Evan Jager 8:06.81 AR for 3rd Place!

Sine no one else has pointed it out:

This was a PR by TEN AND A HALF SECONDS .

.... well, part of it, anyway.

sorry. wrong link, ignore me.

Anyone who follows the steeple knows a few things.

1) Making the final is generally not challenging for most good steeplers. Avoiding traffic is ually the big concern, so the prelim races are usually led by Kenyans at a decent pace. If you can run under 8:30, and stick in their back pocket, your fine.

2) There are three classes of people in the steeplechase:

a. Kenyans

b. People who can run under 8:10

c. Other people in the race who will finish in the high 8:20s

People who are sub 8:10 runners are always medal contenders. They don't always get one, but they are usually in the mix. Keep in mind there have been very few Kenyan sweeps in history.

You also have to know how to be able to run up front and stay with the leaders. This isn't a flat race where you pick many people off as they die. If you're not in good position with two to go, and you're not Kenyan, you're done.

Even Jager is a sub 8:10 guy who knows who to stick with the leaders. He IS a medal contender.

Furthermore, look at the Kenyan team this year. Their third man is an unknown. It should be Paul Koech who would give them a better chance at gold (and I wish it was him) but its not. They also have Ezekiel Kemboi who is one of the best ever (if not the best) but he's dealing with potentially going to prison for a long time. I guarantee he's not sharp, and he probably won't be in the mix.

That leaves Brimin Kipruto. They ight as well send him the gold today.

As for silver and bronze, its between 5 or 6 guys in the race who are sub 8:10 guys and know how to run. I've been watching this race a long long time (and wasn't bad in it myself) and I can tell you I haven't seen anyone with as solid racing tactics as Jager has in a long time. He's a better shot at a medal than a lot of people. He'll be among the top 5 favorite on the starting line, and we'll see if he capitalizes.

Evan Jager chances for a medal? About the same as Bob Kennedy in 96.

113 wrote:

World #1 Paul Koech, as of now, is not on the Kenyan Olympic team.

World #2 Richard Mateelong ran 8:16 today.

World #5 Jairus Birech is not on the Kenyan Olympic team, and ran 8:10 today.

World #6 Conseslus Kipruto is not on the Kenyan Olympic team.

World #8 is Evan Jager.

World #9 Brahim Taleb ran 8:14 today.

So that leaves only Abel Mutai, Brimin Kipruto, and Roba Gari as athletes that are both a) going to be in the Olympic field and b) clearly better than Jager in 2012. Perhaps Paul Koech ends up in the field, but then he takes the place of Mutai, Kipruto, or Ezekial Kemboi. I don't see how AK would justify that after today's results, but it's clear that Jager is squarely in the medal hunt for London. Freaking awesome.

More important to Jager's chances regarding Mateelong is the fact that Mateelong isn't on the team. Of the 7 guys faster than Jager this year, it looks like only 3 are even going to the games.

not soo fast wrote:

Not to be a downer-obviously a great day for Jager-but it's always a little disappointing to me when an American Record occurs in a race that wasn't won. The best we've ever done was only 3rd place on some random day...

Most of our records are set without a win, Lagat's 5k = 2nd place, Galen Rupp's 10k = 3rd place. Well that's only two, but they're the most recent, placing top 3 at a Diamond League meet and losing to Koech and the Junior World Champ/Record holder in the event isn't too poor of a result. I can't imagine that Nick Willis is too sad about his NZ 1500m record today and finishing 3rd himself.

any vid of the Willis race? He might be a bit sad about being 2 seconds behind, which is a bigger concern than 3rd place. However he has proved that he can medal, but championship 1500m races tend to be unpredictable for the medal stand, the steeple..not so much. Like I posted earlier I give him a Bob kennedys chance in hell at a medal....which means with about 600 to go we are gonna trick ourselves into believing....but with 300 to go the dream will be over.....best of luck anyways.

Hayduke wrote:

any vid of the Willis race? He might be a bit sad about being 2 seconds behind, which is a bigger concern than 3rd place. However he has proved that he can medal, but championship 1500m races tend to be unpredictable for the medal stand, the steeple..not so much. Like I posted earlier I give him a Bob kennedys chance in hell at a medal....which means with about 600 to go we are gonna trick ourselves into believing....but with 300 to go the dream will be over.....best of luck anyways.

unclear post..sorry.... I think Willis has a better medal chance, but also feel his last medal has a bit to do with how anyone who makes the final in a 1500 has some sort of crazy shot.

Jager on the other hand....He will look like Kennedy with 600 to go, and finish like Kennedy. Between 5th and 8th place. The steeple is not a crap shoot, Odds are below 5% unless you are kenyan/morrocan, a "french" guy who isnt from france, or a juiced up guy from spain.

It was just a really brilliant run.

1500- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d5yKDBoHyDI Willis looks pretty happy to me

"The steeple is not a crap shoot, Odds are below 5% unless you are kenyan/morrocan, a "french" guy who isnt from france, or a juiced up guy from spain".

...or you take advantage of a fall on the last lap...or you're on an epic peak in 2012 while learning 50% more every time you run the event...

There are ways for Evan to medal. Plenty.

Steeple Fan wrote:

Anyone who follows the steeple knows a few things.

1) Making the final is generally not challenging for most good steeplers. Avoiding traffic is ually the big concern, so the prelim races are usually led by Kenyans at a decent pace. If you can run under 8:30, and stick in their back pocket, your fine.

How much will my fine be?

Willis looked pretty solid today closing very well in what must have een 40 flat or better last 300 , after trying the front end experiment last week and looking rough last 880, this looked pretty good.

He ran the NZ National Record I believe and a 1 second plus PR, he should be around late in the Games, certainly not the winner but a medal threat.

Jager ran awfully hard today, dropping to his AR in a PR by 11 secs. He also looked pretty good doing it and showed very good courage being right in that race connected the whole way. A huge talent , he is.

All his PRs: 3:54.x mile, 7:41.x 3K and 13:22 were almost three years ago, clearly he is way better now.

"french" guy who isnt from france, or a juiced up guy from spain.[/quote]

Mekhissi was born in France, raised in France so is French as far as we know.

jkp wrote:

"french" guy who isnt from france, or a juiced up guy from spain.

Mekhissi was born in France, raised in France so is French as far as we know.[/quote]

He was actually born in Algeria.

jkp wrote:

"french" guy who isnt from france, or a juiced up guy from spain.

Mekhissi was born in France, raised in France so is French as far as we know.[/quote]

Mahiedine Mekhissi-Benabbad celebrated his 3,000 meter Steeplechase race win by slapping around a mascot (again).

Immediately after crossing the finishline at the European Athletic Championships in Helsinki on Friday, the Algerian-born runner walked over to a teenage girl dressed as the championship’s mascot, “Appy,” knocked a gift bag out of her hands and shoved her.

Well he may act like he's from France, but he was born in Algeria.

Greatest performance by Jacobs hs guy ever. What are the odds this gets a mention in the Chicago papers?

Or a mention on the hs signboard on Randall road?

He was born in Reims, France in 1985, raised in France and is French.

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http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahiedine_Mekhissi-Benabbad

" né le 15 mars 1985 à Reims" ... which means he was born in Reims, France.

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http://londres.franceolympique.com/londres/athletes/0/mekhissi-benabbad-27570.php