Notwithstanding the excitement over Mary Cain on this and other boards, my pick for NXN Girls Champ is Sarah Baxter. I figure her strategy is to lose Cain in the third kilometer putting a gap on her that she can't kick to close. Wet [muddy] conditions will only help. What do you think?
Does anyone actually think Cain is the favorite?
Baxter is the clear favorite. She's the defending champ (Cain finished 6th last year) and she's on a tear - breaking longstanding course records at Mt. Sac and Woodward Park.
The only question is how much she still has left in the tank.
Baxter will take it. She has definitely been holding back in every race except for State and Mount Sac
This is awesome. It will determine the 8th and 35th best runners in the country.
Too bad they won't be attending the National Championships.
only reason people are so interested in Cain is because she and Ajee Wilson are the only high schoolers who can compete with the best adults on the track.
As good as Baxter is, in the 5000 she could run what - 16 flat? Great for a high schooler, but hardly national class among the grownups.
And MC just looks like a bloody fast mid d runner - it is stupid to judge by a cover, but she looks the part. Baxter doesn't yet.
2nd rate meet wrote:
This is awesome. It [NXN] will determine the 8th and 35th best runners in the country. Too bad they won't be attending the National Championships [FL].
Umm, I don't think so...
While it is hard to compare runners who run in different races, there's a guy in NY who does a pretty good job. Meylan's speed ratings for FL(girls) in 2011 ranged from 160 for the top ranked runner to 132 for the 40th ranked runner. For NXN the top ranked runner was rated 154 and the 40th was 135. Score it 40 vs. 40 runners and it comes out pretty close to a tie. By the way, using the same analysis, the FL boys get slaughtered by the NXN boys. There's a Jethro Tull song released in 1969 that you must remember because, my friend, you are "Living in the Past". It's written in 5/4 time, unusual - just like your interpretation of the relative merits of HS national championship races.
agip wrote:
only reason people are so interested in Cain is because she and Ajee Wilson are the only high schoolers who can compete with the best adults on the track.
As good as Baxter is, in the 5000 she could run what - 16 flat? Great for a high schooler, but hardly national class among the grownups.
And MC just looks like a bloody fast mid d runner - it is stupid to judge by a cover, but she looks the part. Baxter doesn't yet.
We were talking about NXN. Besides, I can remember a lot of interest in Hasay when she was in high school and she certainly could not compete with the best adults.
Baxter may not look like a fast mid d runner, but when I watched her stride by a couple of times in Fresno last week she certainly looked the part of a potentially great future distance runner to me.
Don't count out Maria Hauger. She put in a ton of work last summer and may surprise.
Baxter's the clear favorite here. Even with her recently announced focus on the 1500-5k, cain has yet to show she is close to the level baxter is on an xc course
Rustamon wrote:
Notwithstanding the excitement over Mary Cain on this and other boards, my pick for NXN Girls Champ is Sarah Baxter. I figure her strategy is to lose Cain in the third kilometer putting a gap on her that she can't kick to close. Wet [muddy] conditions will only help. What do you think?
Hmmm, I'm considering a move into the prediction business... Baxter had Cain by 7 seconds at 4K. Cain kicks hard but can't close in the final kilometer (another 200m and she might have done it). Muddy conditions helped. I'm sure you are all on the edge of your seats waiting for the FL prediction. Wednesday...