Sub 90?

yea I dont see why not

I think you'll definitely break 90 with your 10k time trial, you'll probably break 88.

Just pace it right, should be no problem

The fact that you ran 14:30, even though it was at an earlier time when you were more fit, shows talent that most of us could only dream of having.

Your 10k TT result shows that it will certainly be tough, but again, as a prior 14:30 guy, my money says you will pull it off.

Thanks all for the thoughts so far.

Any advice on pacing it?

My main concern from my tempos is controlling the pace early on as it feels more natural moving a bit quicker than 6:50s

The result for those guys who offered advice was 1hr 26.

Very surprised (and obviously pleased) with the outcome.

Now on to tackle a 3hr marathon.... can I do it off a similar training plan?

I tried to go sub-3 last December after running a 1:22 HM. It _should_ have been relatively easy, but I just didn't have the endurance (and didn't take nutrition seriously before & during the race).

Now I have my HM time down to 1:20 and I am making another sub-3 attempt in a couple of weeks. I feel well-prepared this time, but I have definitely increased my training volume. I don't think you need to cross training days to "save the legs". I think you need easy days to build up the legs so that you can handled 6-7 days a week of running with 1 day of speed/tempo and 1 long run.

HM debutant wrote:

The result for those guys who offered advice was 1hr 26.

Very surprised (and obviously pleased) with the outcome.

Now on to tackle a 3hr marathon.... can I do it off a similar training plan?

Excellent - I was pretty sure it was a done deal for you. As I mentioned earlier, even though you still needed to put in the training, your earlier days as a 14:30 guy showed that you had a lot of talent, and probably really good natural form as well. Having that history on your side improved your chances greatly, not to mention the simply psychological boost of knowing what it feels like to run at a high level.

And all the above is the reason why you will not only run sub-3, but will likely run sub-2:50 now that you are putting in regular training again. I would imagine the times will keep dropping at the pace of a brand-new runner (remember those days of big PRs every race?) as long as you continue with uninterrupted training. You may not get down to the sub-15 days again (or perhaps you may), but I can't see why you can't work hard and become at least a sub-16, sub-33, sub 1:13, sub 2:35 guy.

I am in a similar boat. I was a 17:0x, 35:2x guy around the same time you were at your prime, and I'm attempting a comeback as well. Last summer, I ran for about a month (at most), and jumped into a HM, running sub-1:20 pace (close to my PR) for 10 miles before dropping out, exhausted and done. But the point is that someone without some talent (as little as I have) would likely never be able to do this, no matter how hard the training is. Same with your recent HM time. It may not be fast, but it's certainly out of reach for the majority of runners, no matter what they do.

You have it in you to run fast, and I believe 100% that you can call it up again. Keep training hard, and by the fall you'll begin to see some real results.

HM debutant wrote:

The result for those guys who offered advice was 1hr 26.

Very surprised (and obviously pleased) with the outcome.

Now on to tackle a 3hr marathon.... can I do it off a similar training plan?

Congratulations!

You never mentioned your overall training volume leading up to the half.

That will likely be a big factor in how successful you are in translating the HM result to the Marathon. Overall mileage might not be as critical in the HM, but seems to be in the full.

I agree with the previous poster in that, given your background, I'd expect rapid improvement from just another training cycle and the consistency that comes with that. By the time you finish a new marathon training cycle, you likely will have chopped another chunk off your HM time, making the sub 3:00 even more likely.

I've seen folks with talent in high school/college that picked running up again later in life progress as follows:

woman (marathon): 3:13, 2:58, 2:52, 2:42, 2:37, 2:33

guy (HM, not as talented as the woman): 1:46, 1:42, 1:36, 1:34, 1:27, 1:23, 1:17, 1:13.

thanks again guys.

I probably peaked at about 30 miles of running with virtually half coming from the long run.

As I always was naturally stronger I figured my biggest challenge was raising my fitness over a 5 /10k so focused on some quality sessions.

Now planning to have a few weeks of doing no more than a couple of runs, then start a 12 week programme which will peak at about 45 miles made up from 4 days of running.

Reason for the limit is that time in the gym is also important to me. Where the future then takes me in terms of running I will wait and see.

In terms of my build, I enjoy not looking like a runner any more, but then if I remained injury free would probably like to see where I could take running to over the next couple of years.

Breaking 3 off of relatively little training would certainly encourage me to have a serious think about where I go!

To everyone who replied on my thread 4 or 5 months ago when I was getting ready for my HM debutant, I'm back now to ask for some predictions for my upcoming Marathon debut!

So after my half I took about a month off then started training again.

I've stuck to a 4 days a week 14 week programme, building from 30mpw up to 50ish mpw for past 6 weeks. Typical schedule is Tues 10, Wed tempo or intervals, Friday 10, Sunday Long run.

My longest run was 3 hours at apprx 8 m/miling, I've also done, 18, 20 & 20 mile runs.

Some other key runs /sessions include:

8 mile tempo at 6:15 pace

13m in 1:27:30 (rehearsal for pacing)

8*1k av. 3:30 with 400m jog

10@7:40 m/mile + 10@6:45

Any predictions or tips for pacing (especially as this is my first marathon) would be gratefully received.

Cheers

I think the key for the first marathon is to go out at a 5K pace in order to 'bank' some time for the later miles. You should strongly aim to run the initial 5K of the marathon sub-18. You may, at this point, choose to take a brief walk break to perform a quick 'system check' and ingest some fuel. You should then hit the next 10 miles very hard (no pain, no gain). You should be in good shape at this point to coast in the second half. Don't be scared to take the walk break, that helps keep some energy in the tank.

Good Luck!!

I'm no expert but I don't think that's a good idea

Sorry, but you'll run 3:10, first half in 1:27:30.

I think a sub-3:00 marathon is well within your reach. The key will be to lock in on your planned pace on race day, and not deviate from it even if you feel AWESOME in the first 10-15 miles. Get to the 20 mile mark on pace. Then, and only then, if you still feel incredibly fresh, go ahead and try going faster. You may find it takes a big effort just to maintain your pace at that point.

thanks very much to those who replied.

just under a week to go and well into a taper now.

plan is definitley to stick to the 3 hour pace maker (assuming they're on target) to 20 miles and then assess where im at.

hopefully i wont be back eating my own words but i can't see myself getting carried away and doing anything else.