Post OFFICIAL Mary Cain 5,000-meter Predictions HERE

Even if the 5 is not here event (yet), it is her best shot to make the US Senior World's team. This year.

unrealistically overambitious wrote:

the World Champs A-Standard is 15:18.00

the hurricain will run 15:17.99

15:21. Let's go Mary!

Salazar says she's just running for the USATF A Standard to have a back-up if something goes wrong in the 1500 at nationals:

http://www.oregonlive.com/trackandfield/index.ssf/2013/05/oregon_track_field_rundown_wed_10.html#incart_flyout_sports

.

15:46 is the standard, which means she'll probably look to come through 3k at 9:25-9:27 and the drop the pace a bit from there for a high-15:30s finish. I'm gonna say 15:38-high for my guess (15:38.81 if we're requiring predictions to the hundredth).

Also, Salazar says he believes she could probably run "15:20 or 15:30," but that's not the goal for this race.

Guys, she's not fast enough to run sub-15:30. Get real.

15:30's.

She has not disappointed yet, lets go 15:36.46. She runs right on pace for most of the race then just uses her speed to kick it in and grab the A standard.

NO PAIN NO CAIN

The "A" for world champs is 15:18 , Al want's her to have an option at nationals with the 5k , maybe she goes for it all targets 15:16-17 , gets her "A" standard ends up with multiple options.

I give her 15:17.

AlsGal goes out strong, gunning for the A... but the Cain Train derails in the middle somewhere:

15:59.9999999999 for Captain Caingaroo.

The 5000 is a bad idea for Cain now, whatever her time. Salazar's reason is to have a backup in Des Moines to the 1500. Nuts to that. If Cain runs an "A" at the Pre maybe they both will wise up. Trying to punch a ticket to Moscow at all costs is not worth it.

A risk/benefit assessment is in order.

It is not uncommon for runners to race over-distance and speed/shorter-distance. The 5000 is there in part because she will have to do rounds, something she has not really faced before.

I think that they are looking for things like how her form holds up when she gets tired and at a different pace than the 1500; how she finishes when fatigued; how she runs in a pack for an extended period, including how she manages race tactics (including when the front goes faster than she can go - remember her indoor race with a dominant runner).

What would be "OFFICIAL" about a prediction made here?

That was 2 miles, not 5K, and Cain did not compete with Dibaba. Dibaba ran alone. After Boston, Dibaba was injured and withdrew from the London Marathon.

I am old enough to remember both her and Icarus.

I'll go with 16:03

I'm going with 14:11.14. I'm sick and tired of Ms. Cain exceeding all my expectations. Beat that, sista!

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her prelim line of fit from few weeks ago was ~

55.0 / 2'00.4 ->

4'03.5

8'45.9

15'24.4

32'58.7

off 1500/800 training it woud not be expected for her to approach this

close to 15'30 in a perfect race woud look about her best currently...

ventolin^3 wrote:

her prelim line of fit from few weeks ago was ~

55.0 / 2'00.4 ->

4'03.5

8'45.9

15'24.4

32'58.7

off 1500/800 training it woud not be expected for her to approach this

close to 15'30 in a perfect race would look about her best currently...

Interesting. Does the projected 5000m get slower if we revise the under 400m / 800m / 1500m times to 54.0 / 1:59.0 / 4:04.0?

Anyway, I hope she takes a rip at breaking 15:18. It's pretty clear she can handle that pace to about 4000m, and from there, who knows?

Males--nobody cares if Cain is near, behind, ahead of your high school or all time PRs. No need to keep mentioning.

mz appropriation wrote:

Males--nobody cares if Cain is near, behind, ahead of your high school or all time PRs. No need to keep mentioning.

lol - my HS and lifetime PRs are REALLY slow and have 0 bearing on what I think Ms Cain might be able to do. [best of the lot is an 18:27 road 5k run a few years ago at age 44.]

I just thought Vent's "line of fit" needed a little bit of modifying. Cain ran a 55.7 400m as a freshman, so 54.0 seems like a reasonable guess for her current 400m speed in the context of her recent improvement. Her 1:59.51 was a great result, but she looked tight in the first 200m and got caught up in a bit of traffic at the end, so in the Ventolin world, I'd say it's "worth" 1:59.0. From there I'm curious what the "line of fit" master himself has to say.