by a bulk of the population. If anything, the guy is saying the market is going to game them for waiting too late.
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Savings drives retirement and not the investment return. Pretty clear from the statics quoted that is correct. Most believe that investment return drives the retirement bucket. Our friend Sally Vix often quotes 11% historical equity returns where the 20 year track record is far below that even when looking back from near record highs. Investors pay no attention to valuation and think the magic of buy and hold will lead to retirement success. Well that has not been the record of the last 20 years. That is history and not anyone’s opinion. Now if Central Banks have magicallly changed the future equations, well that is another matter.
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My belief is that the fed, the president, and the congress know that since the demise of the common pension and the advent of the 401K, that the retirement viability of vast portions of our population are dependent on the solvency of the stock market, and they will do what they can to see it does not adversely impact the majority of the population.
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A more sinister view, since 90% of the assets are owned by the top couple of percent, they well do what they can to protect their advantage. The reality is few things in life can maintained on a foundation built on sand. I believe I learned that parable in Sunday school.
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Actually the article is not all bad. But it's like preaching to the choir. The only people who will read it are the ones who probably don't need to hear it - the ones who are well invested and informed and have been following a retirement strategy for years.
I've heard bits and pieces of this message for a while and it's nothing new, but this article does cover it comprehensively and with data. Good read. Got to get back to it now and finish it.
Thx. -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Savings drives retirement and not the investment return. Pretty clear from the statics quoted that is correct. Most believe that investment return drives the retirement bucket. Our friend Sally Vix often quotes 11% historical equity returns where the 20 year track record is far below that even when looking back from near record highs. Investors pay no attention to valuation and think the magic of buy and hold will lead to retirement success. Well that has not been the record of the last 20 years. That is history and not anyone’s opinion. Now if Central Banks have magicallly changed the future equations, well that is another matter.
If a retiree only saved for 20 years, then they deserve what they get. -
Tyson Food as a pure buy and hold stock to add to your retirement mix. Will they remain one of the secure players in the food sector?
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Peleton is cycling to oblivion while Boeing and Tesla are taking investors for a ride.
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Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Peleton is cycling to oblivion while Boeing and Tesla are taking investors for a ride.
I’ve done quite well with Boeing in recent months. If you get all weepy with the occasional bump in the road, then you should not be in the markets. This is not for the faint of heart. Stick with CDs. You won’t make much, but you’ll sleep better. Leave the markets to the big boys. -
Better punt on your BA before the football gets blocked.
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seattle prattle wrote:
Actually the article is not all bad. But it's like preaching to the choir. The only people who will read it are the ones who probably don't need to hear it - the ones who are well invested and informed and have been following a retirement strategy for years.
I've heard bits and pieces of this message for a while and it's nothing new, but this article does cover it comprehensively and with data. Good read. Got to get back to it now and finish it.
Thx.
Like most zerohedge articles, their predictions and prognostication tends to rely on an overly bearish thesis. As long as the Fed keeps the rate low then there's no need to panic. And I'm sure Powell will reiterate their extremely dovish policy today at the end of the FOMC meeting. -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Better punt on your BA before the football gets blocked.
Nah man, buy the dip on Boeing. One little plane problem isn't going to hurt a giant defense contractor. Like I said, they got execs in the right place and congress people nice and paid off. -
seattle prattle wrote:
My belief is that the fed, the president, and the congress know that since the demise of the common pension and the advent of the 401K, that the retirement viability of vast portions of our population are dependent on the solvency of the stock market, and they will do what they can to see it does not adversely impact the majority of the population.
Igy: You've often question my reasoning for my "It's Different this Time" belief. Asking why I feel that way.
I posted why shortly after I got on here, but have never had the energy to dig back (probably 4 years ago) for that post. Or, re-post it.
But when I read this one, it is pretty much what I posted back then in a nutshell. -
Let me just add, that's why I have never bought in to your massive drop, or major sustained drop, happening in the market. Short of some major catastrophic national or world event.
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mellon wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
My belief is that the fed, the president, and the congress know that since the demise of the common pension and the advent of the 401K, that the retirement viability of vast portions of our population are dependent on the solvency of the stock market, and they will do what they can to see it does not adversely impact the majority of the population.
Igy: You've often question my reasoning for my "It's Different this Time" belief. Asking why I feel that way.
I posted why shortly after I got on here, but have never had the energy to dig back (probably 4 years ago) for that post. Or, re-post it.
But when I read this one, it is pretty much what I posted back then in a nutshell.
I'm not gonna necessarily disagree, but that's assuming the Fed, the president, and congress have the money, intelligence, and actual power to prevent a jumbo collapse. Japan thought they could do it and they've been range bound since basically the 90s. The entire Nikkei is just the Bank of Japan trading with itself. Maybe they can develop policy quick enough and summon enough money in time to save any stock market crash or maybe not.
Fed just announced zero rate hikes for 2019 though and my ATH by end April prediction is still looking good. -
mellon wrote:
seattle prattle wrote:
My belief is that the fed, the president, and the congress know that since the demise of the common pension and the advent of the 401K, that the retirement viability of vast portions of our population are dependent on the solvency of the stock market, and they will do what they can to see it does not adversely impact the majority of the population.
Igy: You've often question my reasoning for my "It's Different this Time" belief. Asking why I feel that way.
I posted why shortly after I got on here, but have never had the energy to dig back (probably 4 years ago) for that post. Or, re-post it.
But when I read this one, it is pretty much what I posted back then in a nutshell.
Mellon,
Ok, that is fair. A contrary view, which I ascribe to, is that the Federal Reserve’s policies have created a massive asset bubble in stocks, bonds, commercial real estate and residential real estate. So what have they really delivered beyond massive amounts of debt throughout all levels of our society? Even at the February 2019 month end the 20 year inflation adjusted S&P 500 Index return is a meager 1.915% and with reinvested dividends 3.810%. Now my view is that it does not matter how high the market goes the reversion from this policy nonsense and overvaluation will take the market to around 1,000-1,200 S&P 500. Now I am sure you and others may be able to navigate a downturn to your advantage, but investors as a class cannot since every share must be held by someone thru each moment in time. I have no reason to wish anyone a bad investment outcome, however as an intellectual debate I see the conventional market belief driven by speculation and not driven by much that can be anchored to past market experience. Of course this goes to the heart of Quantitative Easing, negative interest rates, the wisdom of leveraging the corporate balance sheet to buyback stocks or pay dividends; really anything that has driven the mania of this investment era. Absolutely I can be wrong, my view is a practitioner in a social science and certainly human behavior is far from rational.
Good luck to you Mellon.
Igy -
wineturtle wrote:
Tyson Food as a pure buy and hold stock to add to your retirement mix. Will they remain one of the secure players in the food sector?
bump
to confirm the assumption there are no board posters who feel it would be a good time to add Tyson to their mix
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Wineturtle,
I have no opinion on TSN, but does not seem a great value at current price.
I would review the financials on page 23 of the 2018 Annual Report:
https://s22.q4cdn.com/104708849/files/doc_financials/quartely/2018/q4/TSN-FY18-10-K.pdf
The sales are relatively flat for five years, debt rising as company buys back stock at ever higher prices. Net income is up, but paid no taxes 2018 based on prior losses. I would review risk disclosures in annual statement.
Igy -
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Better punt on your BA before the football gets blocked.
I do not understand your football reference. Please explain. -
Sally Vix was outed as a Russian Troll Farmer around noon on Tuesday on the trump MB. Currently working some other scam.
