can Rupp go sub 2:05 in the marathon?

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11 years ago 04/24/2013 4:20am EDT

re: insightlessness

These predictions and conversion charts are garbage, especially when you consider the differences between road running and track running, between running a course and running in a circle, between the distance, between having precise pacing and not.

I'm not saying that he "can't" do it, but I'm saying his track performances don't prove he can. Usain Bolt's don't either. He looks more like a track runner, Ryan Hall looks more like a road runner just based on build. It's just an intuitive observation.

11 years ago 04/24/2013 4:30am EDT

re: Not Number Two

Not Number Two wrote:
So, Bekele's 26:17 is good for a 2:01:06?
Somehow I think that these time conversion tools are a bit off.

The two performances are roughly comparable, but it does not mean that the same athlete can achieve them.

11 years ago 04/24/2013 5:00am EDT

re: jsjsj

jsjsj wrote:
Why do you think that? Bekele is head and shoulders above everyone in the 10k. Head and shoulders above everyone in the marathon would be under 2:02:00 don't you think? Wasn't Wanjiru running tactical marathons in 2:05? He was a 26:35 guy. Surely he could have run 2:03 or so if he time trialed a marathon.

Geb was a 26:22 guy, surely he could have gone more than 1 second under 2:04.

11 years ago 04/24/2013 5:34am EDT

re: Bad Wigins

It is very difficult.Until this moment there are 46 athletes sub 27'00''on 10.000 mt all time and only 7 of these sub 2h07'00''on marathon...

11 years ago 04/24/2013 5:39am EDT

re: douglas burke

douglas burke wrote:
oatmeal + water wrote:
aside from what you've read from trolls on the internet and their long-term relationship, what else leads you to believe this?
well like the example i gave with farah and rupp.

Was he testing out on Farah as double Olympic champion for Rupp!

American record for Rupp if he steps up to marathon

11 years ago 04/24/2013 2:38pm EDT

re: ukathleticscoach

11 years ago 04/24/2013 2:46pm EDT

re: yyy

If Rupp runs faster than 2:09, 50% of the top 10 US times will have been achieved with hormone therapy!

11 years ago 04/24/2013 3:19pm EDT

re: douglas burke

douglas burke wrote:
26:48 for 10000 means he SHOULD be capable 0f 2:03 (possibly dipping under the current world record in perfect conditions)-2:05 high.

I completely disagree. Nothing about 26:48 says 2:03:xx. Geb ran 26:22 and only managed 2:03:59, with multiple attempts on the distance. Tergat ran 26:27 and only managed 2:04:55 after years focusing specifically on the marathon.

2:05-high would project much more reasonably from 26:48.

I think that Rupp can go faster than this in the marathon, but 26:48 does NOT indicate it. (I think his 10,000 ability is more like 26:35 now, and I'd give him 2:04 high with a year specifically targeting it, and a near-prefect day.) (And Rupp-perfect is hard to get on the roads.)

douglas burke wrote:
salazar has not had as good success coaching the marathon as 10000 yet.

You've got that right.

douglas burke wrote:
by letting farah run the london marathon while he is at the top of his game at 5/10k, and at the SAME time saying he wont let rupp run a marathon until after the 2016 olympics, he is in my opinion using mo farah as his trial and error guinea pig for 2-3 years before he lets rupp run one.

I agree with you that Salazar would (and does) use one athlete's training as a "guinea pig" for another, but to be fair, Farah is four years older than Rupp. He has less upside on the track at this point, and definitely his time to strike in the marathon is now.

11 years ago 04/24/2013 3:24pm EDT

re: daryl basarab

daryl basarab wrote:
He looks more like a track runner, Ryan Hall looks more like a road runner just based on build. It's just an intuitive observation.

Nonsense. Tergat, Geb, Tadesse, Wanjiru -- these guy are completely different builds and all did fine on any surface they touched.

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