Running is not some mathematical problem where you just plug in some numbers and out comes a result. There are too many variables. The weather, tactics, health, conditioning, and talent are just some of the factors. Each of these in turn has many factors as well.
They run the race for a reason. Talent is just one factor. Injuries and general health can also factor is, as does tactics, peaking, and overall conditioning.
There are probably 7-8 guys (maybe more) who all have a chance at a medal. I'd count Rupp in that group, though I'd think he is near the later half of that group given his outdoor results so far. However, that can be deceiving as well. We don't know what his training or tapering for races is like right now.